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TOKYO: Japan’s COVID-19 cases hit a new daily record on Wednesday (January 6), as the government faced mounting pressure from health experts to impose a strict state of emergency for the Tokyo metropolitan area.
The surge in infections has pushed Tokyo and surrounding areas to the highest level of a four-stage alert, prompting regional governors to call for an emergency declaration that Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga is expected to announce on Thursday.
The Health Ministry held a meeting of infectious disease experts on Wednesday, the second in two days. They have called for stricter and prolonged countermeasures, while Suga has sought a more limited response to avoid damaging the economy.
“Even if we crack down immediately, it will be difficult to bring the Tokyo metropolitan area to stage 3 by the end of January,” Takaji Wakita, head of the National Institute of Infectious Diseases, told reporters after the meeting.
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New infections nationwide reached at least 6,001, a new daily record according to a tally by national broadcaster NHK. Tokyo reported 1,591 cases, also a historical record.
Without new measures, daily infections in Tokyo could nearly triple to 3,500 a day in February and reach 7,000 in March, according to simulations by Kyoto University scientist Hiroshi Nishiura. An emergency declaration should last at least two months to bring infections to manageable levels, he said.
A senior lawmaker from the ruling party said Tuesday it should be imposed for a month and extended if necessary. The government is concerned about the economic impact as it prepares to host the Olympics this summer.
The government’s chief spokesman, Katsunobu Kato, said a decision would likely be made on Thursday on whether the second state of emergency will be imposed and for how long from the start of the pandemic.
Economists warned of a big hit to gross domestic product (GDP) if the restrictions are prolonged or extended, but said that could be inevitable.
“If you take into account the current number of infected and weather-related factors, it can be difficult to end this in a month,” said BNP Paribas Securities senior economist Hiroshi Shiraishi. “The likelihood that it will work longer is not low.”
Nationwide, COVID-19 infections hit what was a daily record of 4,915 on Tuesday, while deaths also hit an all-time high of 76.
Shiraishi estimated that a month-long state of emergency in the Tokyo area would reduce consumer spending by 1.1 percent and first-quarter GDP by about 0.5 percentage points. That would double to 1 point if extended to two months, and 2 points if expanded nationally, he predicted.
Tokyo and the three surrounding prefectures have asked residents to refrain from non-essential and non-urgent departures after 8 p.m. from Friday until at least the end of the month, saying that restaurants and bars should close by that time.
But the measures are likely to be much less radical than during last year’s six-week state of emergency, during which schools and non-essential businesses were closed.
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