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Since the US media declared Joe Biden’s victory in the White House on Saturday, President Donald Trump has refused to budge and has repeatedly made unsubstantiated claims of voter fraud.
Trump’s team has filed legal challenges in at least five key states, but experts see the possibility of the courts overturning the result of the vote as extremely small. And an orderly manual recount in Georgia is unlikely to nullify Biden’s small lead.
Here’s an update nine days after Election Day on how long the vote can be contested and if Biden’s victory is in jeopardy:
– When will the results be final? –
Although the US media projected Biden as the winner in key states like Pennsylvania, the final votes were still being counted.
At the same time, Georgia has already announced that its votes will be counted by hand and a recount is also possible in Wisconsin.
However, each state has its deadline for officials to certify election results: Georgia has until November 20, Pennsylvania is November 23, and Arizona is November 30.
“In fact, I don’t think we’re going to wait until all the states have been formally certified,” said John Fortier, an elections specialist at the Bipartisan Policy Center, an organization that aims to bridge the Republican-Democratic divide.
“As things progress in the counting and reconciliation and perhaps as some of the challenges down the road are not working or not many votes change … the margins, while close, will seem too large for any one kind of additional legal action, “he added.
Experts point out that the actual deadline is December 14, when the all-important Electoral College meets in each state to formally elect the president based in principle on the popular vote of each state.
That deadline was even met in 2000, when George W. Bush beat Democrat Al Gore after five weeks of legal battles over stories.
– Does the Rival Electoral College vote? –
Trump’s attacks on the integrity of the elections have raised concerns that the popular vote is not being honored in the Electoral College.
One scenario involves states where the governor’s office and the legislature are in the hands of rival parties, each certifying its own list of opposing voters.
“It’s extremely unlikely, but it’s worrying that it’s being discussed,” said Barry Burden, a political scientist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
That scenario is a potential risk in battle states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which the US media called out for Biden, but have Democratic governors and Republican-controlled legislatures.
In the case of dual lists, the electoral dispute would end before the United States Congress, which meets on January 6 to tabulate the electoral college votes and formally designate the next president.
However, several key states would have to submit rival electoral votes to question Biden’s victory, which experts interviewed by AFP considered out of the question.
– What if Trump never gives in? –
“Trump will likely never accept his loss,” Burden said. “He continues to complain about the 2016 elections that he believes were rigged against him, even though he won fairly.”
Biden would still be inaugurated as president on January 20, 2021, but the refusal to concede casts a cloud over the former vice president’s victory.
“Just asking the question may be enough, that may be all the campaign hopes to do,” Burden added.
Fortier, an election specialist at the Bipartisan Policy Center, said: “I think there will be a peaceful transition of power, absolutely.”
“I am not sure there will be lasting damage … and the presidency will proceed whether there is a friendly transition or not,” he added.
cat / la / jm / ft
