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HOBART: In the last 48 hours, many people inside and outside Malaysia have been puzzled by politics.
Just when everyone was shocked that Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin wanted to declare a state of emergency, a second political clash ensued when the king rejected his request.
Although the decision was phrased in polite terms, the King’s response sent a strong and unequivocal signal that politicians should put their house in order without resorting to seeking support from the palace to bolster their positions, whether through a state of emergency or the endorsement on a list of Members of Parliament who endorse them.
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More bluntly, the King’s effective message was: “Please go away and don’t bother me.”
This led directly to a meeting of the Supreme Council of the United Malays National Organization (UMNO) on Monday evening (October 26), where UMNO President Zahid Hamidi said that his party will support the Muhyiddin administration. and that the “status quo” will remain.
But this great public drama confuses several key and more transcendent elements in the critical political events of the last few days.
THE SPLIT WITHIN UMNO
The first is the bizarre incidence of the joint letter allegedly signed by former Prime Minister Najib Razak and Zahid to the king to support Anwar Ibrahim as Prime Minister that appeared last week in news reports.
The UMNO Supreme Council was not aware of the letter.
It was even more incredible given that Najib does not hold any official position at UMNO.
If such a letter supporting Anwar was real and truly reflected UMNO’s position, it should have been signed by Zahid alone.
Regardless of the authenticity of the letter, it was enough to cast doubt in people’s minds and generate discord within UMNO. The fact is, Najib’s influence in UMNO has not been affected by the guilty verdict and the other ongoing 1MDB trials.
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Many in UMNO still see Najib as the “man of ideas”. To them, he is their only strategic thinker and they look up to him, unlike Zahid who is not seen as a strategic thinker and, for the most part, is not seen as a long-term UMNO leader. Therefore, Najib remains the key player in UMNO politics.
Former Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak leaves after a meeting at the United Malaysia National Organization (UMNO) headquarters in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia on October 26, 2020. REUTERS / Lim Huey Teng
The letter also focused attention on an issue very close to the heart of UMNO: UMNO wants to get back in the driver’s seat and has been frustrated by Muhyiddin’s obstruction of its efforts.
When they helped Muhyiddin form the Perikatan Nasional (PN) government earlier this year, they thought Muhyiddin would eventually give up the leadership position.
Furthermore, UMNO, with more seats than Bersatu and with the support of PAS, could easily outperform Muhyiddin and Bersatu. Or so they thought.
MUHYIDDIN MACHIAVELLIANO
But it didn’t turn out that way because Muhyiddin turned out to be more Machiavellian. Bersatu held some of the most important and lucrative positions in the administration.
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Muhyiddin also bypassed UMNO by refusing to appoint a deputy prime minister, who would likely have gone to a UMNO politician, opting instead to appoint four high-ranking ministers.
Of the four, three are clearly in Muhyiddin’s camp: the Chief Minister of the Economy, Azmin Ali, who defected to Bersatu in March, the Chief Minister of Education and Society and the Vice President of Bersatu, Radzi Jidin, and the Chief Minister of Development. of Infrastructure, and Gabungan Parti Sarawak, head of whip. Fadillah Yusuf – with the Minister of Defense and Vice President of UMNO, Sabri Yaakob, the only one from the UMNO camp.
There are many other cases of UMNO deputies who have been sidelined in favor of Bersatu supporters.
The latest is the appointment of the Prime Minister of Sabah. UMNO wanted the job to go to Bung Moktar Radin, the head of Sabah UMNO, but the job ended up with Hajiji Noor from Bersatu.
But how UMNO gets there has been a point of contention. For some time, there is a growing faction within UMNO that is dead against Zahid and Najib.
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His main complaint against both men is that they have proven unable to “handle” Muhyiddin, not to mention the fact that they have both been embroiled in corruption charges, which has impeded their ability to lead and tarnished the reputation of UMNO.
Zahid and Najib know that they have to work together to further their interests in securing UMNO’s position in the Muhyiddin administration and finding a quiet solution to their corruption charges.
But the true reformers of UMNO think that UMNO will never regain its reputation as long as Najib and Zahid take the levers of power in UMNO.
Many, such as Science, Technology and Innovation Minister Khairy Jamaluddin, think that UMNO’s support among rural Malays is intact and that what is really needed are reforms in the party to restore the spirit of openness, win back voters and return to UMNO to its glory days.
AND ANWAR?
This is where Anwar comes in. Anwar probably saw up close the growing unhappiness in the UMNO over its marginalization within the PN coalition by Muhyiddin and saw an opportunity to bring some to its side.
It only needed a dozen UMNO deputies to defeat the Muhyiddin government. Unlike Muhyiddin, Anwar was in a position to offer a “new deal” if UMNO supported him.
It is known that the UMNO wants the DPM office and the key economic ministries. Muhyiddin would find it difficult to replace incumbents with UMNO, while Anwar can easily make initial appointments in a new government.
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But Muhyiddin turned out to be the best poker player and seems to have the upper hand, especially after the reaction from Anwar’s Pakatan Harapan coalition on the possibility that Anwar was even willing to work with Najib and Zahid. Many see this as an ultimate betrayal of Anwar “reform“promise.
Malaysian opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim speaks to the media after leaving the police headquarters in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, on Friday, October 16, 2020 (AP Photo / Vincent Thian).
The prominent leader of the Democratic Alliance Party (DAP), Tony Pua, even used the words “go to hell” in a Facebook post to describe the proposed new alliance.
If Anwar accepts, he would effectively be undoing the PH coalition, of which his PKR party and the DAP formed two key pillars.
The central problem now is trust. Can UMNO bet on Anwar more than Muhyiddin?
Anwar doesn’t even have a government. Many of UMNO’s top voters in rural areas may also reject UMNO’s support to help create an Anwar administration.
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Many are wary of what they see as Anwar’s liberal attitudes given his decades-long alliance with the DAP. These conservative Malays cannot accept the DAP in power.
So what is Anwar going to do? Withdrawal of UMNO support may end Anwar’s fourth attempt at being PM. Unless Anwar can build a coalition to reject the budget in the next parliamentary session, I don’t see a way forward for Anwar to stick with his September 23 announcement that he has the numbers to get rid of Muhyiddin in these few weeks.
LOGIC OUTSIDE THE WINDOW
In the meantime, should one take Zahid’s statement that UMNO will support Muhyiddin seriously for now? The short answer is no.
Zahid does not have the full support of UMNO. At best, he and Najib have strong support from the most influential faction in UMNO.
Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, president of the United Malaysia National Organization (UMNO). (File photo: Bernama)
Anwar, of course, will keep hitting the various factions of UMNO, hoping that one of them will be strong enough to support him, or at least try to undermine Zahid’s outspoken pronouncement that UMNO will support Muhyiddin.
If there is a common lesson from recent political movements, it is that COVID-19 has not stopped Malaysian political elites from playing the “who controls Putrajaya” game.
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Those who think this was settled in March, when he became Prime Minister after another political saga, will really need to re-evaluate their assumptions about Malaysian politics.
Malaysian politics have never been based on rational actions or the best for the country. It has always been driven by personal interests and a hint of Malay Supremacy of Islam (Malay Islamic Supremacy).
The process is mostly illogical from a system point of view.
Professor James Chin is Professor of Asian Studies at the University of Tasmania and a Senior Fellow at the Jeffrey Cheah Institute in Southeast Asia.
