Commentary: Why the Suez Canal Accident is the Worst Case for World Trade

PLYMOUTH, England: An estimated 90 percent of world trade is transported by sea. As consumers, we rarely give much thought to how the things we buy make their way across the planet and into our homes.

That is, until an incident like the recent grounding of a huge container ship, the Ever Given, in the Suez Canal, exposes the weaknesses of this global system.

Strong winds have been blamed for the container ship that blocked the strait, which serves as a commercial artery connecting the Mediterranean and the Red Sea.

READ: Suez Canal blocked by huge freighter

But with shipping so dependent on such narrow channels, the potential for these incidents is always present.

As maritime safety investigators, we often simulate incidents such as Ever Given grounding to understand the likely short-term and long-term consequences.

In fact, the recent event is almost identical to something we’ve been discussing for the last month, as it represents a near-worst-case scenario for the Suez Canal and knock-on effects on world trade.

The Suez Canal is the gateway for the movement of goods between Europe and Asia, and was responsible for the transit of more than 19,000 ships in 2019, equivalent to almost 1.25 billion tons of cargo. This is believed to account for about 13 percent of world trade, so any lockdown is likely to have a significant impact.

LARGE SHIPS IN A NARROW STRAIT

The Suez Canal Authority began expanding the strait in 2014 to increase its daily capacity from 49 vessels today to 97 by 2023. This gives an indication of how many vessels are likely to be affected by the current situation.

There are reports that the incident has already stopped the passage of 10 crude tankers carrying 13 million barrels of oil, and that any diverted ship will have 15 days added to their journey.

LEE: Tugboats work to free a giant container ship stranded in the Suez Canal

The severity of the incident is due to the dimensions of the vessels that use the canal. Ever Given is 400 meters long, 59 meters at its widest point and 16 meters deep below the waterline. This makes it one of the largest container ships in the world, capable of carrying more than 18,000 containers.

Depending on the severity of the stranding, the rescue and refloating of this type of boat is a complex operation, requiring specialized equipment and potentially time consuming.

While the exact number of container ships of this size transiting the canal is unknown, container ships account for nearly a third of all canal traffic. Its depth and circumference make navigation within the canal difficult.

When operating within such narrow margins, ships of this size must maintain a certain speed to maintain effective governance.

With the capacity to carry more than 150,000 tons of cargo, these ships cannot stop suddenly. If something goes wrong, crews have very little time to react before the ship runs aground.

This makes a blockade of this type almost inevitable, especially considering that the length of these boats far exceeds the width of the channel. But what makes this incident particularly disturbing is the location of the ground connection.

READ: Egypt’s Suez Canal: A History of the Key Route

Since the canal was expanded, the Mediterranean end of the Canal now has two canals for ships to take, allowing for smooth transit even if one canal is blocked.

But, at its current location at the end of the Suez Canal, the Ever Given is blocking the only canal that ships can pass through. As ships travel through the 193 km of canal in convoys with strictly timed spaces, the ships leading these groups can block the canal in this way, creating a build-up of ships or even collisions.

It is not clear if the products being delayed are urgent (for example, medicine or food), but understanding what effect these incidents have on trade can help us anticipate effective solutions.

IT COULD HAVE BEEN WORSE?

We are also interested in knowing what other factors can influence an event like this. One element is the time of year. Traditionally, in the run-up to Christmas, October and November are busy times for maritime trade.

A disruption to the global supply chain during this period would have a much greater impact and could coincide with difficult weather conditions that would make things worse, such as fog reducing visibility.

READ: Comment: How Singapore will remain a major trade center in a post-pandemic world

Another element is the unevenness of the banks of the canal. Had the incident occurred only a few kilometers towards the Suez seaport where the strait ends, the ship would have run aground on banks made of rock, not sand.

An impact here could have caused severe damage to the hull, making salvage operations difficult.

While not identical to our team’s tabletop scenario, the latest incident highlights that as ships get bigger and more complicated, their reliance on narrow shipping lanes built in an earlier era seems increasingly risky.

Today’s lockdown will have limited long-term implications, but incidents like this could be maliciously triggered, causing specific or widespread impacts on global and local commerce.

We need to be more aware of these weaknesses as our world becomes more connected.

Rory Hopcraft is an industrial researcher at the University of Plymouth, Kevin Jones is Executive Dean of the College of Science and Engineering at the University of Plymouth, and Kimberly Tam is a professor of cybersecurity at the University of Plymouth. This comment first appeared on The Conversation.