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WASHINGTON – Early voting is reported to be setting records with just two weeks left for the presidential election, pointing to enthusiasm at the Democratic Party base, posing a danger to the re-election bid of US President Donald Trump. .
Take the state of Georgia, in the southern United States, for example. As of noon on Sunday (October 18), 1,451,131 voters had already cast their votes, an increase of 152 percent over the same point in 2016. Voting for absentee ballots has skyrocketed 648 percent from 2016 .
“Early voting records are being broken every day,” the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported Sunday.
Various analyzes show that more than six times more Democrats have cast their votes than at the same time in 2016.
Nationally, 28 million have voted and African Americans, traditionally a significant part of the Democratic base, are a large part of that number.
In North Carolina, which began early voting last Thursday, black voters accounted for more than 30 percent of turnout on day one, well above their overall 23 percent turnout in 2016, the Washington Post reported.
In Georgia, black voters accounted for about 32 percent of the mail-in and in-person votes cast last Thursday, also surpassing their overall voter turnout in 2016.
African-American Democratic pollster Cornell Belcher told the Washington Post: “There is no group of Americans who is more committed to this democratic experiment, historically, than the black person in the United States of America. Black people are literally voting as if their lives depend on it. “
But no one rules out President Trump.
Digging deeper into independent survey data shows that it has made progress among some groups, such as younger African Americans, college-educated Hispanics, and college-educated whites.
Republicans prefer to vote in person. Trump’s support base may be limited, but he is fanatically loyal, and the Midwest states that brought him to the White House with a narrow margin of victory that allowed him to win the Electoral College and lose the popular vote in 2016 will vote. mostly in favor. person on November 3.
The president has also been questioning the integrity of the electoral process itself, particularly the mail-in ballots, and has been urging voters to go to the polls in person. Therefore, it is less imperative that your supporters vote early.
“I can’t help but look at this data through the lens of Trump telling Republicans so consistently that voting by mail is a scam,” Josh Mendelsohn, CEO of Michael Bloomberg’s data firm Hawkfish, told Axios. “That mistrust is confirmed in these data.”
Certainly, Trump is 10.5 points behind challenger Joe Biden nationally and 7-7.5 points behind in the tipped states, according to statistician Nate Silver, founder of the Five Thirty Eight website that tracks data from the polls.
“Trump’s chances are pretty low and could decrease,” Silver tweeted Sunday. But he added: “Don’t assume the race is in the bag for Biden.”
“We think our model is interpreting the polls and other tests correctly. But (the president’s chances) are not zero.”
Trump still has a 12 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, according to a model from Sunday afternoon’s Five Thirty Eight.
Separately, the running Electoral College estimates from the Cook Political Report project that Democrats will win 290 electoral votes in the “Strong, Likely and Lean” categories.
The magic number that represents the majority in the Electoral College is 270.
In 2016, Trump won 304 in what was seen as one of the biggest political upheavals in modern history.
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