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SINGAPORE – China could abandon the nine-dash line, which underpins its claim to up to 90 percent of the disputed waters in the South China Sea, without damaging its long-term interests, a Chinese military expert said on Friday September 18). .
In fact, leaving the line would boost their soft power and help the country win friends in Asean, added Dr. Li Nan, visiting principal investigator from the East Asia Institute (EAI).
“This is the time for China to give up the nine-dash line. It doesn’t work in their interest,” Dr. Li said during a webinar on the maritime dispute, which was organized by EAI and ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute.
Speakers for The South China Sea Dispute: US-China Rivalry, Lawfare, and the prospects for a code of conduct were mostly academic. They agreed that Asean and China were unlikely to issue guidelines on actions in the South China Sea before next year’s deadline, given the Covid-19 pandemic.
Clashes between China and Asean claimant states such as the Philippines and Vietnam in the disputed waters have increased this year.
Tensions are also rising between China and Indonesia. The latter filed a protest with Beijing earlier this month after a Chinese coast guard ship spent two days in Indonesia’s exclusive economic zone, off the Natuna islands in the South China Sea.
China’s nine-dash line, which is in conflict with international maritime law but which China uses to reclaim the waters around the Natuna Islands, is at the center of the dispute.
Dr. Li said that the Chinese coast guards have had to enforce their jurisdiction according to the nine-point line and “that caused all the problems with the coastal states.”
He added that abandoning the nine-line line will serve China’s interests, including boosting the country’s soft power.
He noted that China had granted parts of the nine-dash line earlier, in the early 1950s, when it removed two dashes as a gesture to its communist comrades in northern Vietnam.
But Chinese leaders could face a backlash from institutions like the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) if they make similar concessions again, he said.
“What really drives Chinese foreign policy is not so much public opinion as institutional dynamics,” he added.
“If China really decides to change the nine-point line … I don’t think the PLA would like that.”
Dr. Li’s comments prompted a reprimand from co-panelist Le Hong Hiep, a member of the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute.
Dr. Le said, “China deleted two dashes … but again, in 2010, it added another script in the East China Sea. So, I’m not sure if China really makes any concessions regarding the nine-dash line.” .
“But I totally agree with Dr. Li that it would be a great idea and good for China’s soft power if it completely left the nine-point line,” he added.
In 2016, an international tribunal of the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ruled that China’s claim in the South China Sea, using the nine-dash line, had no legal basis, after the Philippines took the case to court. .
The United States explicitly sided with the ruling for the first time in July this year.
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