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SINGAPORE: The total number of people employed here continued to decline in the third quarter, but at a significantly slower pace, as resident employment recovered “strongly” to near-pre-pandemic levels.
In addition to the faster drop in non-resident employment, foreigners, excluding maids, accounted for nearly nine out of ten of the total employment contraction during the first nine months of the year, according to data from the Labor Ministry (MOM) on Thursday (December 17).
Total employment, excluding foreign domestic workers, contracted by 29,100 during the period from July to September. This is a “significantly” slower pace compared to a decline of 103,800 in the second quarter.
About 2.34 million Singaporeans and permanent residents were employed in September, following a rise of 43,200 in the third quarter that offset most of the declines in the first half of the year. The level of employment for residents is now almost on par with the pre-COVID-19 pandemic: about 2.35 million locals were employed in September last year.
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The rebound reflected “strong” support measures for local employment, including the Employment Support Plan and SGUnited’s Skills and Jobs Package programs, MOM said.
On the other hand, the contraction of non-resident employment continued in the third quarter – 72,300 – at a faster pace than in the two previous quarters. Construction and manufacturing are among the sectors with the biggest drops.
In total, during the first nine months of 2020, non-residents accounted for nearly nine out of ten of the total employment contraction. This figure, excluding maids, amounted to 139,100.
The contraction in the employment of residents was 19,600 in the same period.
SLOWER INCREASES IN UNEMPLOYMENT, RETRENICES
MOM said its preliminary estimates for the third quarter had shown “some signs of improvement” in the labor market. The full data for the quarter showed trends “similar” to its previous assessment.
Seasonally adjusted unemployment rates increased in September, reaching 4.9% among citizens, 4.7% among residents and 3.6% overall, but the pace of increase has “slowed markedly”.
The resident unemployment rate rose 0.1 percentage point in September, below the monthly increase of 0.4 percentage points in July and August, respectively. A similar moderation was also seen in the rise in general and citizen unemployment rates, MOM said.
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But residents in their 40s and 50s, as well as those with a high school education and below, saw relatively larger increases in unemployment rates compared to other age and education groups.
For the month of October, unemployment rates were very similar to those of September. It increased 0.1 percentage points for the resident unemployment rate, but remained unchanged for the general and citizen rates.
Similarly, reductions increased at a slower pace in the third quarter.
A total of 9,120 workers were laid off in the third quarter, compared with 8,130 in the second quarter and 3,220 in the first quarter. The layoffs occurred mainly in the arts, entertainment and recreation industries, and related to air transportation.
Other sectors such as financial services, wholesale trade and food and beverage services saw a decrease in staff cuts, MOM said.
Meanwhile, among resident employees, more professionals, managers, executives and technicians (PMET) are laid off in the third quarter. PMET’s downsizing incidence increased from 2.7 to 3.7 per 1,000 PMET employees.
The non-PMET staff reduction rate (4.3 per 1,000 non-PMET workers) remained stable during the quarter.
The increase in PMET staff reductions during the third quarter was due “to a change in the composition of the reduction establishments,” MOM said.
“In general, PMETs remained less susceptible to reductions compared to non-PMETs,” he added.
GRADUAL COLLECTION
Other indicators pointing to a “gradual rebound” in the labor market include far fewer employees placed on a short work week or temporary layoffs as business resumes and employees return to work.
Job vacancies rose for the first time this year to 49,600 in September, down from a decade low of 42,400 in June. This resulted in an improvement in the vacancy to unemployed ratio to 0.6 from 0.57 during the quarter.
The increase was due to the availability of more PMET positions in sectors such as information and communications, professional services, and health and social services. There were also more roles for non-PMETs in construction, administrative and support services, as well as in manufacturing.
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For the third quarter, a total of 34,240 employees were placed on a short work week or temporary layoffs, more than half of the 81,720 in the second quarter due to a reduction in the latter.
The decline in short-term work or temporary layoffs was most prominent in sectors that previously saw higher increases, such as manufacturing, construction, and food and beverage services. It also declined the most among non-PMETs, although they still made up the majority (65 percent) of workers placed on a short workweek or temporary layoffs in the third quarter.
Other indicators include the average paid hours worked, which went from 43.4 hours a week in June to 43.8 hours in September, reflecting an increase in overtime.
In terms of job turnover, the MOM report showed that average monthly hiring and resignation rates rose to 1.6 percent in the third quarter, compared to record lows of 1.1 percent and 1.2 percent. percent in the previous three months.
MOM said this increase is in line with the gradual resumption of hiring and voluntary job change as labor market activity picks up in most industries. The only exception was the security and research industry, which experienced a decline in the resignation rate, probably due to strong demand for labor in the sector.
But compared to a year ago, the overall job rotation was quiet.
PERFORMANCE “UNEQUAL” BETWEEN SECTORS
Across all sectors, MOM saw an “uneven” improvement in the labor market in the third quarter.
“While business activities have progressively resumed, uncertainties in external economic conditions continued to weigh more heavily in some sectors,” the report said.
The sectors in which telecommuting is most likely or the consumer-oriented sectors that benefited from the end of the “circuit breaker” saw the greatest improvements. This included sectors such as public administration and education, food and beverage services, health and social services, and information and communications.
Those that experienced a “mixed” recovery included construction, which experienced a prolonged period of restrictions and recorded a continued contraction in total employment. However, paid hours worked, as well as vacancies, increased with the gradual resumption of work.
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There was also inequality in the recovery of the labor market in sectors oriented abroad, such as manufacturing and wholesale trade.
Industries dependent on tourism, including accommodation, transportation, and storage, as well as arts, entertainment, and recreation, saw the least improvements.
Looking ahead, MOM said that uncertainty in the economic environment and weak demand conditions will continue to weigh on the recovery of the local labor market.
“COVID-19 has also accelerated the pace of business transformation, and unlike cyclical recessions, some jobs may not return. As such, the recovery in the labor market may remain protracted beyond the immediate rebound, ”he said.
