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BERLIN – When Covid-19 first arrived in Europe in February this year, Dr Angela Merkel, a physicist by training, quickly understood the dangers that an exponentially growing pandemic could bring. The German chancellor quickly managed to get the heads of the 16 German states to join on board, and by March a severe blockade had already been established.
The spread of the virus appeared to be under control and Germany was hailed for its successful and effective crisis management. Now, just nine months later, this optimism is gone.
It was Mr. Horst Seehofer, Minister of the Interior in Dr. Merkel’s Cabinet, who admitted the obvious. The advantage that Germany had gained from the pandemic in the spring has been squandered, he said in an interview this month. Seehofer, one of the government’s strong men, made it clear that citizens were not to blame for this failure. “Above all this is due to insufficient measures,” he is quoted.
In fact, in November, Germany moved into the light of the blockade, hoping that this could avoid stricter measures and prevent further damage to the economy. This, however, Der Spiegel magazine now calls nothing less than “possibly the biggest political mistake of the year”.
Promises were made but not kept, hopes were first raised but then frustrated.
When it became clear that the reduced version of the blockade was not working, a rigid one was imposed that took effect a week ago. The political back and forth was a grain of sand for those who always believed that the government cannot be trusted.
In fact, German politics these days are primarily driven by numbers, and they are sobering: Daily new infections are up well over 30,000, which is a one-third increase compared to the previous month. Although the death rate, totaling more than 26,000, is still quite low in Europe, this indicator is also clearly on the rise.
The occupancy rate for intensive care beds in hospitals rose sharply to more than 5,000, almost doubling since the beginning of November. The nursing staff is working at full capacity. Caregivers in hospitals and nursing homes often have to continue their service even if they themselves are infected.
During the first lockdown in spring, the wave of infections could reverse, but this is not happening now.
Infection rates continue to rise, raising concerns that, at some point, hospitals will not be able to care for all new admitted patients. A few days ago, a doctor at a hospital in the state of Saxony already said that the so-called triage system had to be applied.
Triage is used in crisis situations when decisions must be made about which patient will receive treatment. The core values underlying triage decisions include prioritization of medical urgency, ability to benefit, fairness, severity of the patient’s health condition, and likely outcome.
The doctor’s statement sparked a public outcry, but it also brought to light just how dire the situation has become.
The rude awakening in the fall months of September through November makes summer restrictions seem like a piece of cake. Although Dr. Merkel repeatedly told the public that the winter months starting in December would be much worse, some German heads of states were more concerned about their local businesses and ignored the warnings.
Since many of the restrictions in Germany must be implemented regionally, options for action are limited for a chancellor. The federal system is based on persuasion rather than enacting policy.
Addressing the press after frequent meetings with regional leaders, Dr. Merkel seemed tired, drained and frustrated. He was often unable to prevail over local prime ministers, even those from his own party, the conservative CDU. Two political drawbacks have contributed to Dr. Merkel’s weakness.
Since leaving the party presidency two years ago, Dr. Merkel has lost influence within the party structures. There was also a loss of political influence when she announced that she will not run for another term as chancellor in the upcoming 2021 elections. Dr. Merkel is not a lame duck yet, but her political environment is clearly already focused on a future without her. .
Although the Chancellor is accused of not having been strict enough in recent months, another conflict is already looming. Although BioNTech, one of the companies that was among the first to develop a vaccine against Covid-19, is German, it now appears that Germany will not be able to acquire enough doses to vaccinate people until the summer of next year.
Berlin wanted strictly to follow the line of the European Union and not make use of the advantage of playing at home. This means that Germany will receive the vaccine no earlier than all other EU members and only according to an allocation key. But according to a report by Der Spiegel, the EU may not have contracted enough doses or signed agreements with the wrong partners.
While BioNTech-Pfizer’s vaccine production is underway, British-Swedish AstraZeneca is in trouble with its testing, French Sanofi can only get the green light by the end of 2021 and Curevac, also German, will probably need another half a year until your vaccine is ready. Germany, which needs a total of up to 120 million doses for around 70% of the population to get vaccinated twice, will now probably have to wait until well into the fall or even winter of next year until full immunization is achieved. .
Meanwhile, vaccinations are already underway in Britain and the United States.
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