[ad_1]
BOSTON, Massachusetts: On January 1 of this year, the Korean Workers’ Party released a report on its goals for the year, emphasizing simultaneous economic construction and nuclear development.
But with the coronavirus pandemic, a struggling economy and natural disasters, the country has faced a triple blow.
Unexpected difficulties have derailed North Korea’s five-year economic plan (2016-21), forcing its president, Kim Jong-un, to acknowledge “shortcomings” and schedule a rare Party Congress in January 2021 to do in the face of ongoing economic problems.
A look at North Korea’s unusual behaviors over the past year could shed light on how insecure Pyongyang has felt. It is also an opportunity to gauge your intentions for 2021, especially around the many uncertainties in relations between the United States and North Korea under the presidency of Joe Biden.
DOUBT ABOUT COVIDED NUMBERS
When North Korea reported zero COVID-19 cases and deaths, there were many doubts about the numbers, given the country’s long border with China and poor healthcare infrastructure.
Recent reports point to many deaths in a single city, and the number of people in quarantine facilities is increasing.
North Korean children wearing face masks against COVID-19 attend classes in Pyongyang, where Kim Jong-Un has praised the country’s response to the coronavirus. (AFP / KIM Won Jin)
There are two reasons why the country could have hidden the true magnitude of the outbreak. First, North Korea did not want to interrupt its socioeconomic plan at an uncertain time.
After the United States refused to lift sanctions last year, the Party highlighted economic self-sufficiency and weapons development as its 2020 goals. Publicizing the number of cases would have meant ceasing economic and military activities and dedicating more resources to fight the virus.
LEE: North Korea executed people, closed the capital to stop COVID-19, says South Korean agency
Second, it would be devastating to Kim’s legitimacy. Publishing numbers requires transparency, as a demonstration of a government’s ability to fulfill its part of the social contract.
Admitting a possible large outbreak would alert the North Korean people to the dilapidated state of its healthcare system and the government’s focus on its weapons program at the expense of social welfare.
Hiding the numbers may also have helped Kim impose cost-saving measures without angering the public, at the same time that he was able to continue developing missiles to signal force.
STRANGE DISAPPEARANCES
The leader is dead, right? Reports pointed to Kim’s unusual absence at the birthday celebration of North Korea’s founder Kim Il-sung on April 15. Many speculated that Kim might be dead or resisting the virus at his private residence in Wonsan.
Kim’s health suddenly became a topic of great interest. It was reported that he underwent a cardiovascular system procedure due to obesity and excessive smoking.
His disappearance quickly revived discussions about the many scenarios of a North Korean collapse, including a succession crisis in Pyongyang, the risks of loose nuclear weapons or an all-out civil war. The rumors only ended when the North Korean leader visited a fertilizer plant in May.
This image taken on May 1, 2020 and published by North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on May 2, 2020 shows North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visiting the completed Suchon phosphate fertilizer factory. in South Pyongan province, North Korea. (Photo: STR / KCNA VIA KNS / AFP)
North Korean watchers quickly noticed an interesting phenomenon: Kim tended to disappear for three-week periods in 2020 starting in late January, coinciding with the time when North Korea closed its border to curb the virus.
Kim disappeared for 25 days in October and only re-emerged to chair a politburo meeting in November. This time, no one attributed his absence to his death.
While the exact causes of Kim’s disappearances are unknown, their frequency suggests that he needed to isolate himself in quarantine. Although Kim has always tried to show his strength in the face of adversity, he is as vulnerable to illness as any other world leader.
Shedding tears and saying I’m sorry
The country has yet to apologize for the killing of a South Korean tourist in 2008 or its attack on Yeonpyeong Island in 2010. But the North Korean leader issued a rare apology to Seoul following the killing of a South Korean citizen in September.
Similarly, during this year’s Party Foundation parade, Kim shed tears over the hardships the North Korean people have endured.
The gesture contradicted the divine mythology that the regime has indoctrinated in its people. On both occasions, Kim expressed his desire to preserve inter-Korean confidence and to hold talks with the South after the pandemic ends.
File photo of people wearing protective masks walking amid COVID-19 concerns in Pyongyang, North Korea. (Photo: Reuters)
Analysts, however, found both Kim’s apology and tears to be insincere. Although he apologized for the incident, he also praised the crew of the patrol boat that killed the South Korean man and rejected Seoul’s request for a joint investigation.
READ: Comment: What good is an apology if North Korean ‘accidents’ keep happening?
North Korea also improved its offensive capabilities in the inter-Korean border area in November.
At the national level, Kim has continued to assert the Party’s control over the economy, tightening the border and imposing more tariffs on imported goods.
In the context of an extended border closure with China, these measures have only increased the burden on North Koreans who depend on the black market and smuggling to make ends meet.
Conditions in North Korea’s quarantine facilities are so bad that people died not from the virus but from malnutrition and poor hygiene. North Korea’s health infrastructure is not equipped to handle an outbreak. With the resurgence of the virus, things are not looking good for Kim.
SILENCE AT WORLDWIDE EVENTS
North Korea has been silent about Biden’s victory, even though the country has acknowledged the results of the US presidential election shortly after the results were announced.
But given Kim’s friendly relationship with Donald Trump, who still has nearly two months left in his term, the country has reason to remain silent. Until now, North Korea has been reluctant to provoke the United States at election time, unlike in the past.
The reason may be that North Korea does not want to unnecessarily goad the incoming president.
Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump shake hands during a 2019 meeting on the southern side of the Military Demarcation Line that divides North and South Korea AFP / Brendan Smialowski
There are reports that Biden may not resume the pre-Trump period “strategic patience” approach, but would be willing to meet with Kim if it were a step toward denuclearization.
READ: Comment: Is South Korea doing enough to tackle its new COVID-19 wave?
Kim can hope to revive the denuclearization talks with Biden and strike a small but realistic tit-for-tat deal, compared to Trump’s all-or-nothing approach. Some relief from sanctions in exchange for a gun control deal should be a viable solution.
South Korea is pressuring the Biden administration to engage North Korea and use the Tokyo 2021 Olympics as an occasion to reignite talks, similar to the 2018 Pyeongchang Olympics.
Although silent on Biden’s victory, North Korea is rewriting its diplomatic strategy toward the US by allowing job-level diplomats to take on a bigger role, in light of Biden’s preference for bottom-up talks. up before the summits.
WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN 2021?
The only routine feature of 2020 in North Korea has been the continuation of its nuclear and missile programs. The country introduced new monster-sized intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) and submarine-launched (SLBM) at the parade celebrating the Workers’ Party Foundation.
Experts argue that new ICBMs can better penetrate US missile defense systems, and SLBMSs are more robust because they are solid fuels and require less time to prepare.
READ: Comment: North Korea will never abandon its nuclear weapons
The country continues to produce fissile material and is about to expand its plutonium production capacity, highlighting the failure of international sanctions to curb its nuclear program.
Despite the economic crisis, Kim would be pleased with the nuclear progress he has made in the past year.
Biden faces a North Korea with more sophisticated nuclear and missile programs, and his goals should be to prevent Pyongyang from dominating re-entry capability and to freeze its nuclear production.
Trump’s diplomacy has failed to achieve those goals, but it sets a framework for future negotiations. North Korea is at a vulnerable time and ready to give the United States and South Korea another chance. President Biden should not waste the opportunity.
Khang Vu is a doctoral student in the Department of Political Science at Boston College, where he focuses on East Asian politics and nuclear weapons. This comment first appeared on the Lowy Institute’s The Interpreter blog.
