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JAKARTA: As Indonesia prepares to begin mass inoculations against COVID-19, its plan to prioritize working-age adults over the elderly, aiming to achieve herd immunity quickly and jumpstart the economy, will be closely watched by others. countries.
Several countries like the United States and Great Britain that have already started vaccinating are prioritizing older people who are most vulnerable to respiratory disease.
The following are expert opinions on the merits and risks of Indonesia’s approach, whereby working-age adults will be vaccinated after front-line health workers and public officials.
WHY THE 18 TO 59 YEARS OLD FIRST?
Indonesia, which plans to begin mass inoculations with a vaccine developed by China’s Sinovac Biotech, says it does not yet have enough data on the vaccine’s efficacy in older people, as ongoing clinical trials in the country involve 18-year-olds. to 59 years.
“We are not opposed to the trend,” said Siti Nadia Tarmizi, a senior health ministry official, adding that authorities will await recommendations from the country’s drug regulators to decide on vaccination plans for the elderly.
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While Britain and the United States began immunizations with an injection developed by Pfizer and its partner BioNTech that has been shown to work well in people of all ages, Indonesia has initial access only to the Sinovac vaccine.
The Southeast Asian country has an agreement to receive 125.5 million doses of Sinovac’s CoronaVac injection, and there is already a first batch of 3 million doses in the country.
Shipments of the Pfizer vaccine to the country are expected to begin in the third quarter, while a vaccine developed by AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford will begin shipping in the second quarter.
Officers unload a box of Sinovac’s vaccine for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) when it arrives at the cold room of the Indonesian local health department in Palembang, South Sumatra province, Indonesia, on January 4, 2021 in this photo taken by Antara Photo. Antara Photo / Nova Wahyudi / via REUTERS
“I don’t think anyone can get too dogmatic about what the right approach is,” said Peter Collignon, professor of infectious diseases at the Australian National University, adding that Indonesia’s strategy could slow the spread of the disease, although it is possible. that does not affect mortality. rates.
“If Indonesia does it differently than the United States and Europe it is valuable, because it will tell us (yes) it will see a more dramatic effect in Indonesia than in Europe or the United States because of the strategy they are doing, but I don’t think anyone knows. the answer “.
READ: Indonesia now has 1.2 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine in its possession. Whats Next?
Professor Dale Fisher from the Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine at the National University of Singapore said he understood the rationale for Indonesia’s approach.
“Young working adults are generally more active, more social, and travel more, so this strategy should decrease community transmission faster than vaccinating older people,” he said.
“Of course older people are at higher risk of serious illness and death, so vaccinating them has an alternative justification. I see merit in both strategies.”
WILL IT HELP ACHIEVE HERD IMMUNITY QUICKLY?
By vaccinating the most socially mobile and economically active groups first, Indonesian government officials hope that the government can quickly achieve herd immunity.
Budi Gunadi Sadikin, Indonesia’s health minister, said the country needs to vaccinate 181.5 million people, or about 67 percent of its population, to achieve herd immunity, and requires nearly 427 million doses of vaccines, assuming a double dose regimen and 15 percent waste rate.
A healthcare worker holds a swab sample for the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) antigen test in Yogyakarta, Indonesia, on January 3, 2021. Hendra Nurdiyansyah / Antara Photo via REUTERS
Some experts are skeptical about achieving herd immunity, as more research is needed to determine whether vaccinated people can transmit the virus or not.
“There could be a risk that people are still capable of transmitting the disease to others,” said Hasbullah Thabrany, head of the Indonesian Health Economic Association.
WILL IT HELP ECONOMIC RECOVERY?
Economists have argued that a successful vaccination program covering around 100 million people will help jump-start the economy, as economic activities such as spending and production are more likely to resume.
Faisal Rachman, an economist at Bank Mandiri, said the 18-59 age group has higher consumption needs than other groups.
“They could drive economic recovery faster because household consumption contributes more than 50 percent to Indonesia’s economy,” he said, warning that the increase in COVID-19 cases in the country could also lower people’s confidence. .
The pandemic pushed Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s largest economy, into its first recession in more than two decades last year, with the government estimating a contraction of up to 2.2 percent.
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