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MELBOURNE: When the history of this latest low point in China-Australia relations is written, both sides will be blamed for the mistakes.
Australia is not blameless. However, China is primarily responsible for the continuing deterioration of the relationship.
His cruelty in asserting himself far and wide, by fair and dirty means, means there will be no turning back to the status quo that prevailed before President Xi Jinping emerged in 2013 as China’s most nationalist leader since Mao Zedong.
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Similarly, Beijing’s crude use of trade sanctions to penalize Australia for real or imagined slights means that a business relationship born of mutual benefits runs the risk of being subject to persistent politically motivated interference.
This is reality, whether we like it or not. China is done with “biding the time” on the advice of former leader Deng Xiaoping in pursuit of its ambitions for great power.
It may no longer be correct to describe China as a “rising power.” Power has increased.
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POLICY FAILURE ON THE GO
What is clear is that Canberra has vastly underestimated the speed of change in the Asia-Pacific region and, more specifically, the costs associated with sticking to old models of doing business.
This is not an argument for walking away from the American alliance, the cornerstone of Australian security. Rather, a more realistic assessment of what is and is not in the national interest is required.
FILE PHOTO: Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison arrives at Haneda Airport in Tokyo, Japan, on November 17, 2020. REUTERS / Issei Kato
What is not in the national interest are policies that unnecessarily antagonize the dominant client of the nation.
Again, this does not justify excusing China’s bad behavior, or suggesting in any way that the customer is always right. He is simply saying that gratuitous provocations should be avoided.
Multiple episodes stand out that have marked, and in some cases scarred, Canberra’s relations with Beijing since Xi came to power.
All of these moments have contributed to the deterioration of the relationship to the point where Australia now risks damaging its long-term economic interests. This is a policy error on the fly.
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THREE HARMFUL EPISODES
Three episodes have been particularly damaging.
The first and almost certainly the most devastating was the decision in early 2019 for Australia to take the lead role in lobbying its Five Eyes partners to exclude the Chinese company Huawei from supplying technology for its 5G networks.
Australia’s decision to exclude Huawei from its own 5G rollout is one thing, and pressuring others to follow suit is another.
READ: Comment: It was always difficult for Huawei to stay in western markets
What made decision-makers in Canberra put in charge of putting Australia at the forefront of a global campaign against China’s economic interests remains a mystery.
To say that this decision infuriated Beijing would be an understatement, except that Australia had every right to exclude Huawei if it was considered in the interest of national security to do so.
People wearing masks as a preventive measure against COVID-19 walk past the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan, China, on November 24, 2020 (Photo: Hector RETAMAL / AFP).
The second damaging episode involved Prime Minister Scott Morrison who volunteered to lead the charge of an investigation into China’s responsibility for the coronavirus that emerged in the city of Wuhan in late 2019.
Again, it is unclear why Morrison took it upon himself to coordinate such an investigation, when one was on the train under the auspices of the World Health Organization anyway.
Beijing’s furious response could have been anticipated, with the editor of the state-run Global Times referring to Australia as “gum stuck to the sole of China’s shoe.”
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The third damaging episode involved Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s decision to prevent Hong Kong-listed China Mengniu Dairy from taking over Japanese-owned Lion Dairy and Drinks in a 600 million Australian dollar (450 million Australian American dollars).
By rejecting Mengniu’s takeover offer, Frydenberg overruled the advice of the Foreign Investment Review Board and the Treasury, which had supported the deal.
This was a politically motivated decision to satisfy critics of the sale of Australian assets to Chinese entities. It certainly reinforced Beijing’s view that Australia’s foreign investment approval process leans against Chinese companies.
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DOES CANBERRA HAVE A PLAN FOR CHINA?
Similarly, the Australian government’s foreign relations bill, passed by parliament this week, can be read as an attempt to tighten Canberra’s grip on a panoply of relations between Australian states, territories and educational institutions and their counterparts. Chinese.
Canberra could pretend this is a blanket bill intended to affirm the federal government’s oversight of the Commonwealth’s foreign policy making responsibilities. But it is actually aimed directly at contacts with Chinese entities.
The Belt and Road Initiative plans to link China with Africa, Asia and Europe through a network of ports, railways, roads and industrial parks (Photo: AFP / JANEK SKARZYNSKI0
The Victoria Belt and Road agreement with Beijing is in the sights of the bill, along with the Northern Territory’s agreement with China’s Landbridge Group to lease part of Darwin Harbor.
There is a central question in all of this: Does the Morrison government really have an overarching game plan for dealing with China, or is it just moving from one crisis to the next?
Clearly, Australia’s foreign policy makers have been unable to navigate treacherous diplomatic terrain and avoid the pitfalls that have brought Sino-Australian relations to an all-time low.
Morrison’s foreign policy team has also proven ineffective in dealing with pressure from those in his government’s own ranks who are particularly fond of Beijing. Such antagonism has proven to be a dead weight in China’s constructive policymaking.
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This brings us to Morrison’s own reaction to the offensive tweet showing a doctored image of an Australian soldier holding a knife to the throat of an Afghan boy.
Shortly after it was shared by a spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, Morrison took to television to denounce both the official and the crude cartoon.
No one could reasonably object to the prime minister’s outrage. However, he should not have stooped to involve a Chinese specialist in a discussion about a graphic piece of Chinese propaganda.
This should have been left to the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Marise Payne, or, better yet, the head of the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. Morrison further compounded the problem by vainly demanding an apology.
Morrison called the tweet a ‘scandalous and disgusting insult’ against the Australian armed forces AFP / DAVID GRAY
Morrison’s clumsy handling of the issue speaks to China’s lack of literacy among his advisers.
AN AUSTRALIAN ECHO MEDIA CHAMBER
The Australian media has also played a role in amplifying anti-Beijing views to such an extent that they have had a dampening effect on the reasonable discussion of managing the country’s Chinese policy more effectively.
The business community, for example, has been discouraged, even intimidated, from speaking out for fear of being accused of pandering to Beijing for their own selfish reasons.
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All of this adds to pressure on lawmakers to follow a one-dimensional approach of “stand up to Chinese bullying,” not giving ground and attributing the worst possible motives to what China says or does.
This is not a substitute for a rigorous, well-articulated and carefully thought-out approach to managing a highly complex relationship in the national interest.
As it stands, those in charge of framing Australia’s policies with China are not doing this and, as a result, Australia’s best interests are clearly not being served.
Tony Walker is a fellow of the Vice Chancellor of La Trobe University. This comment first appeared on The Conversation.
