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NEW YORK: The coronavirus pandemic, an unprecedented number of votes cast early, the lack of consistency on how these votes will be counted, as well as ongoing legal battles, have made the outcome of the 2020 US presidential election one one of the most difficult to predict.
As Americans head to polling stations on Tuesday (November 3), the question is not just whether Republican President Donald Trump will win a second four-year term or be defeated by his Democratic rival Joe Biden, but also when will be known. the result.
READ: US Election Day Begins When Voters Decide on Trump’s Fate
The latest opinion polls show that the race is close enough in the battlefield states to shift the outcome to either side, even as Biden leads Trump in national polls.
Some of these states do not start counting early votes until after polling stations close, and some allow ballots that arrive after Election Day to be included as long as they are postmarked Nov. 3. If the presidential race depends on the results in these states, the United States could be waiting for days.
Experts have warned not to read too much about advance statements, which could be distorted by the way each state processes votes that are not cast in person on Election Day.
Here are some moments to look for Tuesday and beyond:
November 3
5 p.m. ET (2200 GMT): Edison Research will release the preliminary results of its exit polls, which are based on in-person interviews with voters on Election Day, in-person interviews at early voting centers by 3 November and telephone interviews with people who voted by mail.
The initial data will look at the sentiment and motivations of voters at the national and state levels, but not detailed percentage estimates. Results of ballot questions in individual states will be posted after the in-state voting ends.
Edison will refine and update the results of the statewide and national exit polls overnight, gathering more responses from voters and adjusting the weights to reflect turnout.
6 p.m. ET (2300-0000 GMT): Some polling stations begin to close in the Republican strongholds of Indiana and Kentucky, the first to close in the country.
7 pm ET (0000 GMT): Voting ends in Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Virginia and Vermont.
Some polls are beginning to close in Florida, but many remain open until 8 p.m.
Florida’s initial results could favor Biden due to the high volume of early voting that the state began scanning more than three weeks ago; Opinion polls suggest that more Democrats voted early, while more Republicans waited until Election Day. If there is a “blue mirage,” it will fade as more in-person ballots are counted on Tuesday.
READ: Biden leads in polls before Election Day, but battlefields are tight
7.30 pm ET (0030 GMT): Polls close in North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia.
Like Florida, initial results from North Carolina and Ohio could favor Biden because states began scanning ballots weeks before Election Day. As more ballots are tabulated, a more realistic picture of the vote will emerge.
North Carolina counts ballots that arrive through November 12 if they are postmarked November 3. Ohio accepts ballots 10 days after the election if they are postmarked November 2.
8 p.m. ET (0100 GMT): Voting ends in Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, and Washington DC.
Pennsylvania does not begin processing early votes until Election Day, and the state will accept mail-in ballots for up to three days after the election if they are postmarked Nov. 3. As a result, Pennsylvania’s initial vote count may show a mirage “for Trump until absentee votes are counted, experts say.
READ: Trump or Biden? What impact can the outcome of the US elections have in Asia?
8.30 p.m. ET (0130 GMT) – Reuters expects to release updated national results of the Edison Research exit poll, with percentage estimates of support for Biden vs. Trump.
Polls are closed in Arkansas.
9 p.m. ET (0200 GMT): Voting ends in Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.
As in Pennsylvania, early results from Michigan and Wisconsin are expected to favor Trump because ballots cannot be counted before Election Day. (Michigan allows some ballots to be opened, but they cannot be counted.)
Arizona allows ballots to be scanned 14 days before the election.
READ: In Photos: Election campaign scenes as the US elections are reduced to cable
10 p.m. ET (0300 GMT): The polls close in Iowa, Montana, Nevada and Utah.
Iowa allows ballot envelopes to be opened the Saturday before elections and tabulation to begin on Monday. Ballots postmarked November 2 may arrive until the Monday after the election.
Nevada allows ballot scanning to begin 14 days before the election and accepts ballots up to seven days after the election if they are postmarked November 3.
11 pm ET (0400 GMT): Voting ends in California, Idaho, Oregon and Washington.
12 am ET (0500 GMT): Polls close in Hawaii.
1 am ET (0600 GMT): Voting ends in Alaska.
DECEMBER 8
States have until this date, known as the “safe harbor” deadline under federal law, to resolve any disputes over their total votes and certify the winner. If a state fails to finalize its vote count by then, Congress is no longer obligated to accept its results under the Electoral College system.
DECEMBER 14TH
The members of the Electoral College cast their votes for president. Under the American system, the winner of the popular vote in each state gets the electoral votes for that state, which are distributed by population. The candidate who obtains the majority of the 538 available electoral votes, or 270, wins the presidency.
READ: Win the vote but still lose? Here’s the US Electoral College.
JANUARY 6, 2021
Congress meets at 1 pm in Washington to count electoral votes and declare the winner.
JANUARY 20, 2021
Opening Day. The winner and his running mate are sworn in as President and Vice President at the United States Capitol in Washington.
