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WASHINGTON (BLOOMBERG) – The presidential battlefield is shrinking to fewer states, and both US President Donald Trump and Democrat Joe Biden still have paths to victory. Biden now has 238 electoral votes to Trump’s 213.
Biden’s victory in Arizona, a state that Trump won in 2016, gives him more room to breathe, as the “Blue Wall” states remain uncounted.
Even without Pennsylvania, Biden could now reach exactly 270 electoral votes, the minimum necessary to win, if he can win Michigan and Wisconsin, as well as Nevada, where he led early Wednesday (November 4).
Those states still have a significant number of votes pending from absentee voters and large urban counties that tend to vote Democratic. Election officials in both states said it would be later Wednesday before they could finish counting those votes.
The deciding factor for Biden could end up being a single electoral vote from Nebraska’s second congressional district, one of the two states dividing its votes. Trump won that district in 2016, but Biden won it on Tuesday.
Georgia and North Carolina would give Biden additional options, but Trump appears to have leads in both states. A Biden victory in Nevada, a state that Democratic contender Hillary Clinton won in 2016, would not help him gain ground against Trump.
Trump needs at least four of the following states to pass 270 electoral votes: Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. He won them all in 2016. If Biden wins two from Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Georgia, he will win.
There is a scenario in which the contest could be reduced to a single electoral vote, or even a tie. Maine also divides its votes by electoral districts, with one of its two districts still in play.
If Trump wins that vote and loses Wisconsin and North Carolina, both Biden and Trump will have 269 electoral votes. In that case, Trump would likely win the runoff vote in the House of Representatives, where each state delegation gets only one vote.
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