[ad_1]
BEIJING – As China settles into a cold autumn, epidemiologists have been warning of a possible resurgence of coronavirus infections that could occur with lower temperatures, forcing authorities to walk a fine line between containing the virus and keep open its economy just recovered.
There are early signs of complexity: Xinjiang, China’s largest region, has experienced two outbreaks in the past four months.
Since the summer, when cases began to drop and travel restrictions within the province were lifted, infectious disease experts had been warning that a drop in mercury could lead to an increase in cases.
As it gets colder, people stay indoors and close doors and windows, causing poor ventilation, said Dr. Koh Hau Tek, deputy chief medical officer at Jiahui Health in Shanghai.
In a closed space, when someone sneezes or coughs, the droplets remain and can lead to an increase in respiratory tract diseases.
“This is why when the weather gets colder, we see more cases of influenza. And the same could be said for Covid-19, which is also a respiratory tract disease,” said Dr. Koh.
China is bracing for a colder than usual winter, as the La Niña weather pattern occurring this year is likely to bring more frequent cold spells. With the pandemic continuing to sweep across the Americas and Europe experiencing a second wave of infections, there is growing concern about imported cases.
If the borders are reopened, there could be up to 7 million infections in the country and 200,000 deaths, the country’s top epidemiologist warned.
“Our country is under global pressure (on our strategy to keep the borders closed),” said Dr. Wu Zunyou of the China Center for Disease Control and Prevention in an interview with China Newsweek published on October 24, and He added that there have been international calls. so that the country continues to reopen.
After closing its borders to all foreigners at the end of March and limiting international flights to once a week per airline, China has allowed foreigners with valid residence permits to re-enter the country.
Beijing has also established “green lanes” with several countries, including Singapore, allowing certain people to travel without quarantine.
China doesn’t want its efforts to contain the outbreak to subside, but the country’s hard-won success is precarious.
Last weekend, a new group emerged in the western region of Xinjiang, an area that shares a border with seven countries.
Authorities quickly blocked Kashgar, canceled flights and conducted massive citywide tests of 4.7 million.
By Wednesday, 183 infections had been detected, most of them asymptomatic. They were all linked to a 17-year-old garment factory worker in Kashgar who came home to see her parents in a nearby town only about every fifteen days.
But despite sporadic outbreaks, most Chinese have little to worry about because the virus is largely under control in the general population, Dr. Wu said.
In much of the country, life is normal again, and the economy shows strong signs of recovery in the last quarter.
“As long as our country adheres to the containment strategy, the possibility of a major epidemic in the fall and winter is unlikely,” said Dr. Wu.
Mass concentrations have gradually returned, while domestic tourism has also seen a rebound.
Still, concerns persist about another winter killer: seasonal flu.
Worldwide, between 3 and 5 million people become seriously ill with the flu each year, which kills between 290,000 and 650,000, according to data from the World Health Organization.
However, there appear to be fewer cases than usual this year, the WHO said, in part because the pandemic has kept people worried about contracting Covid-19 away from healthcare providers, while redirecting medical resources, which which could lead to incomplete case reports.
Along with a coronavirus outbreak, the concern is that the healthcare system could be overwhelmed, Dr. Wu warned.
While doctors have advocated getting vaccinated against seasonal flu, general practitioners have said they are in short supply this year.
“It could be because there is a higher demand, so the stocks assigned to us are lower,” said a doctor at a private hospital who declined to be named to freely discuss the issue.
“But many of us believe another reason is because manufacturers have deployed resources to work on the new Covid-19 vaccine, which means that less flu vaccine is being produced,” he said.
[ad_2]
