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TASMANIA: The Malaysian Parliament will sit for a single day on May 18.
This event is highly anticipated in the country’s political circles, as it is the first time that Parliament will meet since a new government was formed on March 1.
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To recall, in the last week of February, the Pakatan Harapan (PH) government imploded when Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia suddenly announced that it would leave the ruling coalition and join the United National Organization of Malaysia (UMNO) and Parti Islam. Malaysia (PAS) to form a new ruling coalition, Perikatan Nasional (PN).
To the surprise of many, after a series of confusing events, Muhyiddin Yassin, Bersatu’s number two, took over as Malaysia’s eighth prime minister. Many had thought that Mahathir Mohamad would return as prime minister of the PN coalition.
The sudden change of government created political uncertainty and charges of political illegitimacy were launched.
Malaysian Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin speaks during a press conference in Putrajaya, Malaysia on March 11, 2020. (Photo: REUTERS / Lim Huey Teng)
Voters clearly voted UMNO in the landmark 2018 general election, according to the narrative. However, less than two years later, UMNO not only returned to power. This time, it was the largest bloc in the new ruling coalition.
POLITICAL SHOTS AND TURNS
The two months of PN coalition rule have taken some surprising twists and turns.
The first is Muhyiddin’s demonstrated ability to hold on to power. This is not an easy task. The man he replaced, Mahathir, has not stopped his campaign to take down Muhyiddin to get his job back.
Mahathir had always believed that he had a majority in Parliament and it was the King’s prerogative that allowed Muhyiddin to take advantage.
READ: Comment: Muhyiddin Yassin, the seasoned politician, who rose to the pinnacle of Malaysian power
READ: Comment: Was the Pakatan Harapan Coalition doomed to failure from the start?
But now, Mahathir has warned Muhyiddin. The speaker has submitted and accepted a motion of no confidence in Muhyiddin. If Muhyiddin loses the vote, the political convention requires him to hand over the office.
But I don’t think this will happen. Under current rules, government business takes precedence and therefore Mahathir’s trust is unlikely to see the light of day on May 18.
Second, the past two months have revealed a covert conflict in the PN coalition between Bersatu, UMNO and PAS. UMNO (along with the remaining Barisan Nasional bloc) and PAS have decided to work as a single bloc within PN and collectively have about 60 MPs.
Muhyiddin’s Bersatu and friendly but smaller parties represent far fewer MPs. The 18-member Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) Sarawak bloc is not officially part of the PN but will likely support Muhyiddin’s leadership.
Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu (PBB), Parti Rakyat Sarawak (PRS), Progressive Democratic Party (PDP) and Sarawak United People’s People’s Party (SUPP) form the Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) coalition. (Photo: Bernama)
Given the influence of UMNO and PAS, there is tremendous pressure on Muhyiddin to give them more political power.
Third, and this is truly ironic, Bersatu is officially divided. Muhyiddin was unable to fire Mahathir from Bersatu after the February crisis, and Mahathir remains the president of Bersatu.
Mukhriz, Mahathir’s son and political heir, is challenging Muhyiddin for the Bersatu presidency later this year.
Mahathir knows that he still dominates with important figures at the party. Syed Saddiq, head of the Navy, the youth wing of Bersatu, who was also minister of Youth and Sports, has openly called on Muhyiddin to leave the PN and return to PH.
READ: Comment: Mahathir Mohamad remains the eye of the political storm brewing in Malaysia
READ: Comment: Malaysia’s political carousel hits its economy
WHAT COVID-19 HAS CHANGED
Fourth, in the midst of the COVID-19 outbreak, the most popular leader in Malaysia is not Muhyiddin but the Director General of the Ministry of Health, Dr. Noor Hisham, a public official.
He has been doing daily press reports. Surveys conducted after the polls show that he is the most popular person in the country, so there are calls for Muhyiddin to appoint him as Minister of Health.
