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OTTAWA: Canada could see the end of a nasty diplomatic row with China if the United States reaches an agreement to release a Huawei executive from house arrest in Vancouver, but the matter shows that without the weight of its southern neighbor, Canada will not. has bargaining power. with Beijing.
And even if Huawei Technologies CFO Meng Wanzhou returns to China, bilateral relations still face big challenges.
Shortly after Meng was detained on a US arrest warrant in December 2018, China detained two Canadian men, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, who are now facing espionage charges. for months on a formal “reestablishment” of relations with China.
The idea was to balance taking a firm line on human rights issues and defending Hong Kong’s independence, while working alongside China on issues such as climate change.
Four people directly familiar with the matter said the effort stalled amid internal disagreements over which approach to take and an understanding that Ottawa has very little influence over Beijing.
“The only way to put real pressure on China is for several like-minded nations to form a common front. The United States is the key player here and without them, nothing will happen,” said a person directly familiar with the policy. reestablish conversations.
US prosecutors are discussing an agreement with Meng’s lawyers to resolve the criminal charges against him, a person familiar with the matter said.
“Hopefully the discussions are serious and that a solution can be found, because otherwise I think we would be in trouble for a long time,” Guy Saint-Jacques, former Canadian ambassador to China, told Canadian Broadcasting Corporation.
Canadian officials are silent on whether they are playing any role in the Meng talks, and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau declined to comment when asked about it on Friday. His “top priority” is the release of the detainees, he said.
Foreign policy experts said Canada would have to insist that the administration of US President Donald Trump, which has not always had good relations with Ottawa, get a guarantee from China that it would release Canadians as part of any deal. .
“Without the two Michaels as part of the package, we will have no influence if Meng returns to China,” said Phil Calvert, a former Canadian diplomat in China and now a researcher at the University of Victoria.
Even if Meng were to launch, the remaining challenges include a decision on whether to allow Huawei to supply equipment for next-generation 5G telecommunications networks. Other major allies have imposed a ban, but Ottawa says it is still deciding what to do.
Sources say Canada has effectively blocked Huawei, but does not want to say so publicly for fear of damaging the fate of the two detainees.
Trudeau’s liberal minority government, which relies on other parties to rule, is under pressure from official opposition conservatives to take a much firmer line with China.
“There has not been a reboot. I cannot point to anything that has changed regarding China,” Conservative leader Erin O’Toole said in an interview on November 19.
Champagne’s office referred to comments the foreign minister made last week in which he said Canada would take a flexible approach towards China. He also said “harsh and irresponsible rhetoric” would not help the detainees.
US President-elect Joe Biden said this week that one of his priorities would be to meet with allies “so that we can develop a coherent strategy” on China. It is unclear what role Ottawa would play in such talks.
Like-minded democracies in the region, such as Japan or South Korea, are important allies for any coordinated Chinese policy, said a person familiar with the matter, adding: “Without the United States, Canada has no policy toward China.”
