[ad_1]
BOSTON, Massachusetts: Although mass vaccination campaigns are accelerating in the West, the end of the COVID-19 pandemic is not yet in sight.
That is why the United States and other rich countries are only to blame themselves.
It has become clear, at least since early summer 2020, that even with effective vaccines in hand, COVID-19 will not stop until populations around the world have achieved herd immunity, when the proportion of people still are susceptible to infection is so small that the disease can no longer spread.
It is not enough that no individual country reaches this point. As long as the virus continues to circulate in other parts of the world, random mutations will continue to occur. Some will be disadvantageous to the virus, but others will make it even more contagious or deadly.
Hear behind-the-scenes considerations and discussions on what could be Singapore’s largest vaccination program on CNA’s Heart of the Matter podcast:
NEW VARIANTS
Again, we already know. Since December alone, three highly infectious strains of the SARS-CoV-2 virus have been identified.
With a significantly higher transmission rate and potentially a higher mortality rate, the British variant, B.1.1.7, is already spreading rapidly within the US and Europe. The South African variant, B.1.351, can be even more contagious.
READ: Comment: COVID-19 Vaccine Rollout May Be Tricky, But It Will Reshape Healthcare Systems Forever
And the Brazilian strain, P.1, may be the most dangerous of all.
The emergence of new variants means that even when the United Kingdom (UK) achieves herd immunity, as seems likely with the current vaccination rate, the British are still not out of the woods.
Unless the UK completely isolates itself from the rest of the world, which is essentially impossible, those traveling outside the country will bring back new variants, and some of them could circumvent the protections provided by current vaccines.
P.1 is of particular concern. It emerged in Manaus, which last October recorded an infection rate of nearly 80 percent, above the threshold of 60 to 70 percent that scientists estimate is sufficient for herd immunity against COVID-19.
THE IMMUNITY OF THE HERD IS NOT ENOUGH
But because more infections allow more mutations, being above the threshold for herd immunity may not be enough. In fact, the emergence of P.1, which hit the city with another wave of infections, implies that immunity against the initial virus did not provide immunity against the new variant.
European neighbors are closing doors to Britain amid alarm over the new strain of coronavirus. (Photo: Reuters)
It is true that scientists should be able to reprogram vaccines to be effective against new variants once they have been identified; that’s one of the advantages of the mRNA technology that underpins the Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines.
But this flexibility is a small consolation after a variant enters a country and forces economic and social life to return to a state of lockdown. Once this happens, the entire population must queue again for booster injections.
This whack-a-mole scenario can be avoided if the rest of the world gets vaccinated quickly, stopping the spread of the virus and thus its chances of acquiring new mutations.
But vaccination around the world seems impossible at the moment, because not enough doses are being distributed in the developing world.
VACCINES FOR EVERYONE
Had we managed to provide the two billion doses requested by the World Health Organization’s COVAX program, it would still have been extremely difficult to achieve widespread vaccination in remote parts of Africa, Asia and the Middle East, due to a lack of basic infrastructure. of health. and transportation networks.
With Johnson & Johnson’s new single-shot vaccine, which doesn’t need the cold supply chain logistics required by mRNA vaccines, there should be a fighting chance. Yet tragically, vaccine nationalism still stands in the way.
In this illustration, taken on October 31, 2020, vials with a label that reads “COVID-19 / Coronavirus Vaccine / Injection Only” and a medical syringe are seen in front of the Johnson & Johnson logo shown (Photo: REUTERS / Dado Ruvic).
With the launch of Chinese and Russian vaccines, we may be able to produce enough vaccines to supply the entire world. However, what we lack is international cooperation.
Coordinating the global delivery of vaccines is critical to ending the pandemic. For example, it makes sense for the most effective vaccines to be given in areas where the virus is spreading the fastest.
An additional complication is that there is currently limited reliable data on Chinese vaccines.
READ: Comment: The world needs many more doses of COVID-19 vaccine than this
We may need to take into account the possibility that they are less effective than others and that the virus is more likely to continue to spread and mutate in populations that have received these vaccines.
Despite the precarious situation, Western governments and corporate lobby groups are busy with bad ideas instead of trying to provide more vaccines to the developing world.
VACCINE PASSPORTS
The worst of these, which is now being considered in both the US and the European Union, is a proposed “vaccine passport” that would allow those who have been vaccinated to travel internationally.
Now, there is a good case for giving vaccinated people credentials to access crowded indoor spaces, which encourages vaccine adoption.
But with its singular focus on opening up global travel, a vaccine passport is a terrible idea for a world where the virus is still spreading and mutating as a result of our inability to vaccinate everyone.
Vaccine passports do not provide protection against new variants such as P.1. All it would take is a wealthy businessman or tourist with a vaccine passport and a new variant to trigger an epidemic in a country that thought it had achieved herd immunity.
France and Germany believe that the idea of a “vaccine passport” is premature, while vaccines are available only to a small fraction of the population. (Photo: AFP / Christophe Archambault)
These problems will multiply until we begin to treat the pandemic for the global crisis that it is. In a world without international cooperation, a country that manages to vaccinate the majority of its population has only one defense: to abandon the most basic principles of globalization.
At a minimum, all international travelers should be required to quarantine for two weeks at carefully monitored sites, regardless of whether they are nationals or foreigners, and regardless of whether they have been vaccinated against known variants.
READ: Comment: Why is Asia slow to get vaccinated?
Even this basic measure would represent a big step back from globalization.
But if Western countries continue to focus solely on vaccinating their own populations while ignoring the need for global coordination, they should prepare for a future without unimpeded international travel.
Daron Acemoglu, an economics professor at MIT, is a co-author (with James A. Robinson) of Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty, and the Narrow Corridor: States, Societies, and the Fate of Freedom.
