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COLOGNE: In a speech to the UN General Assembly in September, Chinese President Xi Jinping made the world’s largest climate commitment to date by stating that China would become carbon neutral by 2060.
The importance of this declaration for the global fight against climate change cannot be underestimated.
There is also good reason to believe that, despite inherent challenges, China could deliver on its promise.
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China remains the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter, producing 28% of global emissions, more than the United States and the European Union combined.
To become carbon neutral, China must reduce its carbon emissions by around 90 percent and offset the rest through natural systems or technologies that absorb more carbon from the atmosphere than they emit.
If successful, China’s domestic effort alone could reduce global warming projections by 0.2 to 0.3 degrees Celsius.
More than 60 other countries have committed to carbon neutrality by 2050, a deadline that scientists believe must be met to prevent the planet from overheating altogether, but none of these efforts matter if China does not initiate drastic changes to its models. energy consumption.
President Xi Jinping’s carbon promise came as a surprise, as China has relied heavily on coal to fuel its economic emergency AFP / NOEL CELIS
SCARCE DETAILS
Despite Xi’s big announcement, details have been scant, leaving commentators wondering how exactly China will define carbon neutrality or what steps it will take to ensure this happens.
Neither the Ministry of Ecology and Environment of China, charged with implementing and enforcing environmental policies and regulations, nor the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), which has extensive administrative control over China’s economic planning, including the energy policy, have published official guidelines.
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China’s next five-year plan for national economic and social development, to be published in late 2020 and spanning from 2021 to 2025, should indicate China’s level of commitment to the economic, industrial and environmental changes necessary for a far transition. of fossils. fuels and achieve carbon neutrality.
BEWARE OF CHARCOAL
The first key objective to consider is coal. China’s economy still relies heavily on coal, of which it is almost completely self-sufficient.
China accounts for about half of the world’s coal consumption and half of its energy capacity from coal.
A reduction in total coal consumption targets and coal power capacity, or even targets set within a relative range to allow room for maneuver, would be a strong indication that China intends to change its consumption pattern. of energy.
Australia is seeking clarification on whether China has imposed import restrictions on Australian coal. (Photo: AFP / WILLIAM WEST)
OBSERVE RENEWABLE ENERGIES
The other key objectives to consider are renewable energy sources.
Over the past decade, China has quietly led the world in developing clean energy technologies that make its plan to become carbon neutral possible.
China is by far the largest investor, producer and consumer of renewable energy in the world. It manufactures state-of-the-art solar panels, wind turbines and hydroelectric power installations and is the world’s largest producer of electric cars and buses.
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One in three solar panels and wind turbines in the world is located in China, and it is the world leader in the production of batteries to power electric vehicles and store renewable energy in power grids.
The combination of Chinese technological advancement and its ability to rapidly achieve economies of scale in clean energy production have lowered the cost of these technologies to the point that they are threatening its fossil fuel competitors around the world and allowing China to export. its clean energy technology to other countries. developing countries.
For example, although the number and value of renewable energy projects overall remains small compared to oil and gas projects, China is Africa’s largest bilateral partner for clean energy projects on the continent.
China has made extensive use of the Clean Development Mechanism created under the Kyoto Protocol to establish green projects such as wind farms and small hydroelectric projects. (Photo: AFP / Liu Jin)
By the end of 2020, more than 10 percent of Africa’s total power generation capacity will be in clean energy projects developed with Chinese financial backing and built by Chinese companies.
IN THE INTEREST OF CHINA’S NATIONAL SECURITY
The good news for the global climate is that becoming self-sufficient in clean energy is in the interests of China’s national security.
Environmental pollution cuts significant points from China’s GDP each year, and many analysts believe that China is approaching the peak of fossil fuel generation.
The announcements by China’s three largest state oil companies, PetroChina, Sinopec, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) that they are reinvesting in zero-emission technologies and committing to near-zero emissions by 2050, is a clear indication that the government of China is taking this seriously.
Stepping up to lead global efforts on climate change is also a canny geopolitical move at a time when the United States is seen as withdrawing from the world stage.
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China is now likely waiting to see what climate policy changes emerge from the new US administration before making concrete commitments.
A final thought is that healthy competition between China and the United States for climate change supremacy could fuel an economic renaissance, a “green war” that could ultimately benefit the planet.
The results could be additional support for emerging economies with investments in clean energy, large-scale renewable energy projects and the development of a sustainable global green economy.
Dr. Cornelia Tremann is an independent consultant and representative of Senegal and Gabon for China Africa Advisory. This comment first appeared on the Lowy Institute’s The Interpreter blog.
