Japan’s new wave of viruses is older and more severe, data shows

Photographer: Soichiro Koriyama / Bloomberg

Differences between the recent rise in coronavirus in Japan and a moderate wave in the summer are causing lawmakers to pause and forcing experts to adjust their strategies as the country enters winter with a population that is considered the most vulnerable. of the world.

At first glance, the wave of cases since early November appears similar to the summer jump, which was checked with only minor adjustments in policy. But the authorities this time are calling to prepare for the “worst case scenario” as severe cases far exceed the summer peak to a record high.

“We have a sense of urgency over the fact that the number of serious cases has risen to almost 500,” Health Minister Norihisa Tamura said Tuesday. The increase is sending authorities Fight to make sure there are enough beds and doctors for staff.

I mean it

Serious Covid-19 Cases Across the Country Are at a Record Level

Source: Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare.

Japan’s current outbreak is primarily focused on four areas with significant metropolitan populations: the city of Sapporo on the northern island of Hokkaido, which was the first location where cases increased in both the current outbreak and the initial wave in February. ; Aichi, the industrial heart of Toyota Motor Corp .; the commercial homeland of Osaka; and the capital Tokyo.

In many of those regions, beds for the most severe cases are already running out. With Tokyo approaching 50% capacity, the Tokyo Metropolitan Government will ask hospitals to add another 50 beds for severe cases, NHK reported Tuesday. That would bring the total to 200. Bed use fell Tuesday, and the city reported five deaths.

(The definition of “severe case” differs from region to region: Tokyo defines it as those in need of a ventilator or ECMO machine, while the national definition also includes those in an ICU).

Running out of space

Beds for severe Covid-19 cases in Tokyo and Osaka have started to run out

Sources: Tokyo Metropolitan Government, Osaka Prefectural Government

The cause behind the increase in severe cases is not a mystery: An increasing number of older people, who are at higher risk, contract Covid-19 this time, compared to the summer wave.

The trend is particularly pronounced in Tokyo, where young people accounted for a much higher proportion of cases during the summer, helping ease the impact on the health system.

With total infections in Japan reaching 2,000 a day, authorities across the country have called for a three-week period of concentrated efforts against the virus. In each of the four metropolitan areas, bars and restaurants were asked to close early.

“The next three weeks are an extremely important period,” Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga told reporters on Friday. “Together we must overcome this increase in cases.”

More older patients

Patients over the age of 60, at higher risk of severe Covid cases or death, account for a higher percentage of this wave in most hot spots.

Sources: Tokyo Metropolitan Government, Aichi Prefecture, Hokkaido Prefecture

There are some encouraging signs. Cases in Tokyo last week were essentially flat compared to the previous seven days. Other areas, including Hokkaido, are beginning to see the curves flatten out, if not tapering off, leading to hope that the current wave may have peaked.

In spite of concerns that the public may have “pandemic fatigue”, mobility data indicate that calls for bars to close early have the expected impact of reducing movement in nightlife districts.

Still, Japan must prepare for more deaths in the future. More than half of the more than 2,000 coronavirus deaths in the country come from people 80 years of age or older, an age group with a 14% mortality rate, according to data from the Ministry of Health. Japan, with the world’s grayest population, has more than 11.6 million people in that group.

Major suffering

Almost all coronavirus deaths in Japan have been in people aged 60 and over, with those over the age of 80 accounting for more than half.

Source: Ministry of Health of Japan

– With the assistance of James Mayger