Malaysian Chief Health Officer Noor Hisham Abdullah. (Stock Photo: Bernama)
Fifth, the COVID-19 crisis has paralyzed Malaysia’s economy, like other countries in the world. The economy is front and center in the minds of the Malays. Millions are out of work, but restarting the economy will not be an easy task.
WHERE IS ANWAR IBRAHIM?
You may ask, where does Anwar Ibrahim figure in all these political games? The short answer is that it is still in the game, but is marked as a “reserve” out of the game.
Officially, he is the leader of the opposition in parliament, but everyone knows that if the prime minister’s role becomes vacant for one reason or another, Mahathir will be first in line. Mahathir is determined to get his job back before the next general election scheduled for 2023.
The amazing thing is that no one talks about Mahathir’s age, 95 years old this year, but everyone in Kuala Lumpur is hoping he will return to office if PN falls apart.
Anwar’s biggest challenge is his attractiveness to rural Malays. Your Partai Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) must make deeper inroads into the heart of Malaysia if he wants to gain more support for PKR.
However, at present, Malaysian politics has been seen as a fight between UMNO, PAS and Bersatu, leaving little room for Anwar and PKR. Anwar must wait for an opening, possibly even a split in the PN coalition, before he can form an alliance that can reach a wider Malaysian audience. Most of the Malay community that believes in multiracial politics is already in PKR.
READ: Explainer: What are the possible scenarios for a mistrust motion in the Malaysian parliament?
WHERE IS THE REST OF THE PH COALITION
Where does this leave the Democratic Action Party (DAP), the largest party in PH? This China-based party seems to be the most cohesive.
During the recent political crisis, only three DAP state assembly members switched sides. Its parliamentary wing remains largely intact. This is in stark contrast to the 11 PKR MPs who defected or left the party.
In a twisted way, DAP is actually politically stronger now. While in the PH government, DAP was accused of adopting a lackluster attitude towards Chinese problems and making too many commitments with Mahathir, who was seen as a strong Malay nationalist.
The DAP came under strong regular criticism from Chinese non-governmental organizations and interest groups, especially those promoting the Chinese language and culture.
Democratic Action Party Secretary General Lim Guan Eng (front row, center) speaking at a press conference on February 24, 2020. (Screebgrab: Facebook / Democratic Action Party)
Now that DAP has returned to the opposition, its supporters have changed their minds. They now think that the new PN government will only pursue a pro-Malaysian agenda and that they should therefore provide more support to DAP to counter this strong claim by Malaysian political power.
THE SHOWDOWN CANNOT BE MATERIALIZED ON MAY 18
The chances of Mahathir’s vote of mistrust being discussed are slim. As previously mentioned, Parliament is slated to sit only a few hours on May 18. If the protocols are followed, the King will give a speech in which the agenda for the government will be exposed, and Parliament will be suspended later.
Even if there is time, government affairs will probably take priority. In any case, the Malaysian government may file a separate confidence motion with Prime Minister Muhyiddin, making Mahathir’s motion irrelevant.
So Mahathir, the PH coalition and more will have to fight another day.
In any case, there is little appetite for change. Ordinary Malays may spark their interest, but they don’t really care about these political maneuvers. Malaysians are much more concerned with the economy and COVID-19.
READ: Comment: Restrictions on movements in some Southeast Asian countries to fight COVID-19 have been uneven, even frightening
READ: Comment: Malaysia is exceeding all these brutal expectations of COVID-19
The Movement Control Order (MCO) has exposed Malaysia’s economic weakness and dire state of affairs for those in the lowest social economic class.
Countless reports from political parties and NGOs delivering rice to many households highlight the economic side of this coronavirus crisis.
Perhaps, in a time of coronavirus, politics is a game that the wealthy can afford to play. For ordinary Malays, the immediate need is a job they can return to so they can put food on the table.
READ: Comment: Three underlying forces fueled Malaysia’s recent political crisis
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Professor James Chin is a professor of Asian studies at the University of Tasmania and a senior fellow at the Jeffrey Cheah Institute in Southeast Asia.
