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NEW DELHI: Not surprisingly, the Myanmar coup is testing the patience of the international community.
The protesters have called for an external intervention, after three deaths. After being doused with water cannons, rubber bullets and more, they await an imminent use of more lethal force by the military.
But unsurprisingly, the international community has been unable to launch a coordinated approach, apart from the expected strong statements from the UN Security Council on February 4 and the UN Human Rights Council on February 12.
UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres and other world leaders may have condemned the brutality of the military over the past week.
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres addresses the media during a joint press conference in Berlin, Germany, on December 17, 2020 (File Photo: Michael Sohn / Pool via REUTERS).
But that only led to an illicit response from Myanmar’s Foreign Ministry on February 22 that the authorities were “exercising the utmost restraint” in refuting the convictions and calling them “flagrant interference” in the internal affairs of Myanmar as a country. sovereign.
STRONGEST WORDS FROM ASEAN
However, what has raised some eyebrows are the stern words of Myanmar’s closest Southeast Asian compatriots.
Malaysia views the political situation in Myanmar as a “serious” development and a “step backwards in the country’s democratic process,” said Prime Minister Muhyiddin’s Yassin, warning that political unrest there could “affect peace and stability in the region. “on February 4. during his visit to Indonesia.
READ: Comment: An offensive in Myanmar could trigger a humanitarian crisis
Calling the situation “alarming”, Singaporean Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan also warned of serious consequences for Myanmar and the region if the situation continued to escalate in his response to a question from Parliament on February 16.
Even Thailand, which has a history of military coups, called on ASEAN nations to take a “collective position” on the issue.
The terrain may have changed further after two protesters died over the weekend after police opened fire on the demonstrations, and Singapore’s Foreign Ministry called the use of lethal weapons against civilians “unforgivable” the February 20th.
READ: Comment: How Myanmar’s military took advantage of the COVID-19 pandemic in its seizure of power
Both the Singaporean and Indonesian Foreign Ministers also expressed grave concern over ongoing developments and discussed further steps for ASEAN to address the situation in Myanmar on February 18.
Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi also stressed on Tuesday (February 23) that Myanmar’s transition to democracy must follow the wishes of its people and urged ASEAN to redouble its efforts to mediate between the junta and protesters.
FILE PHOTO: Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi delivers her speech during a press conference with Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi in Jakarta, Indonesia on January 10, 2020 (REUTERS / Ajeng Dinar Ulfiana / File photo)
WHAT’S BEHIND STRONGER WORDS
To some extent, Indonesia’s and Malaysia’s strong words for Myanmar have been less surprising, given their consistently tough stance on the country to take responsibility for the Rohingya crisis and put its house in order or face repercussions.
They have been under heavy pressure to take this position since 2017 from the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, which also lobbied for the Rohingya case to be heard at the International Court of Justice last year.
And while many observers have noted that Singapore’s rhetoric on the Myanmar coup seemed unusually aggressive, history shows that Singapore has taken a consistent and principled stance based on the rule of law and national responsibility for domestic issues. His position on the Rohingya crisis is instructive.
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“To be brutally honest, this is a man-made humanitarian disaster and something that should not be happening these days,” Dr. Balakrishnan said in October 2018 when he lobbied ASEAN’s efforts to resolve the situation in Rakhine. .
Indeed, while enthusiastic observers point to the lack of reference to the Rohingya crisis in ASEAN statements, during Singapore’s 2018 presidency, ASEAN countries worked hard, away from media attention, to ensure Myanmar’s commitment to take concrete action.
ASEAN should be given credit for pushing to facilitate the voluntary return of displaced persons and the implementation of the recommendations of the Advisory Committee on the State of Rakhine headed by former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan.
A similar behind-the-scenes ferry diplomacy has been at stake in the past two weeks, with Indonesia spearheading efforts with other ASEAN foreign ministers to find a solution to the crisis.
READ: Comment: The influence of the Myanmar army is actually declining, despite appearances
Marsudi has been traveling through Southeast Asia to gather support from ASEAN members for a special summit to discuss next steps. He may also be leading more indirect talks with the Tatmadaw to find a compromise and prevent further violent repressions.
BE CAREFUL NOT TO EXCEED YOURSELF
Indeed, the ASEAN countries are lucid and know that they cannot publicly push too hard given the lack of unanimity on the approach to take within the group.
They are also aware that their actions could appear to be foreign interference in national politics even to anti-coup protesters, after comments that Indonesia is pushing for ASEAN to send election monitors if the junta holds national elections prompted threats. of demonstrations at the Indonesian Embassy. in Yangon on February 23.
ASEAN countries know that they must be careful not to exaggerate and put too much pressure on Myanmar or suggest that they can offer solutions to the country’s complex problems.
On the one hand, they can be drawn into debates about how far they may be willing to back down in their rhetoric, where the reality is that most have significant business interests in Myanmar, particularly Singapore, the largest investor bringing in more than S $ 24 billion. . capital in 2019.
Balakrishnan had to walk a tightrope by clarifying that he would not presume to tell the Singaporean business community what to do after the coup to urge against the use of widespread sanctions.
Singapore’s Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan speaking in Parliament on February 16, 2020.
“I am confident that companies making investment and business decisions will also pay attention to the political context of where they are looking to invest.”
WHAT LA ASEAN BRINGS TO THE TABLE
ASEAN must also avoid being dragged into the power game as major countries and segments of the international community seek levers to exert greater pressure on Myanmar.
The United States knows that its actions, even combined with other Western countries, will not move the needle in Myanmar and will seek to build a coordinated international approach in which ASEAN plays a leading role.
There are signs this is underway when White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan spoke with ASEAN ambassadors, urging them to support the “immediate restoration” of democracy in Myanmar and Secretary of State Antony Blinken doing the same with his counterparts.
READ: Comment: US sanctions on Myanmar will not reverse the coup
Americans know Myanmar will be more willing to listen to and interact with neighboring ASEAN states, given the country’s heavy anathema to Western interference seen during the 2008 Cyclone Nargis disaster relief efforts.
The ASEAN Humanitarian Task Force for Victims of Cyclone Nargis (AHTF), recently created by the regional bloc, played a leadership role in helping coordinate international relief and rehabilitation efforts.
Furthermore, Washington understands that an advantage of ASEAN taking the lead is the grouping’s ability to gain support from both China and Russia.
READ: Comment: Myanmar Coup Raises Biden’s First Foreign Policy Test in Southeast Asia
BETTER HOPE YET
ASEAN countries may suffer from ups and downs in the severity of the approach they take towards member states like Myanmar where differences arise, but this will not be the last time that Southeast Asian countries express tougher positions than expected.
Former Singaporean senior diplomat Bilahari Kausikan had already highlighted how ASEAN membership should not be taken for granted and can be revoked if actions by member states are detrimental to the collective interests of the bloc.
More importantly, something horrible has gone wrong in Myanmar and the pressure cannot budge.
It was a usurpation of power by the military against the wishes of the overwhelming majority of voters. A democratically elected government was rejected on baseless electoral accusations.
There may be limitations to what ASEAN can achieve, as any turning back of the clock and a return to democracy is in the hands of the Tatmadaw. But ASEAN remains the world’s best hope for furthering the situation in Myanmar.
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Dr. Nehginpao Kipgen is a political scientist, associate professor and executive director of the Center for Southeast Asian Studies at the Jindal School of International Affairs, OP Jindal Global University. He is the author of three books on Myanmar, including Democratization of Myanmar.
