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WASHINGTON: Democrat Joe Biden leads national polls and most states on the battlefield before Election Day, but President Donald Trump insists they are wrong and that he will repeat his dismal 2016 victory.
Biden, the 77-year-old former vice president, has enjoyed a solid lead over Trump, 74, in national polls for months, reaching double digits at times.
But the US presidential elections are not decided by popular vote.
They are won in the 538-member Electoral College, where each state has a number of electoral votes equal to its representation in the House and Senate.
And electoral votes from states on the battlefield like Florida and Pennsylvania could determine the winner of Tuesday’s battle for the White House.
Here’s a look at the latest national polls and polls in key states on the battlefield:
NATIONAL SURVEYS
An average of national polls from the RealClearPolitics (RCP) website gives Biden a 6.8-point lead over Trump: 50.7% to 43.9%.
That’s roughly in line with averages from other leading outlets like FiveThirtyEight.com, which has Biden at 8.4 points nationally.
Biden’s national lead is more than double that of Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election, when polls were relatively accurate regarding the popular vote, which she won while losing in the Electoral College.
FLORIDA
In Florida, Biden has a 1.7-point lead over Trump, according to the average of RCP state polls.
A Siena College / New York Times poll saw Biden rise three points in the Sunshine State, but a Washington Post / ABC News poll saw the Republican rise two points.
Trump won Florida and his 29 electoral votes in 2016 and winning the state again is seen as crucial to his hopes of victory.
PENNSYLVANIA
In Pennsylvania, Biden has a 2.9-point lead, according to the RCP poll average in the state of Keystone, which has 20 electoral votes.
Trump won Pennsylvania by just 44,000 votes in 2016 and his re-election hopes may hinge on taking over the state again.
MICHIGAN, WISCONSIN
Michigan and Wisconsin are two Midwestern states that Trump narrowly won in 2016, but the RCP averages lag him behind in both this time.
According to PCR averages, Biden is up 5.1 points in Michigan, which has 16 electoral votes, and 6.6 points in Wisconsin, which has 10 electoral votes.
ARIZONA, NORTH CAROLINA
The battlefield states of Arizona and North Carolina, which Trump won in 2016, are also being closely watched.
Based on RCP averages, Biden has a 0.5 point advantage in Arizona, which has 11 electoral votes, while Trump has a 0.5 point advantage in North Carolina, which has 15 electoral votes.
GEORGIA, IOWA, OHIO, TEXAS
This time, four other states are also being watched closely: Georgia (16 electoral votes), Iowa (six), Ohio (18) and Texas (38).
Trump won all four states with relative ease in 2016, but polls show close races this time.
Trump is up 0.2 points in Georgia, based on the RCP average, a state Trump won by 5.1 points in 2016.
Trump is up 1.4 points in Iowa (he gained 9.4 points four years ago) and 1.4 points in Ohio, a significantly smaller margin than his 8.1-point win last time out.
Trump won Texas, one of the night’s biggest awards, by nine points in 2016, but the RCP average gives him a small 1.2-point lead before Tuesday’s vote.
An average of national polls conducted by the RealClearPolitics (RCP) website gives Biden a 6.7-point lead over Trump: 51% to 44.3%.
That’s roughly in line with averages from other leading outlets like FiveThirtyEight.com, which has Biden at 8.5 points nationally.
Biden’s national lead is more than double that of Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election, when polls were relatively accurate with respect to the popular vote, which she won while losing in the Electoral College.
FLORIDA
In Florida, Biden is one point ahead of Trump, according to the average of RCP state polls.
A Siena College / New York Times poll saw Biden rise three points in Sunshine State, but a Washington Post / ABC News poll saw the Republican rise two points.
Trump won Florida and his 29 electoral votes in 2016 and winning the state again is seen as crucial to his hopes of victory.
PENNSYLVANIA
In Pennsylvania, Biden has a 4.3-point lead, according to the RCP polling average in the state of Keystone, which has 20 electoral votes.
Trump won Pennsylvania by just 44,000 votes in 2016 and his re-election hopes may hinge on taking over the state again.
MICHIGAN, WISCONSIN
Michigan and Wisconsin are two Midwestern states that Trump narrowly won in 2016, but the RCP averages lag him behind in both this time.
According to PCR averages, Biden is up 5.1 points in Michigan, which has 16 electoral votes, and 6.6 points in Wisconsin, which has 10 electoral votes.
ARIZONA, NORTH CAROLINA
The battlefield states of Arizona and North Carolina, which Trump won in 2016, are also being closely watched.
According to RCP averages, Biden has a one-point advantage in Arizona, which has 11 electoral votes, while Trump leads by 0.6 points in North Carolina, which has 15 electoral votes.
GEORGIA, IOWA, OHIO, TEXAS
This time, four other states are also being watched closely: Georgia (16 electoral votes), Iowa (six), Ohio (18) and Texas (38).
Trump won all four states with relative ease in 2016, but polls show close races this time.
Biden is up 0.4 points in Georgia, based on the RCP average, a state Trump won by 5.1 points in 2016.
Trump is up 1.4 points in Iowa (he gained 9.4 points four years ago) and 0.2 points in Ohio, a significantly smaller margin than his 8.1-point win last time out.
Trump won Texas, one of the night’s biggest awards, by nine points in 2016, but the RCP average gives him a narrow 1.2-point lead before Tuesday’s vote.
