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An attendant fills a truck with compressed hydrogen at a gas station in Shanghai.
Photographer: Qilai Shen / Bloomberg
Photographer: Qilai Shen / Bloomberg
Tesla Inc. CEO Elon Musk has spent years scoffing at the idea of using hydrogen fuel cells instead of electric batteries to power next-generation green vehicles. “Fuel cells = fool sells”, the head of the main electric companyAutomobile manufacturer tweeted in June.
China, the world’s largest market for electric vehicles, is not quick to rule out the alternative to batteries. Officials are promoting the development of hydrogen-powered cars, trucks and buses, with Beijing offering to reward cities that achieve adoption goals.
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In a 15-year plan for new energy vehicles launched on Nov.2, China’s State Council said the country will focus on building the fuel cell supply chain and developing hydrogen-powered trucks and buses. President Xi Jinping set a 2030 deadline in September for China to start reducing carbon emissions.
“Hydrogen is expected to play a much larger role in dramatically reducing the country’s greenhouse gas emissions,” said Kevin Jianjun Tu, non-resident member of the The French think tank Ifri wrote in a report published in October.
Hydrogen still not on fire
Few fuel cell vehicles were available worldwide in early 2020
BloombergNEF estimates
China is aiming to have 1 million fuel cell vehicles in operation by 2030, according to an energy saving vehicle development plan drawn up by the authorities, despite the fact that only 2,700 cars of this type were sold in the country last year.
The nation’s renewed interest in hydrogen could put it further ahead of the United States in next-generation cars, even as President-elect Joe Biden tries to promote the development of clean cars.
Read more: How hydrogen is and is not the future of energy: Andreas Kluth
In theory, fuel cells are an ideal alternative to the internal combustion engine, since their chemical reactions of hydrogen and oxygen do not emit carbon. However, fueling vehicles with hydrogen can be expensive and most of China’s supply comes from burning fossil fuels. The difficulties of storing and transporting hydrogen add to the cost.
Trucks, Buses
As the supply of hydrogen generated by solar and wind power increases, the economy may improve. A utility company is spending more than $ 3 billion on a wind and solar farm in Inner Mongolia that produce up to 500,000 tons of hydrogen per year, and operations are expected to begin in 2021.
State oil refiner Sinopec said on Oct. 29 that it is investing in hydrogen production, transportation, and fuel cells and construction of hydrogen vehicle refueling stations.
The new infrastructure will likely support hydrogen-powered trucks and buses, and lithium-ion batteries will remain dominant for cars. Hydrogen makes sense for commercial vehicles, as a fuel cell car can last longer on a single tank of hydrogen compared to one that runs on batteries and on a single charge of electricity, according to Wang Chaoyun, president of Anhui Mingtian Hydrogen Energy Technology Co., a startup that develops fuel cell cells and other internal mechanisms for hydrogen vehicles.
Filling the hydrogen tank is also much faster than recharging an EV battery.
China’s annual sales of fuel cell vehicles will increase tenfold in the next five years to 50,000 units before reaching half a million in 2035, says Wang, who predicts that China will become the number one market in three years.
Based in Shanghai SAIC Motor Corp. said in September that it plans to launch 10 hydrogen vehicles by 2025.
Beijing SinoHytec Co., which develops hydrogen fuel cell engines, raised about 1.4 billion yuan ($ 213 million) in an initial public offering in August and is one of the five Chinese companies that in June partnered with Toyota Motor Corp. to develop fuel cell systems for commercial vehicles.
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The Japanese automaker sees the market as dominated by hydrogen-powered trucks and buses rather than cars, said Chisato Yoshifuji, Toyota’s project manager. “China is concentrating on commercial vehicles and that aligns with Toyota’s thinking,” he said. “It’s a great trend backed by the government.”
Beer delivery
Other foreign-backed companies also see opportunities in hydrogen trucks. Hyundai Motor Co. on Nov 5 announced agreements with five Chinese partners to promote the development of commercial hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.
“Hyundai believes that China has enormous potential for hydrogen-powered commercial vehicles,” said In Cheol Lee, Hyundai’s executive vice president and head of the commercial vehicle division. Hyundai and its regional partners aim to supply some 4,000 commercial fuel cell electric vehicles in China by 2025.
The Asian subsidiary of the beverage giant Anheuser-Busch InBev SA / NV, meanwhile, added four hydrogen fuel cell trucks to its fleet, the company announced on September 28. It plans to deliver beer using the trucks, making China the first country where the company has deployed such vehicles for beer shipments.
“Pure electric vehicles and fuel cell cars are equally important in our new energy vehicle development strategy and will coexist in the long term,” said Wan Gang, vice chair of China’s national advisory body for policy making and often called the father of the country’s electric car movement, he said in January.
Many skeptics share Musk’s doubts. Fuel cells are less efficient than batteries, and the cost of building supporting infrastructure such as gas stations is much higher, according to a report published this month by IDTechEx, a Cambridge, England research firm. Fuel cell vehicles “will remain a commercial failure for the next two decades,” he said.
And for now, Chinese leaders can keep their options open while they wait to see how the technology develops.
Fuel cell engines at ReFire headquarters in Shanghai.
Photographer: Qilai Shen / Bloomberg
“The limited details in this plan suggest that, domestically, policy makers are still deliberating on the role of hydrogen in China’s energy economy and the country’s goal of carbon neutrality by 2060,” wrote Bloomberg analystsNEF Siyi. Mi and Jinghong Lyu in a report. released on November 13, with reference to China’s 15-year plan for new energy vehicles.
ReFire, a Shanghai startup that makes fuel cell engines, is a company that is nevertheless bracing for an increase in demand. It manufactures around 1,000 engines a year for Chinese truck and bus producers and expects annual capacity to rise to 20,000 as early as 2024. The competitiveness gap with electric vehicles will narrow as hydrogen gains acceptance, the director said. executive Robin Lin.
“There is a great possibility of a dramatic drop in hydrogen prices,” he said. “As long as hydrogen energy is cheap enough, it will be a natural choice.”
– With the help of Bruce Einhorn, Ying Tian, Chunying Zhang and River Davis
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