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HANOI: Southeast Asian leaders kick off meetings on Thursday (November 12) that are expected to lead to a trade deal at a time when the still uncertain outcome of the US elections leaves doubts about their commitment to the region.
Leaders of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand are scheduled to conclude talks on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) this Sunday.
The deal, expected to be signed later Sunday on the sidelines of a four-day ASEAN summit mostly online in Hanoi, will take years to complete but will progressively lower tariffs in many areas and could become the largest trade deal in the world.
The 15 countries participating in the RCEP represent almost a third of the world’s population and account for 29% of the world’s gross domestic product. China is already the largest source of imports and destination of exports for prospective RCEP members.
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“The signing of the RCEP will boost regional trade, particularly among the signatories,” said Nguyen Quoc Dung, Vietnam’s deputy foreign minister, who is chairing ASEAN meetings this year.
The summit comes as the outcome of the US presidential election has yet to be declared even though Democrat Joe Biden is expected to have comfortably won the necessary 270 electoral votes.
Biden, who was vice president during President Barack Obama’s “Asian turn”, is expected to move away from Trump’s “America First” agenda and become more actively involved in the region.
But legal challenges to the election result and Trump’s firing of the US Defense Secretary may raise concern among US allies at a time when China’s influence is growing.
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Trump’s tariff-increasing trade war with China has given additional impetus in recent years to move forward with the RCEP, which had otherwise made slow progress since negotiations began in 2012.
The deal, which is expected to be the most important deal at this year’s ASEAN summit, is likely to cement China’s position as an economic partner of Southeast Asia, Japan and Korea, and will put it in a better position to shape the trade rules of the region. .
“Uncertainty regarding the US elections raises questions about US participation in relevant meetings and may give China an opportunity to influence the narrative about US engagement with the region,” said Le Hong Hiep, a member of the ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute of Singapore.
