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SINGAPORE – It’s a very different Asia that US President-elect Joe Biden will face when he takes office, and the incoming leader of the world superpower must be prepared to consult the region on their perspectives and listen to their points. of sight.
This was the message that veteran Singaporean diplomat and former ambassador to the United States Chan Heng Chee had for Biden and his administration, which he shared at The Straits Times’ inaugural Geopolitical Reboot 2021 webinar on Thursday (November 19). ). Panelists at the forum included Professor Chan’s longtime diplomat Tommy Koh, also a former Singaporean ambassador to the United States.
The two diplomatic heavyweights, both ambassadors-at-large from Singapore’s Foreign Office, but speaking in a personal capacity, discussed how the United States under Biden’s leadership is likely to handle its relations in Asia in areas including trade, technology. and political ideologies. They were joined by ST’s US bureau chief Nirmal Ghosh and Beijing-based global affairs correspondent Benjamin Kang Lim, as well as moderator and associate editor Vikram Khanna.
“I want to tell President Biden that when he returns … he will find a very different Asia. In the past four years, Asia has changed,” said Professor Chan, adding that Asian nations have since developed a greater sense of agency and belief that they can shape their own future.
“(Asian countries) have taken a lot of initiatives in the absence of American leadership. And they (Biden’s team) should take that into account. Therefore, they should come to the region, but they should consult and listen.”
Professor Koh, who is also the rector of Tembusu College at the National University of Singapore, urged Biden’s team to prioritize pragmatism over ideology in their policies towards Asia, so that they are not doomed to failure.
“Every American administration … must uphold the values of democracy and human rights. But I hope that in their formulation and implementation of policies toward Asia, they will allow realism, pragmatism and wisdom to prevail over ideology,” he said. “Any attempt by the Biden administration to divide Asia and form an anti-China coalition will fail and will not be welcomed.”
A return to structure and stability.
Both ambassadors agreed that the Biden administration will be an improvement for ties between the United States and Asia, ushering in a period of greater predictability, stability, professionalism and structure for the region than it has been under Trump.
The United States under Biden is ready to re-embrace multilateralism and look once again toward strengthening alliances around the world, they said, and the president-elect pledged to join the World Health Organization and the climate accord of Paris upon taking office, both of whom Mr. Trump has walked away from.
Biden or his vice president-elect Kamala Harris could attend the upcoming ASEAN summit, raising the importance of the regional body and Southeast Asia to US politics, as former President Barack Obama did, Professor Koh said.
But when it comes to US-China ties, America’s defining relationship in Asia, Biden would find it very difficult to reverse the downward course, given the extremely negative views of China in the US public, political and economic spheres. .
“My own prediction is that Biden will end Trump’s ‘cold war’ against China, but he will not be able to return the relationship to what it was during the Obama administration,” said Professor Koh. “The ‘cold war’ will be replaced by a ‘cold peace’ … in which the two countries do not see each other as enemies, so they are at peace, but there is no warmth in the relationship, because there is a strategic trust deficit” .
The head of the US office, Nirmal Ghosh, agreed: “Biden’s advisers … are talking about a competition without catastrophes … There is a feeling that the competition between the United States and China has gotten out of control.” .
The issue of import tariffs imposed by Trump on China will likely become more focused in the second half of 2021, but removing them may require “specific reciprocity” in which China might have to give up something in return, Professor Chan said.
The United States should compete in capacity
Beijing-based global affairs correspondent Benjamin Lim Kang opined that if Biden stopped Washington’s attempts to decouple the US and Chinese economies, Beijing could also change its stance on its own “dual circulation” policy: a strategic and defensive movement towards himself. -sufficiency in trade and technology in response to US aggression under Trump.
Items on Beijing’s wish list for the Biden administration, Lim said, included an end to the Sino-US “tech war,” in which Trump imposed export bans, sanctions and controls to disrupt Chinese technological advancement. , allegedly for national security reasons. worries.
The best way for the United States to compete with China for global technological supremacy, an area of strategic importance to both powers, is to strengthen its own research capacity, Professor Chan said, adding that Biden himself had previously made this point.
“The United States hasn’t funded R&D the way it used to. (Mr. Biden) talks about it. You (should aim to) beat China because its technology is superior, its research is superior. And I think that’s the way to Let’s go, “said the veteran diplomat who also chairs the Lee Kuan Yew Center for Innovative Cities at the Singapore University of Technology and Design.
On global trade, Professor Koh said that pulling out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a proposed trade pact between 12 countries on both sides of the Pacific, excluding China, was one of Trump’s biggest mistakes.
After the withdrawal of the United States, the pact was revised to become the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement of Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) of 11 nations now in force, but it is unlikely that Washington will rejoin it even under Biden, said.
The signing this month of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) between 15 Asia-Pacific nations, including China, may pressure Biden to engage more in trade with the region, but even then, he would face substantial obstacles in agreeing to any multilateral agreement. commercial pact.
“American politicians have succeeded in demonizing free trade and the TPP, so much so that … the political cost for Joe Biden to join the CPTPP is too high and he will not go through Congress,” said Professor Koh. “American leadership … should wake up. Do you want to be alone in the world, or do you want to be … leading the world? That is the choice of the people of Washington.”
Some tensions will remain
Although a Biden presidency may ease severely strained US-China ties, some areas of tension have already become a reality with little chance of reversing, such as the US Freedom of Navigation Operations (Fonops). In the South China Sea, according to Professor Chan.
Those operations in the disputed waters, which involve the U.S. Navy sailing to enforce internationally recognized freedoms despite competing claims from various countries, are now routine exercises, he said.
Several Asian nations, such as China, Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Vietnam, claim the waters and islands of the South China Sea. Beijing claims most of the disputed waters, citing its historic maritime rights within what it calls the “nine-dash line.”
“When Trump took a firm stance on the South China Sea, there was some backlash from the complainants … Regional countries also took a stronger stance (against Beijing’s claims there),” Professor Chan said, adding that Biden’s team would have noticed that and they are likely to continue their vigilance in the waters, although they are unlikely to “be as provocative as Trump.”
The problems in Taiwan and Hong Kong will also persist, given strong bipartisan support in the United States to ensure the protection of freedoms in both economies, the two ambassadors said.
Don’t sell ‘democracy’
Washington’s resolve to protect autonomous Taiwan from perceived threats from Beijing would be even stronger under a Democratic president, given the party’s core beliefs in upholding democracy, human rights and the rule of law, said Professor Koh. .
But he cautioned against Biden’s stated intention to host a world summit for democracy, given the differing interpretations of what democracy means and how such a forum could run the risk of excluding some US allies like the communist Vietnam.
“You can, without using the word ‘democracy’, advocate good governance or the rule of law or inclusive growth … instead of choosing an issue where you exclude half your friends,” said Professor Koh. “It is (also) a matter of priority. In today’s world, what is the most important challenge facing the world? It is Covid-19, and we must prepare for a future pandemic.”
Professor Chan had this advice for a Biden presidency seeking to defend democracy abroad: “The United States can show that it stands up for democracy, good governance, and human rights in other ways. Say the actions when you see (that) they are wrong, which was something the Trump administration didn’t do in the last four years. “
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