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KUALA LUMPUR: The struggle for leadership in the Malaysian government saw a key development on Thursday with the United Malaysia National Organization (UMNO) severing ties with Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) ahead of the upcoming general election.
UMNO, in a February 26 decision, indicated that it would not cooperate with Bersatu in the upcoming general elections. The two are currently in the ruling government of Perikatan Nasional (PN).
In response, Bersatu issued a statement saying that in the future it will focus on improving cooperation with its partners in the PN coalition, including Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS) and other regional and smaller parties.
Political analysts CNA spoke with said the writing had been on the wall for the past few months for UMNO and Bersatu to part ways.
Muhyiddin Yassin’s PN government was formed after the collapse of the Pakatan Harapan (PH) administration in February last year. As party chairman, he had removed Bersatu from PH and joined forces with UMNO and PAS in a power struggle in Putrajaya.
However, ties between UMNO and Bersatu have frayed in recent months, and 189 of the 191 UMNO divisions across the country refused to work with Bersatu in January.
Muhyiddin has reiterated that he will dissolve parliament once the COVID-19 pandemic is over, hence the rumors of an imminent general election in Malaysia.
Analysts said this split between UMNO and Bersatu could trigger more shifting alliances, which could lead to unlikely partnerships before the next general election.
READ: Motion presented for UMNO to cut ties with Bersatu in the next general elections, says the party’s supreme council
ALLIANCE CONDEMNED FROM THE BEGINNING
Analysts explained that there were clear signs indicating cracks early on in the relationship between UMNO and Bersatu.
Professor James Chin, Director of the Asia Institute at the University of Tasmania, recalled how in March 2020, following the collapse of the PH government, UMNO had formed the PN government together with Bersatu and PAS, thinking that it would be allowed to play. an influential role in the Muhyiddin administration.
“UMNO was the party with the largest number of MPs in the coalition, more than Bersatu,” he said.
“In the end they were outclassed, with many key ministerial posts awarded to MPs from Bersatu. UMNO was found to be deficient, ”he added.
He cited how Muhyiddin appointed four high-ranking ministers to his cabinet, which included two from Bersatu and only one from UMNO.
Sunway University political analyst Dr. Wong Chin Huat highlighted that the partnership between Bersatu and UMNO has always been a “zero sum game” because both are parties based in Malaysia and aim to support them. voters.
Kampung Ayer Masin in Kukup is home to hundreds of fishermen in Kukup. Party flags lined the road in this photo taken during Tanjung Piai’s by-elections in November 2019. (Photo: Fadza Ishak)
“The UMNO and its most threatening splinter, Bersatu, cannot agree on the allocation of seats and the candidate for prime minister (for the next GE) because the two parties seek the same electoral base, the Malays nationalists, ”said Dr. Wong.
He also echoed the sentiments of Professor Chin, explaining how UMNO sees itself as the top party with the most seats and strongest bases in the rural heart of Malaysia.
“Bersatu has made no secret of its ambition to dissolve and annex UMNO. On the other hand, UMNO, with more seats and stronger machinery on the ground, sees no reason to hand over the post of prime minister to Bersatu, ”he added.
Dr Oh Ei Sun, Senior Researcher at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs, added that division was always on the cards, as both UMNO and Bersatu were vying for the driver’s seat in the ruling coalition.
“It takes two to tango, even in a political breakdown,” said Dr. Oh.
“Mutual mistrust and annoyance simmered over time to the recent breaking point,” he added.
READ: Comment: UMNO’s fear that Bersatu could destroy it has some basis
SPLIT WOULD DAMAGE UNITED
Dr. Oh said that Bersatu could have a difficult time winning seats in the next election, as he has lost the support of some voters who supported him when he was part of the PH coalition in the last general election of 2018.
Furthermore, he added that Bersatu, which was founded in 2016, has yet to match UMNO in capturing the support of conservative Malaysian voters.
“However, Bersatu could still rely on its ally PAS, which has strong roots in Kelantan and Terengganu,but the price of PAS assistance could mean a continued unfolding of the theocratic agenda of the Islamist party in a ruling Bersatu-PAS coalition, “he said.
As for other parties of the PN coalition, which consists of the former Barisan Nasional Parti Gerakan Rakyat Malaysia (Gerakan) component, Parti Solidariti Tanah Airku Rakyat Sabah (STAR) and the Sabah Progressive Party (SAPP), the latter two whose main base of support is in the northern state of Borneo, Dr. Oh said that each of them could retain their niche seats.
Gerakan does not currently have a parliamentary seat.
