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LONDON: The European Union’s deal-making machine has produced another deal.
Even in a year of momentous negotiations, on the pandemic recovery fund and rule of law safeguards, it is a remarkable achievement.
Four and a half years after the UK voted to leave the EU, London and Brussels have reached a free trade agreement that will frame their relationship for decades to come.
It will maintain trade in goods without tariffs or quotas in which the EU has a large surplus. It will help to alleviate the inevitable frictions that arise with the end of the transition period and will lay the groundwork for future talks on closer cooperation.
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RESONANT SUCCESS FOR THE EU
For the EU, this arduous task has always consisted of limiting the damage of a UK withdrawal that has few benefits. From that perspective, it has been a resounding success both in terms of process and strategy.
For a bloc that is often paralyzed by divergent interests among its member states, and for British politicians who had opted for divide and conquer tactics, it has provided a lesson in the power of unity.
The UK’s insistence on a close free trade agreement meant that the talks were delegated to the European Commission.
European Union flags fly outside the European Commission headquarters, where Brexit negotiations are taking place, in Brussels, Belgium, on December 24, 2020 (Photo REUTERS / Yves Herman).
EU capitals were happy to move on as they were increasingly exasperated by British indecision, their false ultimatums, and then a breach of trust when the UK government threatened to break parts of the withdrawal agreement.
European governments had other priorities. Michel Barnier, the skillful EU chief negotiator, kept them and the European Parliament well informed and maintained their confidence.
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BUT SUBSTANTIAL CONCESSIONS MADE
The EU undoubtedly made substantial concessions over the course of 2020. It gave up its demands that the Court of Justice of the European Union resolve the disputes and that the UK’s state aid, environmental and labor standards match those of the European Union.
He will also be busy with negotiations and disputes with London for years to come, even if this deal should provide a more stable relationship than the multiple transitional deals it has with Switzerland.
But the EU has achieved its main objectives. It has maintained internal unity to a remarkable degree, even with Eurosceptic governments more sympathetic to the Brexit cause. He defended a smaller member state, Ireland, which has the most to lose from leaving the UK.
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But all member states could lose out if the UK could undermine EU state aid, the environment or labor standards.
The integrity of the single market has been preserved. The UK has accepted binding restrictions and awards.
Brexit Britain won’t get its cake and eat it. The principle that access to the single market carries obligations was essential to preserve the deterrent effect of Brexit.
Political turmoil in the UK has made support for leaving the EU a political burden for Eurosceptics on the continent. Few openly defend it.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson delivers a press conference in Downing Street on the outcome of the Brexit negotiations, in London, Britain, on December 24, 2020. Paul Grover / Pool via REUTERS
The asymmetry of power in the process has been undeniable. The chaos in British ports this week following the closure of the French border has underscored the UK’s dependence on the goodwill of others.
BUT NOBODY IS A WINNER AT BREXIT
Brigid Laffan, a professor at the European University Institute in Florence, sees the success of the EU as proof that the bloc has entered a more assertive governance phase, concentrating its power and resources to protect its interests.
The Christmas Eve agreement culminates a year in which the EU has acted together to tackle a new economic crisis.
Brexit could have galvanized the EU, but it is probably an exception and not the new rule. There are many examples of European weakness stemming from its own divisions.
When another third country, Turkey, disputed the sovereign waters of an EU member state, a challenge to the integrity of the EU, the EU did little to reject because the interests of its members were not aligned.
The continued efforts by nationalist governments in Poland and Hungary to dismantle democratic standards and the rule of law are an existential threat to a union that is based on fundamental values and a common legal order.
The effects of Brexit on internal EU policymaking will continue for years to come.
It has already moved the equilibrium away from the liberal-minded Atlantic states. It has forced other countries, including the Netherlands, out of British shelters to defend their own interests. It has given more influence to France and Germany.
Ultimately, says Catherine de Vries, a professor at Bocconi University in Milan, much will depend on how Britain fares abroad. “If it looks like the UK will do well in 10 years, it will create an interesting dynamic.”
However, before that, the UK and EU will have to adjust to the frictionless end of trade. Even with this deal, no one is a winner.
