Commentary: China’s move on climate action signals its arrival as a ‘hybrid superpower’

BEIJING: In his video address to the United Nations General Assembly in September, Chinese President Xi Jinping announced a slight enhancement to China’s 2015 Paris climate agreement commitment: National carbon dioxide emissions should reach their peak before 2030 instead of around 2030.

It might not sound like much, but, coupled with Xi’s additional statement that China aims to be carbon neutral by 2060, the leadership sent positive shockwaves into the world of climate policy.

Decades of impressive GDP growth have made China the world’s second-largest economy, bigger than the next three (Japan, Germany, and India) combined.

But the outside world still often associates China with dependence on coal, rising CO2 emissions, and polluted air, and for good reason.

READ: Comment: China will bet big on clean energy to achieve carbon neutrality

THE FIRST HYBRID SUPERPOWER

China is possibly the first “hybrid” superpower of the modern era: a world leader that does not yet have a fully advanced economy. And Xi’s two-phase climate promise reflects how the Chinese themselves view their hybrid status.

The country’s more modest climate ambitions through 2030 reflect the persistence of the developing country mentality of its people. After all, many Chinese, and especially today’s leaders, still vividly remember growing up in a poor and backward country.

But with China expected to become a high-income country by 2030, that mentality is giving way to a “rising superpower” mentality, which helps explain why China aspires to become carbon neutral only ten years after. the European Union.

Of course, China’s new climate target for 2060 is currently just an ambition, not a legislated policy. But future administrations are expected to take Xi’s promise seriously.

The scale of the task cannot be underestimated. China now aims to eliminate some ten billion tons of annual CO2 emissions, almost a third of the world’s total, by 2030, which is equivalent to decarbonizing the entire French economy every year for 30 years.

LISTEN: The policy and the way forward for international cooperation on climate mitigation | Ep 7

Sooner or later, China will have no choice but to redouble its climate mitigation efforts in all sectors, particularly energy, industry, transport and agriculture.

CHINA’S AWESOME GREEN ENERGY SECTOR

But there are reasons to be optimistic about China’s prospects for a successful green transition.

As the world’s largest clean energy market, the country accounts for more than a third of the world’s installed wind and solar capacity and (as of the end of 2019) almost half of all electric vehicles.

Furthermore, China’s impressive track record in scaling up clean energy technologies means that its recent commitment to net zero emissions should further fuel the ongoing low-carbon revolution around the world.

READ: Comment: Is China’s ambitious carbon promise just lip service?

For example, if China decides to increase its hydrogen economy ambition, it is hard to imagine that the EU, Japan, South Korea and other major advanced economies will not follow suit to stay competitive.

Of course, 2060 is a long way off, so the world will be watching to see if Xi’s promise is translated into concrete action in China’s upcoming 14th Five-Year Plan, which covers the period 2021-2025. Optimizing investments in the Chinese energy sector by 2060 requires domestic CO2 emissions to peak sooner rather than later.

But China’s leadership, especially provincial governors, may find it difficult to balance this long-term strategic interest with the short-term economic gains from carbon-intensive investments.

A COALITION OF DISPOSEDS ON CLIMATE ACTION

The international community, and the EU in particular, could help China move forward by involving it in a coalition of people willing to climate action.

This group could also include Japan and South Korea, whose pledges to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 encompass all greenhouse gases.

Chinese climate policy would benefit from such a global effort. China’s recent announcement notably omitted any mention of the country’s overseas investments, especially in countries participating in the Xi Belt and Road Initiative of transnational infrastructure projects.

So far, China has channeled much of its BRI investment into fossil fuel projects, although the BRI has started to invest more in renewables.

READ: Comment: We sure believe some weird things about the China Belt and Road Initiative

That said, BRI’s investments are the responsibility of the host country, as well as China, so greening the initiative’s investments requires a push from both, if not global, sides.

It is encouraging that Joe Biden’s victory in the recent US presidential election heralds a reversal of the current deglobalization trend, which could not only stabilize a rules-based international order, but also boost investment in sustainable infrastructure in many parts of the world.

LISTEN: How will the Biden presidency drive US and global action on climate change? | EP 13

A CALCULATED MOVEMENT, AN ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM

But the United States, the world’s largest economy and second-largest emitter of CO2, is the elephant in the room, and Xi certainly made his climate promise with America in mind.

By joining the Paris agreement, China helped President Barack Obama leave a legacy in climate policy, in exchange for less contentious Sino-US relations.

But while Biden has vowed to rejoin the Paris accord on the first day of his administration, China’s leaders feel the United States now has little appetite to work together on climate issues.

In other words, China has dramatically and unilaterally improved its long-term climate ambitions without asking the United States (or the EU, for that matter) for anything in return.

In doing so, he has strongly supported the policies the EU has adopted and has put Biden in an awkward position.

With the American public divided and climate science politicized, rejoining the Paris agreement will not make the United States a trusted actor in international climate policy.

China, for its part, is the world’s largest CO2 emitter, accounting for almost 30 percent of the world total.

LISTEN: Getting to the heart of energy and climate change

Xi’s new promise is therefore a calculated strategic move that not only surprised national and international audiences alike, but also significantly advanced the global climate agenda in the medium and long term.

TIME FOR EUROPE TO DO MORE

After US President Donald Trump announced his intention to withdraw the United States from the Paris agreement in June 2017, the EU was briefly a lone climate leader.

China, Japan and South Korea have already joined it, but the EU, like the others, has yet to make its climate neutrality target legally binding.

China’s ambitious commitment has put the ball back on the European pitch.

The EU should pick up where China left off and make its 2050 climate pledge mandatory during the German presidency, which expires at the end of 2020.

Kevin Tu, Senior Advisor to Agora Energiewende, is an Adjunct Professor at Beijing Normal University.