[ad_1]
LONDON: A potentially more infectious new variant of the coronavirus is believed to be behind the rising number of COVID-19 cases in southern parts of the UK.
Fearing this version of the virus will spiral out of control, the government has introduced a stricter level of restrictions across much of England: Level 4.
In Level 4 areas, which include London and much of the South East, people are required to stay home unless they have a permissible reason not to, such as going to work or exercising.
Travel, when permitted, should be kept to a minimum. And indoor mixing has been banned, and home mixing is no longer allowed at Christmas.
READ: Britain says new strain of COVID-19 ‘is out of control’
READ: What we know about the new strain of coronavirus found in Great Britain
With millions of people’s Christmases interrupted, many will wonder why the rules need to change so quickly.
This is what the evidence tells us about why the decision to introduce Level 4 was made, as well as what the effects of these restrictions might be and how long it can take to live under them.
AN INCREASE IN INFECTIVITY SEEMS LIKELY
The new strain of the coronavirus contains a host of mutations and has spread rapidly in London and south-east England. It has also been found in all other parts of the UK, as well as in a small number of cases in Denmark, the Netherlands and Australia.
Whenever a virus mutates, there are three key questions: Does it cause a more serious disease? Is it different enough to evade immunity or existing vaccines? And is it more contagious?
A person gestures to a sign with a public health information message, amid the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), as new restrictions take effect, in London, Britain, on Dec. 20 2020. REUTERS / Toby Melville
We do not yet have definitive answers to any of these questions, but there is evidence to conclude with some confidence that this variant is more transmissible.
Some of its mutations involve the spike protein and receptor-binding areas, key parts of the virus that help it enter cells, and consequently there are indications that the virus’s ability to infect human cells has increased.
This appears to lead both to people having more viruses in their system (known as viral load) and to an increase in R (the reproduction number, or the number of people that an infected person will infect) out of between 0.4 and 0.9. which is later suspected of increasing the number of cases.
READ: UK variant of COVID-19 may be better able to infect children: scientists
NEED FOR TIGHTENING MEASURES
This is what we know so far, but it will take weeks to confirm all the characteristics of this variant, including the precise mechanisms behind the alleged increase in transmission, as well as the age distribution and severity of cases it causes.
Rightly, the UK government has moved swiftly to increase restrictions on social mix and movement in areas where tension prevails. Other countries in Europe and beyond, also out of precaution, have temporarily limited international travel from the UK.
READ: Comment: Can Singapore be a major COVID-19 vaccine transshipment hub and save its aviation industry?
The measures available to control the spread of this variant are the same as for COVID-19 in general: reduce social contact, wear face masks, and wash your hands regularly.
But the fact that this variant has been extended during a period of existing social restrictions in the UK is concerning and underscores why there was a need to strengthen control measures and encourage greater compliance.
It was already clear, before the announcement of this strain, that only the highest level of restrictions in England controlled the transmission. Scientists had already been advising the government to abandon its plan to allow greater social freedoms during Christmas, as had been done in other European countries.
READ: Comment: Christmas shouldn’t be an excuse to ease COVID-19 restrictions
People in Christmas hats walk down Kings Road as the British government imposes a tighter set of tiered restrictions amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, in Chelsea, London, Britain, on December 20, 2020 REUTERS / Kevin Coombs
In fact, even if this variant turns out to be no more transmissible, the rapidly increasing number of COVID-19 cases we’ve seen recently, with a doubling time of six to seven days, means that stricter restrictions were urgently needed from anyway.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE NEW METERS FOR WEEKS
It is not yet known if the Level 4 measures will be effective in reducing the number of virus reproduction below 1 and thus prevent the number of cases from increasing or if even stricter measures will be needed, such as a total lockdown as happened in March .
The restrictions may need to be extended to more parts of the country as we know that the variant is already seeded throughout the UK.
Broad compliance and the support of the general public will be of key importance to ensure maximum effectiveness of these measures. Commenters have emphasized the need for each individual to assume they are contagious and modify their behavior accordingly.
READ: Comment: Is it so difficult to behave with social responsibility during a pandemic?
LEE: Our silent joy for Phase 3 is the true new normal
These measures will likely need to be implemented in the UK for several weeks to reduce the absolute number of new cases and reduce pressure on the NHS.
This will also give the case detection and contract tracking system a chance to be effective, and will allow time for the COVID-19 vaccination program to reach a substantial proportion of the population at risk.
During the first wave of the pandemic, and more recently in places like Melbourne, Australia, shutdowns of around three months were needed to truly control the epidemic.
Other countries will be watching the situation in the UK very closely, to see if the same applies in this situation.
A man receives the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine on a walk through a vaccination center amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Hyde, Britain, on December 17, 2020. REUTERS / Phil Noble
All in all, it looks like it’s going to be an even harsher winter in the UK than anticipated, but with vaccination expanding, by the time the weather starts to warm up, the worst may be over.
It is up to everyone, in all areas of life, to take individual responsibility for controlling this epidemic, which affects us all.
CHECK THIS: Our comprehensive coverage of the coronavirus outbreak and its developments
Download our app or subscribe to our Telegram channel for the latest updates on the coronavirus outbreak: https://cna.asia/telegram
Jimmy Whitworth is Professor of International Public Health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. This comment first appeared on The Conversation.
