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WELLINGTON: Jacinda Ardern’s landslide election victory gives her a mandate for the transformative change she has been promising New Zealand for three years, but the COVID-19 pandemic may limit what she can actually do.
The prime minister’s iconic achievement in nearly eliminating the novel coronavirus from the Pacific island nation through strict blockades propelled her to victory on Saturday. But this approach may also hamper the recovery New Zealanders hope and the progressive policies Ardern advocates.
The general election was “tectonic,” and with this mandate, Ardern “must deliver,” said Richard Shaw, a professor of politics at Massey University.
READ: New Zealand’s Jacinda Ardern: An electoral victory forged in crisis
Early on Sunday (October 18), hours after achieving the biggest victory in half a century for his center-left Labor Party, Ardern was grappling with the pandemic again when a new infection emerged, ending a two-week coronavirus-free run. . .
New Zealand had been free of community cases for more than 100 days until new infections emerged in Auckland in August.
The new case is unlikely to spread any further, health officials said, but highlighted the risk facing the nation of 5 million as it dedicates its efforts to keeping the pandemic off its shores.
ECONOMIC RESTRICTIONS
Ardern has allocated NZ $ 62 billion (US $ 41 billion) to the recovery from COVID-19 this year, most of it in wage subsidies to avoid massive job losses. He implemented business loans and rent freezes, and lowered some tax requirements.
But without plans for major tax reform and reducing revenue from tourism and immigration, two of New Zealand’s biggest moneymakers, there are questions about how the government can achieve its social and economic goals.
“There is not a lot of money available outside of the COVID-19 response,” said Brad Olsen, senior economist at Wellington-based economic consultancy Infometrics.
“So you wonder what issues should be prioritized and how they can bring about transformational change while increasing the response to COVID-19,” he said.
READ: New Zealand’s Ardern to form government within 3 weeks of historic election victory
With a crown net debt forecast of NZ $ 201 billion (US $ 133 billion), or 55 percent of gross domestic product by 2024, compared to less than 20 percent before the pandemic, the options Ardern’s loan portfolio is shrinking.
New Zealand governments of all types have traditionally tried to keep debt below 20 percent of GDP.
The 40-year-old Ardern, who was lagging in opinion polls until February, saw Labor support skyrocket as New Zealanders rallied behind his “go hard, go early” approach to COVID-19.
But their lockdowns crippled the tourism-focused economy and hampered their efforts to address child poverty, homelessness, inequality and climate change. Unemployment is expected to double to around 8 percent in the next two years.
PROMISE AND CONCERN
Voters don’t want the government to cut spending, Olsen said.
Ardern wants to build affordable housing, raise minimum wages, and create thousands of jobs in environmentally friendly projects.
On issues such as child poverty and homelessness, where New Zealand is one of the worst performing countries among developed countries, Ardern has launched schemes such as free school lunches and support for the purchase of first homes.
She argued that it was impossible to meet these goals in her first three-year term, and asked voters for a full term to bring about meaningful change.
“After this result we have a mandate to accelerate our response and our recovery, and tomorrow we begin,” he promised voters Saturday night.
Ardern’s critics have questioned his ability to tackle the economic crisis.
“I am very concerned about my country,” National Party opposition leader Judith Collins said Sunday, vowing to continue to pressure Ardern on economic issues.
Collins had argued that the center-right National was in a better position to lead New Zealand through this financial crisis.
READ: Prime Minister Lee congratulates New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern on election victory
Ardern’s greatest success has been bringing New Zealanders closer with his kind of compassionate leadership at a time of profound uncertainty, in contrast to political leaders around the world who were polarized and divided.
She struck a similar tone with supporters after the vote, saying that in an increasingly polarized world, New Zealand was showing that it was united.
“Elections are not always good for bringing people together, but they also don’t need to separate each other,” he said.
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