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By Thyagaraju Adinarayan and Divya Chowdhury
LONDON (Reuters) – Democratic candidate Joe Biden was once again the clear favorite to win the US presidential election in online betting markets on Wednesday, a setback for President Donald Trump, who had been favored overnight. morning.
The shift, according to data from three probability aggregators, came after Biden outpointed Trump in the battlefield state of Wisconsin, with an estimated 95% of votes counted there.
The UK-based Smarkets exchange was giving Biden an 82% chance, while the New Zealand-based prediction market PredictIt had Biden at 80%. Trump’s chances at Smarkets were 17%, a massive drop of nearly 80% overnight.
GRAPH: PredictIt odds – https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/qzjpqabgapx/Pasted%20image%201604494071156.png
“Taking the lead in Wisconsin could be the turning point with the Democrat now projected to win Nevada and Arizona, probably giving him the 270 electoral college votes he needs for victory,” said Betfair spokesman Sam Rosbottom.
Betfair punters were giving Biden a 78% chance of winning, the highest ever, late in the morning on the US East Coast.
Trump previously falsely claimed victory over Biden with millions of votes yet to be counted.
Biden, for his part, pinned his hopes on the so-called “blue wall” states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania that sent Trump to the White House in 2016, although it could take hours or days to finish counting.
(For the latest results and news on the US elections, click: https://www.reuters.com/world/us-election2020)
The 2020 election is shaping up to be the biggest betting event of all time, the betting companies say, with one player on Monday placing a record bet of one million pounds ($ 1.3 million) on a Biden win.
Biden had been the front-runner before Election Day, but his chances, according to punters, dropped to less than one in three overnight after Trump moved on in Florida.
Betfair Exchange said a record £ 434 million has been bet on the winner’s outcome so far, more than double the 2016 result. Take bets until the outcome is announced.
($ 1 = 0.7670 pounds)
(Information from Thyagaraju Adinarayan in London and Divya Chowdhury in Mumbai; additional information from Noel Randewich in San Francisco; edited by Angus MacSwan and Peter Graff)
