[ad_1]
CANBERRA: In 2009 China was blamed for destroying the Copenhagen conference on climate change, leaving the world without a successor to the Kyoto Protocol.
In 2015, together with France and the United States, their leadership helped make the Paris Agreement a reality.
And in 2020, China is the first major emitter of greenhouse gases to commit to a carbon neutrality target this century, by 2060, with emissions peaking in 2030.
READ: China’s carbon neutral promise could slow global warming by 0.3 degrees Celsius: researchers
Comments on President Xi Jinping’s announcement to the United Nations General Assembly in late September 2020 have been almost uniformly optimistic.
He has been hailed for keeping the dream of 1.5 degrees Celsius alive, geopolitically surpassing the United States of Donald Trump and cutting 0.2 to 0.3 degrees Celsius of warming from our future.
While it is an exciting and hopeful development, it is also seriously inappropriate. A dose of climate realism is required.
LISTEN: The policy and the way forward for international cooperation on climate mitigation | Ep 7
HARD TRUTHS BEHIND CHINA’S CLIMATE AMBITIONS
If China’s ambition were equaled by the rest of the world, the Earth could still experience a catastrophic level of global warming by 2100, around 3 degrees Celsius.
And if business continues as usual, we can still hit the unthinkable and truly devastating 4 to 5 degrees Celsius warming that is our current trajectory.
Effect of drought in Thailand. (Photo: Jack Board)
This situation contradicts the goal of the Paris agreement to keep global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius, but it is also fully consistent with its voluntary approach.
This is why a number of important new initiatives are emerging – a Carbon Elimination Treaty, a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty (NTP), and a Coalition on Managed Decay – that deserve further publicity and consideration.
Xi’s announcement comes as models suggest that at worst, there are zero and at best six to eight years of current greenhouse emissions left before overheating is inevitable. 1.5 degrees Celsius.
READ: Comment: Living in the tropics under climate change will be challenging
READ: Comment: Air Conditioning: The Unspoken Energy Eater in Singapore
THE NEED TO RUN AGAINST THE CLOCK
In its 2019 report on climate impacts of 1.5 degrees Celsius, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recommended that nations reduce all greenhouse emissions by 45 percent by 2030 and reach net zero around 2050. .
China intends to peak emissions by 2030 and only reach carbon neutrality (which does not include deforestation and agriculture) by 2060.
However, leading climate scientists are questioning the IPCC analysis and urging a faster timetable.
READ: Explainer: What is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change?
A 2018 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS) paper expresses concern that climate modeling should take more note of the non-linear interaction between the climate system and sources such as methane and nitrous oxide.
As global warming approaches 2 degrees Celsius, the concern is that feedbacks such as ice loss, the dieback of the Amazon rainforest, and melting of permafrost will trigger an uncontrollable slide into a greenhouse land scenario.
FILE PHOTO: Smoke from a fire in an area of the Amazon rainforest near Porto Velho, Rondonia state, Brazil, September 10, 2019. REUTERS / Bruno Kelly
One of its authors, Will Steffen of the Australian National University, argues that net zero should be reached in the early 2040s, not 2050.
This analysis makes the 1.5 degree Celsius railing extremely important.
Assumptions that the Paris Agreement can be met through emission pathways leading to 2 degrees Celsius of global warming are wildly irresponsible.
READ: Comment: Why Singapore’s New ‘Absolute’ Climate Mitigation Goals Could Be a Game Changer
READ: Comment: Achieving net zero emissions will be ‘very challenging’. But watch Singapore try anyway
THE CHALLENGING POLICY OF GLOBAL CLIMATE ACTION
The landscape of global climate action is now a mix of hope and chaos.
The United States is pulling out of the Paris Agreement and, along with Japan and Russia, all among the world’s largest emitters, will not strengthen their Paris commitments.
READ: Comment: Why we need the opposite of a carbon tax to reduce emissions
The European Commission has proposed that Europe increase its reductions from 40 percent by 2030 to 55 percent, but this is not yet a policy of the European Union.
China is effectively targeting net zero sometime in the 2070s.
India’s commitments are heading towards a 2 degree Celsius world, and there is no sign of it moving from coal.
FILE PHOTO: The smokestacks of a coal-fired power plant are pictured in New Delhi, India, July 20, 2017. Picture taken July 20, 2017. REUTERS / Adnan Abidi / File Photo
To overcome the Paris stalemate, creative new proposals are being put forward to use global “supply-side” deals to accelerate cuts.
The Fossil Fuel NPT would be a comprehensive new treaty that achieves a phased phase out of fossil fuel production and use in all sectors and countries.
The Carbon Depletion Treaty builds on the Montreal Protocol on the ozone layer and proposes to use the General Assembly to negotiate, as the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons did in 2017.
It would empower climate-vulnerable states to lead and create a powerful new rule against fossil fuels.
READ: Comment: Singapore’s dreams of becoming a solar-powered nation are almost here
Most interesting is Democratic vice presidential candidate Kamala Harris’ climate plan, which proposes a “coalition on managed decline” in which a Biden administration would convene a 2021 top emitters summit to begin planning an elimination. fossil fuel cooperative consistent with the 1.5 degrees Celsius railing.
While it’s unclear whether a Biden administration will embrace the policy, it exemplifies the kind of high-level cooperation that will be crucial to solving the climate crisis.
READ: Comment: The choice of US voters concerned about the economic outlook could not be clearer
SPECULATION ON THE MOMENTUM OF CHANGE
So what does the announcement from China mean?
When China speaks, it is always tempting to speculate on geopolitics.
In the future, serious tensions may arise as states are slowing down in reducing emissions, but for now the blame among the major powers can be shared equally.
The real impact of climate change on security is already happening and comes in the form of increasingly destructive fires and cyclones, rising sea levels and floods, and the drought and food insecurity that helped spark conflict in Syria and Sudan.
A firefighter passes flames while fighting the Glass Fire at a Calistoga, Calif., Vineyard Thursday, Oct. 1, 2020 (Photo: AP / Noah Berger)
And while we are rightly appalled that the death toll from COVID-19 has surpassed one million, each year six million lives are lost to ambient air pollution, also known as PM2.5 pollution, that results from burning fuel. fossil fuels.
We can hope that Xi’s announcement will help spark new global momentum, but that must be done actively.
In climatic terms, the biggest geopolitical event of this century will occur in another country on November 3.
Anthony Burke is Professor of International Relations at UNSW, Canberra, and coordinator of its Research Group on Environment and Governance. This comment first appeared on the Lowy Institute blog, The Interpreter.
