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The forecast from a year ago was that Asia-Pacific would continue to benefit from the aviation boom.
Hiring was in full swing, with some airlines offering attractive salaries and benefits to attract pilots.
Aircraft maker Boeing projected that the region would need an additional 266,000 pilots over the next 20 years.
Then the Covid-19 pandemic arrived.
Airlines grounded their planes and pilots are now confined to their homes.
The global aviation industry has shed more than 350,000 jobs in the past six months, and there is little sign that the industry will return to previous heights anytime soon.
The situation looks set to be even more bleak. The International Air Transport Association (Iata) has forecast that travel demand will not return to last year’s levels until 2024. The Air Transport Action Group, a coalition of industry experts, predicts 46 million jobs related to aviation at risk globally.
Iata said Asia-Pacific airlines would lose $ 29 billion (Singaporean $ 39 billion) this year, and that August traffic would plunge 95.9 percent compared to the previous year.
“Asia-Pacific was the first region exposed to weakness from the disease outbreak, and its losses will be greater compared to other regions, as the recovery in current demand does not come with profitability,” Iata said in its report from June.
Singapore’s Transport Minister Ong Ye Kung has said that it will take at least two years for the global aviation industry to recover from the pandemic.
“When a vaccine is widely available around the world and people gain the confidence to travel again and visit other countries, then aviation will be back on its feet, almost entirely,” he noted in a recent interview with Bloomberg Television.
“I can’t guess how long that will take; I’d say at least a couple of years.”
Deep job cuts
Covid-19 has caused massive loss of jobs in the aviation industry in Asia. Pilots and ground crews who are fortunate enough to continue working are on leave or face big pay cuts.
A Filipino pilot for a national boutique airline said his flying hours were cut to just 20 hours a month, from up to 90 hours earlier. He no longer receives a basic salary and his income has been reduced by 75 percent.
The pilot, who did not want to be named, did not disclose his salary, but pilots in the Philippines typically earn around 200,000 pesos (S $ 5,580) a month.
Your pay now depends on how many hours you are on the air. “But I would be lucky if I can get 20 hours (in a month),” he said, revealing that he has had to cut back on his expenses and dip into his savings to make ends meet.
In India, the sector has cut more than 18,000 jobs in the past four months, according to the civil aviation ministry.
Many of those who still have jobs are grateful.
“There are no other options, no one can protest or stand up because there is no work. Everyone is accepting the situation and happy to continue having a job,” said an Indian pilot who did not want to be named.
“So even though I’ve had a 40 percent pay cut, I’m better off than others who aren’t getting paid at all.”
A pilot in India earns between Rs 250,000 (Singapore $ 4,625) and Rs 450,000 per month, depending on seniority.
The same is true in Japan, where All Nippon Airways (ANA) has put some 43,500 employees on leave, while its subsidiary Air Japan laid off its 200 contracted pilots (more than 95 percent of whom were not Japanese).
Those laid off received severance pay totaling two to three months of their salaries, said the general secretary of the Japan Airline Pilots Association, Yuji Ushikusa.
In South Korea, the national airline Korean Air placed 390 foreign pilots on unpaid leave from April to July and, at the same time, forced more than 70 percent of its workforce of 20,000 people, including some 3,000 pilots, to take leave for six months, starting April 16.
Asiana Airlines, South Korea’s second-largest airline, cut pilots’ salaries in half and put 120 foreign pilots on unpaid leave from March. It also put its 10,500 employees on leave without pay for 15 days a month, starting in April.
The financially troubled budget airline Eastar Jet announced that it would lay off 640 employees (52.6 percent of its workforce) in the middle of this month, keeping just enough staff to operate six planes. In April, he said 750 jobs would be cut.
Most of South Korea’s airlines were able to avoid further job losses thanks to the government job retention subsidy scheme.
The initiative has not been able to help the Eastar pilots, with one of them saying he was notified of his dismissal via email. He added that he did not receive any downsizing benefits or severance package to which he was entitled.
The 35-year-old, who worked for the airline for three years, said his severance pay was nearly 300 million won (S $ 357,000) but “the company was unable to pay because it had no money.”
He is now studying for an air transport pilot license, but finds it difficult to retain even his current pilot qualification as Eastar has closed its flight simulators.
Aviation regulations require pilots to perform at least three takeoffs and landings in 90 days, either in flight simulators or in airplanes.
They are also evaluated every six months on emergency procedures on a simulator and on an airplane once a year.
Still, the South Korean pilot, who did not want to be identified, said: “I cannot imagine doing another job because it has been my dream and I studied aviation all my university life.”
