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Whoever wins the US presidential election next week, the truth is that the relationship between Beijing and Washington has changed irrevocably and the hard-line stance toward China is likely to continue, analysts say.
Amid a trade war that never led to detente and spiraling diplomatic relations, there are also the enigmas of Hong Kong and Taiwan.
For the Chinese leadership, a victory for President Donald Trump or Joe Biden will each bring their own set of challenges, but would end the current attack on China that has dominated American politics, said Wang Huiyao, China’s Cabinet adviser and founder. of the Center for China and Globalization, a Beijing think tank.
“Trump no longer has an election to win, so this anti-China rhetoric, which tends to come up in election season, will stop,” he said. “That’s the moment when we could finally meet at the table and talk again.”
An important area would be the discussions on phases two and three of a comprehensive trade agreement between the United States and China.
Yet these same attacks helped solidify President Xi Jinping’s position within China, sparking a kind of nationalism sparked by a nation that felt ruined.
Trump’s Twitter form of diplomacy also spawned “wolf warriors” diplomats in China, a more assertive and public way of conducting foreign policy.
There is also a sense in Beijing that Biden will bring more to the table, offering cooperation in areas such as climate change and global public health.
“There is a global public health emergency and we want to cooperate in areas like vaccine development, but at the moment, it seems to be more of a competition,” Wang said.
“There will probably be more engagement and dialogue (under Biden) but, of course, Democrats will pressure China on issues like human rights.”
The Trump administration has been outspoken about supporting democracy in Hong Kong and has continued to engage with Taiwan, which China views as a renegade province that must be reunited by force if necessary.
“Beijing is likely to intensify its rumors after the elections, but in the event of a Biden victory, try to avoid moves that delay its commitment to the new administration,” wrote the political consultancy Eurasia Group in a research note.
No matter who wins, the “structure of the conflict” is likely to hold for the next decade or two, Wang said. “But decoupling is impossible because we can’t live without the other, so China is ready to find a new one. way to coexist “.
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