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KUALA LUMPUR (BLOOMBERG) – Anwar Ibrahim has waited for decades to take power in Malaysia. If he finally achieves that goal, the 73-year-old opposition leader will have to figure out how to implement the policies he has long championed in an increasingly contentious parliament.
While Malaysia has always been beset by coalition politics, for six decades the former ruling bloc led by the United Malaysia National Organization oversaw a stable yet dominant government with policies designed to benefit the country’s dominant racial and religious group.
Its fall in 2018, led by Anwar and former leader Mahathir Mohamad, promised an inclusive and multiracial “New Malaysia” free from corruption.
However, the new coalition was quickly beset by political differences, all while grappling with the constant intrigue over when Mahathir, now 95, would hand over power to Anwar.
The drama came to a head with Mahathir’s resignation in February, sparking a round of haggling that prompted Muhyiddin Yassin to take over as prime minister backed by former Umno members.
This week, Anwar claimed to have a “convincing” majority to topple Muhyiddin, vowing to test the numbers at a meeting with the Malaysian monarch that has yet to be scheduled.
It is not yet clear if that will lead to another leadership change or a new election.
But one thing is certain: the political landscape is far from settled.
“It is the most fluid period in Malaysian politics; partisan loyalties have become very, very unstable,” said Johan Saravanamuttu, an associate researcher at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies who researches Malaysian politics.
“It’s just being in power. It’s not entirely clear to me if the whole idea of political reform is the direction it is taking. Idealism is out of the window.”
ROYAL FORGIVENESS
For Anwar, a bit of pragmatism could be forgiven.
He was seen as Mahathir’s successor in the 1990s before being fired in the wake of the Asian financial crisis, after which he spent six years in prison on convictions of abuse of power and sodomy.
Anwar returned to jail in 2015 on a subsequent sodomy charge, only to be released after the 2018 election thanks to a royal pardon.
As the leader of a key party in the previous Pakatan Harapan government, Anwar waited patiently for Mahathir to fulfill his promise to finally appoint him prime minister.
Mahathir kept pushing the date back and soon the government fell apart.
On Wednesday, Anwar said he was ready to replace Muhyiddin, who could only command a majority of a few lawmakers since he took office in March.
While the prime minister denounced the push for power, Umno leader Ahmad Zahid Hamidi said that some members of the government’s largest party now back Anwar.
At first glance, it would seem odd for Anwar to link up with Umno given that he previously called for an end to the affirmative action policies he advocated.
He also criticized the party for corruption related to former Prime Minister Najib Razak, who was found guilty of corruption last month and sentenced to 12 years in prison in the first trial for the 1MDB scandal to reach a conclusion.
FAIR REPRESENTATION
But Anwar has shown signs of softening his stance in recent years, making it clear in his statement on Wednesday (September 23) that the majority of lawmakers backing him were “Malays and Muslims.”
He promised “fair representation” for all races, not to mention ethnic Indians and Chinese who hold key positions in his own party and coalition.
“We are committed to upholding the principles of the constitution that recognizes the position of Islam, the sovereignty of the Malaysian rulers and upholding the position of the Malay language as the official language and the special position of Malays and Bumiputra, as well as providing security to defend the rights of all races, “he said in a statement.
Anwar has paid a “high price” over the years and now wants to make his mark, said Greg Lopez, a professor at the Murdoch University Center for Executive Education in Perth and co-editor of Regime Resilience in Malaysia and Singapore.
“He wants that opportunity to really show that he can do a good job,” Lopez said.
“Given the fact that he has survived all these decades being beaten by the left, the right and the center, he has the skills to maneuver Malaysia, or at least he will not do more damage than any of the other prime ministers.”
FINANCIAL CRISIS
If Anwar finally takes power, he will inherit an economy that suffered its worst performance in the second quarter since the financial crisis of the 1990s.
Muhyiddin has pushed through significant fiscal stimulus to revive the economy, which, along with others around the world, is experiencing unprecedented mobility restrictions and business closures.
Higher debt levels can make it difficult for Anwar to do something too ambitious.
Political turmoil adds another layer of uncertainty that could hamper investment and paralyze longer-term infrastructure projects, according to Chua Hak Bin, a senior economist at Maybank Kim Eng Research in Singapore.
Anwar’s statement on Wednesday emphasized the need for a stable government to help Malaysia overcome the pandemic. It focused largely on basic issues, rather than lofty calls for reform.
At this point for Anwar, any idealism means little if it is not in a position to change anything.
“If he became prime minister, it would mark the culmination of a journey of more than two decades,” said Awang Azman bin Awang Pawi, a professor at the University of Malaya who frequently comments on politics.
“It would also make him the first prime minister of a multi-racial and multi-religious party, the first in Malaysian history.”
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