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From security to commerce, who sits in the White House is very important to the region. How different will the Biden administration be from the Trump administration? Asian Insider looks at the problem.
Elections in the United States: continuity of foreign policy if Trump wins, return to conventional diplomacy if Biden succeeds
If President Donald Trump achieves an electoral victory and occupies the White House for another four years, there is little doubt that there will be political continuity, analysts say.
While reports suggest the president may change his Defense Secretary Mark Esper, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will remain in the cabinet, his loyalty burnished by his beaming presence from Jerusalem at the Republican National Convention to support his boss.
China’s hawks like economic adviser Peter Navarro will also remain in place. And the president is likely to demand more burden-sharing from the allies in exchange for troops on his territory, a problem for South Korea and Japan, or he will withdraw some of them.
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US Elections: Experts Say Beijing Is Ready To ‘Coexist’ With The US, No Matter Who Win
Whoever wins the US presidential election next week, the truth is that the relationship between Beijing and Washington has changed irrevocably and the hard-line stance toward China is likely to continue, analysts say.
Amid a trade war that never led to detente and spiraling diplomatic relations, there are also the enigmas of Hong Kong and Taiwan.
For the Chinese leadership, a victory for President Donald Trump or Joe Biden will each bring their own set of challenges, but would end the current attack on China that has dominated American politics, said Wang Huiyao, China’s Cabinet adviser and founder. of the Center for China and Globalization, a Beijing think tank.
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US elections: US ties with allies South Korea and Japan ‘not well managed’, experts say
US President Donald Trump’s greatest achievement in East Asia would be his landmark summit with Kim Jong Un in Singapore in 2018, which marked the first time that a sitting US leader met with his North Korean counterpart to resolve the nuclear problem.
Trump should receive “due credit” for the meeting, said Dr. Lee Seong-hyon of the Sejong Institute think tank. But beyond that, “it really showed an inability to understand the importance of allies to America,” Dr. Lee told The Straits Times.
Most experts agree that Trump mishandled strategic alliances with Japan and South Korea, extracted empty promises from North Korea and failed to stop China.
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Elections in the United States: No candidate meets all the requirements for Southeast Asia
It is not as clear as the day who will be better for Southeast Asia: Donald Trump or Joe Biden.
“There are pros and cons,” said researcher Lucio Pitlo III of the Asia-Pacific Pathways to Progress Foundation.
If Trump is reelected, he will likely continue his transactional and autonomous way of dealing with allies and adversaries alike, with rancor and unpredictability.
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Elections in America: Welcoming Ties Between America and India, No Matter Who’s in the Oval Office
In February, when President Donald Trump visited India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi effusively praised the US leader at a mass rally in Gujarat, the Indian prime minister’s home state.
He said the ties were “much greater and closer” and praised Trump as a leader “who thinks big.”
The camaraderie between the two men indicated the level of comfort in the relationship between the two parties, something with bipartisan support rare in the United States, where Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden is also an advocate of close ties to New Delhi.
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Trump, Biden, and South Asia through the Indo-Pacific lens
Next week’s US presidential elections are being closely watched in South Asia. Sen. Kamala Harris is certainly a draw, as she could be the first American vice president of Indian heritage if the Democrats win.
But the interest in the election result goes beyond Senator Harris’ background. The ties that bind the US and South Asia have grown in recent years, in many different ways. On one level, both Democrats and Republicans are courting the Indian diaspora in America with some intensity.
While the diaspora numbers 4.5 million, voters are said to be around two million, with small but significant numbers in some battle states expected to pick the winner in the presidential race.
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The real reasons for Pompeo’s visit to Asia
Less than a week after arriving in Jakarta, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo may become a lame chancellor, along with his boss, President Donald Trump. But President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo will not underestimate Trump’s reelection chances.
Nor will he miss the opportunity for defense cooperation between Indonesia and the United States that his defense minister, Prabowo Subianto, has gained on his recent trip to Washington.
Indonesia, as well as the entire Asean, needs a strong US military presence in the region, amid rising tensions in the region, now that China has become more assertive in its claim over a large swath of the South China Sea.
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