Like all airlines, Hong Kong’s flagship carrier Cathay Pacific is expected to announce job cuts after reporting a net loss of nearly HK $ 10 billion (S $ 1.75 billion) in mid-August, to despite the government spending HK $ 39 billion to support it.
The airline has said it will not apply for more government employment subsidies.
The Sunday Times understands that Cathay Pacific staff, from office workers to aircrew to pilots, are anxious while waiting for management decisions.
One butler, who declined to be named, said: “I was on hold but that didn’t work out, so now I’m waiting to see if I still have a job.” When asked about his backup plans, he added: “Honestly, there are no plans yet. Too stressed out to think (about that now).”
Domestic life line
With international travel still limited due to border closures and with many countries requiring arrivals to be quarantined for 14 days, airlines are turning to domestic demand.
Some Chinese airlines are offering “all-you-can-fly” promotions for a limited period, while South Korea’s low-cost airlines such as Jin Air have launched new routes in the country.
Chinese airlines have seen a rebound, with more than 90 percent capacity utilization on planes since the pandemic. Most of it is driven by domestic traffic as the country reopens interprovincial travel.
In August, Chinese airlines flew a total of 45.5 million passengers, reaching about 75 percent of passenger flow for the same period last year, according to the Civil Aviation Administration of China.
The frequency of the flights was 105 percent in August year-over-year, official data showed.
China’s Golden Week holiday two weeks ago also helped air travel rebound as pent-up demand was met.
Things are also looking up for India’s domestic market after the government gradually eased a strict lockdown, allowing domestic flights to resume in May, albeit capped at 60 percent from the days before Covid-19.
In South Korea, some airlines have launched more local routes to meet demand. A total of 862,697 people flew domestically during the holiday from September 30 to October 2 in Chuseok (Korean Thanksgiving Day), according to Korea Airports Corp, despite a government advisory telling people that stay home to help contain the spread of Covid-19.
Japanese airlines were also doing big business from September 19-22, with the country marking “Silver Week,” a series of back-to-back holidays during which tourist attractions across the country are often crowded.
ANA had to operate additional flights over the four-day weekend, during which it sold 290,000 seats. Seats were more than 90 percent filled on September 19 and 22, the first and last day of the holiday stretch, with 90,000 seats sold on September 22 alone.
This was the highest number since February 28, before the worst of Covid-19 hit Japan and flights began to be canceled.
Rival Japan Airlines sold an average of 72,000 seats per day over the four-day weekend.
Kotaro Kuzawa, ANA’s head of passenger services, told broadcaster NHK: “This is the first time it has been so congested since the Covid-19 crisis.”
The extension of a Go To Travel campaign to cover travel to and from Tokyo that began on October 1 has also led to an increase in bookings.
Charge to the rescue?
Limited international passenger flights have seen airlines turn to cargo transportation, which has proven to be a lifesaver for many.
Images of passenger planes filled with boxes of items fastened to seats have gone viral on social media.
“It is the bright spot for the industry because it is the only party that is operating and making revenue at any scale,” Iata CEO Alexandre de Juniac told reporters in April.
Under normal circumstances, about 60 percent of air cargo globally is carried in the hold of passenger flights. But some airlines like Korean Air have used overhead compartments, installed cargo seat bags on planes, and even removed cabin seats to increase utilization rates, The Korea Herald reported.
The decision to switch to cargo resulted in both Korean Air and Asiana Airlines reporting an operating profit of 148.5 billion won. Asiana’s number exceeded 100 billion won.
Indonesia’s Lion Air is even transporting basic necessities like non-perishable food through the sprawling archipelago, Bloomberg reported.
“Canned foods, things that you would normally buy on your grocery trip, are transported by air because it is a more efficient way to deliver them across the country,” said managing director Daniel Putut.
“With the number of passengers falling drastically, we have to find other means of income.”
But some analysts believe the cargo boom will be only temporary.
“The global economy is expected to go into recession and therefore will affect the freight business,” Shukor Yusof, director of aviation consultancy Endau Analytics, told the Sunday Times.
“Airlines are generally in a very bad situation now. It is likely to last 12 to 18 months. Maybe longer. The forecast is that this will get worse in 2021, before it slowly recovers.”
• Additional information from Chang May Choon in Seoul, Walter Sim in Tokyo, Elizabeth Law in Beijing, Nadirah H. Rodzi in Kuala Lumpur, Raul Dancel in Manila, Claire Huang in Hong Kong and Nirmala Ganapathy in New Delhi.
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