Airlines tackled their biggest environmental challenges, then were punished by COVID-19

BANGKOK: In the months leading up to the COVID-19 pandemic, the global aviation industry faced some of its greatest environmental and ideological challenges. Harmful carbon emissions continued to rise, and “flight shame,” fueled by teen activist Greta Thunberg, prompted travelers to question the climate impacts of the flights.

In a matter of months, the skies have been largely emptied, following an unprecedented crisis.

The result will be a year of dramatically reduced aviation emissions, which typically contribute around 2 percent of global carbon emissions, as well as a range of other pollutants.

Research from the Australian Institute (TAI) released this month showed that commercial aviation emissions could be cut in half in Australia this year. Forecasts are flexible as closure measures are extended. It is a modeling that could be replicated worldwide.

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But big cuts in harmful carbon emissions will be a silver lining in a disastrous period for the industry. And the grounding of most of the world’s airlines is only expected to provide temporary relief to the aviation industry as it attempts to lessen its impact on worsening global climate change.

On the horizon are abrupt environmental targets for airlines emerging from the depths of economic despair. Still, experts say there are opportunities to permanently shape the climate footprint of one of the world’s most polluting industries.

“Airlines have to face an immediate crisis and it is understandable that they are focusing on survival right now. However, we cannot ignore the crisis in the long term, “said Richie Merzia, director of TAI’s Climate and Energy Program.

“COVID-19 will eventually pass, while climate change will only continue to escalate. There is an opportunity to shape the rebirth of commercial aviation to also address climate change, thereby building a more resilient industry, ”he said.

Resilience will be an underrated need. In early April, there has been an 80 percent decrease in world flights. The global aviation industry faces its greatest threat with projected financial losses of $ 314 billion, as estimated by the International Air Transport Authority (IATA), the trade association representing the majority of the world’s airlines. .

“Airlines could spend up to $ 61 billion on cash reserves in the second quarter alone. That puts 25 million aviation-dependent jobs at risk. And without urgent help, many airlines will not survive to lead the economic recovery, “Alexandre de Juniac, IATA CEO and CEO said in a press release.

In Asia Pacific, 11.2 million jobs are at risk and passenger revenue decreased by $ 113 billion compared to 2019. It is speculated that most airlines will be bankrupt by June and many will require bailout funds from the government.

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ROAD TOWARDS CARBON NEUTRALITY

Amid economic devastation, the search for a healthier industry that does its part to prevent climate change will remain a key priority, according to IATA Director of Aviation Environment Michael Gill.

In an industry notoriously difficult to innovate environmentally, new technologies, sustainable fuel development, and improving airline fleets are considered essential to keep the industry on track. But obstacles and flexibility will be required.

Amended guidelines for the emissions benchmarks will be implemented under the IATA Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA), a global carbon pricing instrument that will begin in 2021.

Under the current agreement, the world’s airlines would use their 2019 and 2020 international flight emissions to create a benchmark figure.

The amount of future carbon offsets, such as forest offset programs, would be determined based on how much that baseline was exceeded: an attempt to achieve carbon neutral growth or a situation where emissions will not increase even as to increase demand.

But according to IATA Director of Aviation Environment Michael Gill, the extraordinary circumstances caused by the COVID-19 pandemic means that the 2020 count will no longer be included, meaning that 2019 emissions data will be based only in the future.

There remains an industry consensus on the importance of carbon neutrality, he told CNA, and this episode will have little impact on long-term goals.

“There is a commitment across the industry. Once this is over, we will not need to explain the importance of our environmental efforts again, “he said.

CORSIA is forecast to mitigate around 2.5 billion tons of CO2 and generate more than $ 40 billion in climate finance between 2021 and 2035, according to IATA. It complements the body’s other targets, including a 50% cut in aviation’s net carbon emissions by 2050, relative to 2005 levels and incremental fuel efficiency improvements each year.

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Gill says there are great opportunities to invest in the development and production of sustainable aviation fuel, which would stimulate growth and provide jobs.

There are industry projections for increased demand. There is room for expanded use, with market penetration of biofuels currently less than 1 percent.

Replacing traditional jet fuel with biofuel is an efficient way to reduce emissions. However, there is a controversy related to the development of biofuel, which generally comes from palm oil, one of the main known causes of the destruction of rain forests.

Biofuels are also still much more expensive than conventional fuels, a scenario that is likely to be exacerbated by the sharp drop in oil prices in world markets. That possibly means less incentive for airlines to make drastic environmental changes to the operation of their aircraft in this period of economic turmoil.

BOUNCING

The economy of flight means airlines will face tough decisions in the short and medium term, balancing their fiscal pressures with environmental obligations, according to aviation analyst Greg Waldron, managing editor for Asia at FlightGlobal.

He believes that many airlines will be forced to delay purchases of new aircraft, but will be eager to modernize as soon as it is economically feasible.

“With the massive drop in capacity, these airlines have stopped producing emissions. The problem with the aviation industry is that it is very difficult to decarbonize because fossil fuels have a high energy density, “he said.

“You can tackle it with a fuel-efficient plane and this benefits airlines as it is less damaging to the environment and it also saves them money on fuel costs. But when fuel prices are low, there is much less incentive to upgrade to a modern plane. ”

Singapore Airlines has only ten of its aircraft currently operating in a fleet of approximately 200, and the group recorded a 60.4 percent decrease in passenger transport in March. It has adapted the maintenance and upgrade of its modern fleet as a key way to minimize its environmental footprint.

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A spokesperson confirmed that the fleet has an average age of just six years. “We continue to evaluate the full impact of the COVID-19 situation on our current and future operations,” they said.

Despite the best efforts in the projections, the unknowns still hang over aviation, including how quickly services can be resumed and consumers’ fondness for traveling again.

Awareness of climate change and new forms of communication and remote work, forced on communities and workplaces during closing periods, can change travel patterns forever.

“Business travel can be affected for a long time because people are getting used to these virtual tools that are proving to be really effective. Therefore, a certain percentage of business trips can no longer be done because it can only be done online, “said Waldron.

“This will have a long-term effect on emissions. The industry will probably come back in a smaller form and that will affect emissions. ”

However, long-term projections before the coronavirus outbreak predicted a doubling in air travel over the next two decades.

Furthermore, the analysis conducted by the London School of Economics in 2019 showed that most of the world’s major airlines were not doing enough to help meet the objective of the Paris Agreement of limiting global warming to less than 2 degrees Celsius at long term.

“If the commercial aviation sector were its own country, it would be the sixth largest emitter in the world,” said Merzia.

“The real question is whether aviation will return to the same levels, and therefore the same emissions.”

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