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I was at Anfield last week to watch Liverpool win three points against Sheffield United.
That victory saw the Reds draw on points with Premier League leaders Everton, meanwhile, Chris Wilder’s team slipped to 19th place after that result contributed to their winless start to the campaign.
Despite the Blades being out of shape, they proved to be a tough unit and made Jurgen Klopp’s men work hard for victory. The visitors took the lead through what turned out to be a dubious penalty and one of the key reasons for today’s column topic.
I cover the subject in much more detail in the latest Marginal Pains newsletter, but for some time now, I have been of the opinion that a penalty is too severe a punishment for some of the offenses we see weekly in the Premier League. On Saturday at Anfield, I thought we saw the perfect example of why.
In the 10th minute, Fabinho tackled Oli McBurnie on the edge of Liverpool’s penalty area, prompting referee Mike Dean to concede a free kick.
Following a VAR review, that resulting free kick was transformed into a penalty as the offense occurred on the penalty area line. After an initial delay, the resulting penalty was converted by United’s Sander Berge.
Although Liverpool impressively managed to overcome that initial setback and secure victory, it must not be forgotten that this decision alone could have been decisive quite easily.
Let me explain why.
I often label soccer as a low scoring sport, which usually surprises me, and I get it. After all, more than half of the Premier League games last season produced three or more goals.
However, in the context of other sports such as basketball, rugby, cricket, American football, etc., our game does not usually have many scoring moments over the course of 90 minutes. As a result, goals tend to be more valuable in soccer than in some of the sports mentioned above.
Notably, only 40% of Premier League results were resolved by more than a single goal margin last season, meaning that around 60% of results were determined within a single goal margin. .
Now consider this, in almost all Expected Target (xG) models, a penalty has a value of around 0.76, which is high. In an unsophisticated way, you could argue that it tells us that three out of four penalties are scored.
Therefore, most of the time, sanctions tend to go a long way in deciding the results. With that in mind, should a debatable trip by a player standing 18 yards from goal and looking in the opposite direction result in him being awarded an unopposed shot at goal from 12 yards?
In my opinion no, because frankly it seems illogical. For example, in this case, the resulting penalty not only leads to an unopposed shot, but even if McBurnie could have turned and unleashed an effort toward goal, notice how dramatically the angle of shot changes from the location of the foul at compared to the worth it is taken from. Quite simply, as a result of the call, the possibility increases markedly from low to high quality.
Perhaps the above could have continued before the introduction of the technology. However, there appears to be a correlation between the introduction of rates such as VAR and an increase in the pitches of points awarded.
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At its current rate, the Premier League is seeing an average of five penalties awarded per week of play. The average for the past five seasons was just 2.49 per game week.
So if we see more penalties awarded, we are likely to see more matches resolved as a direct result of them.
Liverpool have already been at the end of some dubious decisions so far this season, and this felt like another example of one against. However, beyond any vested interest from Liverpool’s perspective, it feels like there is a broader discussion about the way we award penalties, and the one he had against Fabinho last weekend could act as the starting point. perfect.
It is unclear if a possible discussion could lead to a smaller penalty area, a change in the design of the penalty area or perhaps an increase in indirect free kicks; however, for the sake of the game, it would be nice to see a few different possibilities. explored for years to come.
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