When will the coronavirus vaccine be ready? All we know now

Doctors and scientists are struggling to develop a vaccine to stop the coronavirus, which is now responsible for more than 250,000 deaths worldwide. It is estimated that the COVID-19 pandemic It is expected to plague society until between 60% and 70% of the world population is immune.

More than 95 coronavirus vaccines are currently being tested, seven of which are already in clinical trials, meaning more scientists are working faster and faster to find a vaccine than ever before in the history of pandemics. But even if one of the vaccines currently in development turns out to be effective, the FDA approval process generally takes a year or more.

It is still too early to make predictions, but this is what we know so far about the race to develop a coronavirus vaccine that can help usher in the current pandemic.

One more note before starting. This article is intended as a resource to help you understand current research on the coronavirus vaccine. It is not intended to serve as medical advice. If you are looking for more information on coronavirus testing, here we show you how to find a test site close to you (and here it is another way for Apple Maps users). Here it is How to know if you qualify for an exam and Why are there no home coronavirus test kits? still. This story is updated frequently as new information comes to light.

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Vaccines 101: What is it, how does it work and for how long to make one?

A vaccine is a medical treatment that protects you against a disease like coronavirus. To learn more about how vaccines work, see this in-depth explainer on coronavirus treatment by CNET Science Editor Jackson Ryan. But the sweet and brief thing about this is that a vaccine tricks your body into thinking you already have the disease, so your body’s natural defense, the immune system, build antibodies against it. Then, if you were to become infected, your body would turn to antibodies to fight the virus before you feel sick.

Vaccines generally take 10-15 years to develop. This is in part because any new medical treatment must be thoroughly tested to ensure its safety before it can be distributed to millions or billions of people. The mumps vaccine took four years, widely considered the approval of the fastest vaccine in the history of infectious diseases.

The current picture of the coronavirus vaccine

Last week, the White House announced “Operation Warp Speed,” a sort of coronavirus vaccine task force that has identified 14 vaccine projects that it says will focus on rapid follow-up. The project’s stated goal is to have 300 million doses of vaccine available by January 2021. That’s a little faster than the estimated 12 to 18-month time frame proposed by the leading US infectious disease expert. USA, Dr. Anthony Fauci.

As of this writing, there are 97 vaccine projects underway in countries around the world, including the USA. USA, UK, Germany, Japan and China. Twelve are already in clinical trials or starting in the coming months. Of those 12, the University of Oxford appears to be leading the pack with a vaccine that researchers say could be ready by fall 2020.

How good are the odds of finding a vaccine?

Not good. Only about 6% of vaccine candidates make it to the market, and not just because they don’t work. There is a whole litany of problems that could cancel even a promising candidate. Take, for example, what happened when scientists tried to develop a vaccine for SARS: it failed and actually made people more susceptible to the disease. The same thing happened with a dengue fever vaccine. To make matters worse, coronaviruses are a great class of viruses and so far there are no vaccines for any of them.

However, this particular coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, has some unique traits that can help researchers working on a vaccine. For example, some viruses, like the flu, mutate quickly and frequently, so there is a new flu shot every year. This coronavirus doesn’t seem to do that. Although it is still too early to be completely sure what will happen when the vaccine is ready, it is believed that the virus has not yet mutated enough to interrupt the development of the vaccine, nor is it expected to do so.

What steps must a vaccine take to get approved?

Rules and regulations vary by country, but generally speaking, most industrialized nations have similar protocols for approving a vaccine. The following route is how vaccines are approved in the United States under the Food and Drug Administration:

• Before clinical trials can begin: Once a laboratory has investigated and developed a potential vaccine, which includes testing it in animal models and developing manufacturing and quality control processes, it can request it from the FDA to begin clinical trials.
• Phase 1 clinical trials: The vaccine is tested to determine its safety and effectiveness in a small number (dozens) of closely monitored subjects.
• Phase 2 clinical trials: Various doses of the vaccine are tested in hundreds of human subjects.
• Phase 3 clinical trials: Thousands of subjects are enrolled to measure the overall effectiveness of the vaccine.
• If a vaccine passes all three phases: The laboratory must then apply to the FDA for a license to produce and distribute the vaccine. That application is reviewed by scientists from the FDA and from other countries.
• If approved: The laboratory begins producing the vaccine while the FDA closely monitors production.
• Phase 4: Although the vaccine may be released to the market at this point, many vaccines continue what are called Phase 4 studies, during which the FDA continues to review the vaccine’s safety and efficacy.

What if we never find a coronavirus vaccine?

The longer we go without a vaccine, the more likely the focus will be on treatments, such as remdesivir of the experimental antiviral drug, which has been showing promising results. Many viruses that used to be fatal are no longer death sentences. HIV patients, for example, can now hope to enjoy the same life expectancy as non-HIV positive people, thanks to huge advances in treatment.

Without a coronavirus vaccine, the journey back to normal can be more difficult and lengthy, but not necessarily impossible. Coronavirus test, including antibody testand contact tracking efforts would probably have to be intensified. The blocking measures would be probably get up slowly, although depending on how people handle it cities and states can bring them back even demand facial masks and social distancing. Finally, the world population can reach the rate of 60% to 70% required for group immunity to protect those who are not immune.