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NEW YORK (BLOOMBERG) – The postponed Tokyo Olympics are unlikely to take place even in 2021, as the coronavirus pandemic may not be fully contained worldwide by then, a growing number of infectious disease experts warn. .
The highly contagious virus, which has claimed more than 200,000 lives worldwide, will be in various stages of spread and infection in different countries by next summer, making it difficult to host a large-scale international event, some say. experts in health policies.
Under such a scenario, guests and athletes from more than 200 countries and regions would require extensive testing and quarantine, a logistical process that may not be feasible.
“Japan may contain the virus at next year’s Games,” but other regions such as the United States, Africa, or Brazil may not create an uneven playing field for athletes, said Norio Sugaya, visiting professor at the University’s School of Medicine. from Keio in Tokyo and a member of the World Health Organization (WHO) panel advising on pandemic influenza.
“It will be difficult to celebrate the Olympic Games.”
Yoshito Niki, visiting professor of infectious diseases at Showa University, echoes Sugaya’s concern, warning that the world will take at least two years to contain the virus as infections return in the northern and southern hemispheres when they enter. in its winter seasons.
However, if the Games are brought forward, spectators would have to be left out and athletes would have to travel to Japan one month in advance for testing, he said. That raises the question of whether the event will be worth having, he said.
If extensive testing and quarantining guests is needed, that would add to the daunting logistical task of rescheduling the Games, which include reorganizing contractors, securing venues, and ensuring that the multitude of stakeholder interests are aligned. Billions of dollars in sponsorship money and broadcast rights are at stake.
Timely development of a vaccine would be a small hope, but even that is optimistic, as it can take three years to reach some of the poorest countries, Niki said. While more than 100 experimental vaccines are in some stage of development, according to the WHO, it will take more than a year to ensure their effectiveness and safety, according to Sugaya.
Japan’s Olympic Games Minister Seiko Hashimoto said on Friday (May 1) that the Games will not depend on the development of a vaccine, Kyodo News reported.
Japanese government organizers and officials have said that if the Games do not happen in 2021, then they will probably be canceled. The Summer Games have been rescheduled for July 23 to August 8 next year.
“If the virus is not contained by then, it will be difficult to carry out the Olympic Games in their full form,” Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said on Wednesday.
The Tokyo 2020 organizing committee will continue to work closely with the International Olympic Committee and the WHO, spokesman Masa Takaya said in an email response to request comment.
“Regarding the situation around the new coronavirus, we do not speculate.”
The Games, originally scheduled for this summer, were postponed as the pandemic spread across the United States and Europe. More than 3.2 million people have been infected.
While Japan is having some success in containing the virus after declaring a state of emergency in early April, which will last for a month, limited evidence makes it difficult to understand the true scale of infections. Japan has around 14,000 confirmed cases, far fewer than some other major economies.
It will also be a challenge to make competition fair, as the virus affects competing nations in different ways and at different times.
“If the pandemic triggers at different times in different areas, creating a devastating chill, it will produce a level playing field for athletes,” said Rick Burton, professor of sports management at Syracuse University, in a statement sent by mail. electronic.
“That could mean that some Olympic athletes would be cleared to resume regular training activities at different times. That advantage would not fit in with the Olympic ideal.”
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