READ: Sabah’s surprise results and how Warisan lost a lot in state elections, one comment
“But since every seat counts in forming a governing coalition, they would continue to play an indispensable role, albeit a minor one,” he explained.
Bersatu would be “wiped out” if UMNO and PAS run as partners at the polls, Dr. Wong said.
He said the PAS could back UMNO in polls as the two parties have an ongoing Muafakat Nasional pact, which aims to unite Malay-Muslim political power.
UM DOES NOT HOLD THE CARDS
Dr. Oh stressed that the division between Bersatu and UMNO could favor the advancement of UMNO, as it has a large number of seats and could dictate the terms with the parties with which it chooses to form a coalition.
“If UMNO wins substantially more seats than it does now, as seems likely, it could elect its partners, even work with Bersatu or PH again, to build a new governing coalition in which it would assume strong and leading leadership,” He said. additional.
The President of the United Malaysia National Organization (UMNO), Ahmad Zahid Hamidi (left), and the President of the Pan-Malay Islamic Party (PAS), Hadi Awang, shake hands during the Ummah Unity Meeting in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia on September 14, 2019. REUTERS / Lim Huey Teng
Dr. Wong predicted that seats in Peninsular Malaysia will be dominated by three groups: PH, UMNO and PAS in the polls.
“If Pakatan Harapan wins most, but less than 90 seats in Peninsular Malaysia, it is most likely a PH-UMNO government with its East Malaysian allies. If UMNO wins the majority, then UMNO may have the option of UMNO-PH or UMNO-PAS, also with their respective East Malaysian allies, ”he added.
However, Professor Chin maintained that there are factions within UMNO that are still willing to work alongside PN.
He added that while the largest bloc, led by former Prime Minister Najib Razak and Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, is eager for UMNO to leave the PN, other UMNO leaders who support Muhyiddin could lead the party in another direction.
Former Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak arrives at the Kuala Lumpur High Court in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia on July 28, 2020 (Photo: REUTERS / Lim Huey Teng)
An example might be Annuar Musa, who was fired as general secretary of the Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition in January.
Annuar was seen as an advocate for UMNO’s continued alliance with Bersatu and PAS and was reportedly fired because he has not been following UMNO party lines and was seen to be on the side of the NP’s ruling coalition.
Professor Chin said that the UMNO’s decision to leave the PN could lead to some leaders leaving the party, weakening the UMNO.
UMNO-PH ASSOCIATION FOR GE15?
Although there is a possibility that UMNO will now partner with PH in the next election and form a great alliance with a good chance of winning, Professor Chin argued that this would be unlikely due to inherent differences.
He noted that there are differences in political stance and racial ideology between UMNO and people like Parti Keadilan Rakyat and Anwar Ibrahim’s Democratic Action Party (DAP) and therefore an alliance coalition between UMNO and PH would be “impossible. “.
However, he claimed that UMNO and PH could work together on one issue: demand the dissolution of parliament and pressure Muhyiddin to call general elections.
READ: Perikatan Nasional agrees that the UMNO representative as Perak’s new chief minister, replacing the ousted Bersatu leader
But working together in a coalition? I do not believe it. The divide between UMNO and PKR is too deep and of course UMNO absolutely hates DAP. So that’s not possible, ”said Professor Chin.
On the other hand, he added that a key issue that could unite the three Malaysia-based parties, Bersatu, UMNO and PAS, was to ensure that PH and some of its non-Malaysian parties like DAP do not form the government.
Pakatan Harapan Presidential Council Meeting on July 6, 2020 (Photo: Facebook / Anwar Ibrahim)
“If the three Malaysian parties do not stick together and divide the Malaysian vote … the biggest fear for them will be that the non-Malaysian parties will come back and win the elections,” he added.
For Dr. Oh, since the chances of the current NP government being overthrown in a reverse “Sheraton Movement” seemed less and less likely, all parties would have to focus on their prospects in the next election, even for the coalition. opponent PH.
READ: Anwar Ibrahim says he has a ‘strong majority’ to form a new government in Malaysia
“It doesn’t make sense to seem too friendly to UMNO right now. PH should focus on consolidating its base of support, which has been subtly disintegrating as a sense of worthlessness and misfortune sets in, in time to face the next general election, ”said Dr. Oh.
If the PH coalition could win the same number of seats it currently has, or more, then it could elect its partners. Then all kinds of combinations and their permutations would open up, he added.
“The essence is to win as many seats as possible. Then talk about cooperation, ”Dr. Oh said.
