Character Matters More Than Credentials For Younger Voters: Post GE2020 Survey

SINGAPORE – The character of the candidates, and whether they were viewed as honest and impartial, mattered more to younger voters than their academic or work credentials, according to one of the key findings of a comprehensive survey of the 2020 General results. Election (GE2020).

“What surprised me is that it seems that credentials and contribution seem to matter a lot less now, compared to character. So when candidates do come forward, if they talk too much about their credentials, it might not really help, ”said Associate Professor Tan Ern Ser from the National University of Singapore, one of four members of the research team who he directed the Post-Election Poll Institute (IPS).

Professor Tan was referring to the answers to a series of questions about a candidate’s traits, including “honesty” and being a “fair person,” and what quality mattered most to respondents. Being a ‘fair person’ saw the largest 9% increase in the ‘very important’ rating compared to 2015, among all traits, especially in the 21-29 age group and among diploma holders.

During an IPS online forum to discuss the survey results on Thursday (October 2), Dr. Lam Peng Er of the East Asian Institute predicted that the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) will likely remain the “perennial party in power “for the foreseeable future. .

However, with a younger, better educated, and more demanding electorate that has both material (job security, housing, transportation, and more) and post-material (values, citizens with a greater voice in parliament, justice, and more) concerns, the PAP having to deal with a lower share of votes and fewer seats in Parliament, possibly even losing its two-thirds majority.

“The opposition is here to stay … it is not inconceivable that the Workers’ Party (WP) will win another SMC (Single Member Constituency) or GRC (Group Representation Constituency) in the next general election,” Dr. Lam said.

In the July 10 General Election (GE), the WP won an unprecedented 10 seats in Parliament, including a surprising victory in the newly created Sengkang GRC. The PAP vote share also fell dramatically from 69.9 percent in 2015 to 61.24 percent.

Key findings from the survey

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Known as POPS (10), the survey took the opinions of 4,027 Singaporeans aged 21 and over via landlines, mobile phones and the Internet. It was the fourth time that IPS conducted a post-election poll. Besides Prof Tan, the other team members are Dr. Gillian Koh, Dr. Teo Kay Key and Damien Huang, all from IPS.

While the main topic for respondents remained “the need for good and efficient government”, “the government’s handling of the COVID situation” was also ranked as one of the top priorities. Meanwhile, compared to 2015, there were three key issues where the proportion of respondents who chose the ‘very important’ rating increased markedly:

• Employment situation, particularly prominent for people aged 30 to 54 and those whose monthly family income ranged between $ 2,000 and $ 6,999, Malays and Indians and men

• Cost of living, particularly relevant for those in the same age group and income range as the first topic, as well as for those in the intermediate and working occupational classes and for graduates

• Need for different points of view, particularly outstanding for those 21 to 29 years old, those with a monthly family income of $ 5,000 to $ 6,999, PMET and holders of university degrees and diplomas.

This suggests that the issue of sustainable livelihoods amid the pandemic affected the vote of respondents of working age and in households with low to middle income, or those most vulnerable to threats to job and income security. . Political ideals were also important, particularly for the young and better educated.

“Most Singaporeans are, to varying degrees, socially and politically conservative by nature,” said independent academic Dr. Derek da Cunha on the online forum. He stated that only the WP, being the only moderate alternative to the PAP that is not too conflictive in nature, will be able to take a seat from the PAP.

Dismissing the staunch anti-PAP elements that are infected with the “hoax virus” and inhabit the “echo chambers” of social media, he noted, “The Workers Party does not have a radical agenda, and it is also right.” .

The story continues

Party credibility

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Respondents were also asked to indicate, from “strongly disagree” to “strongly agree”, whether each of the six major political parties in GE2020 was “credible.” Based on the number of votes they received overall, they were: PAP, WP, Singapore Progress Party, Singapore Democratic Party, National Solidarity Party, and Peoples Voice.

In the ‘agree’ category, the PAP scored 57 percent, compared to 63 percent in 2015. In particular, there was a 13 percentage point drop in the combined responses of ‘strongly agree’ / ‘agree ‘in the 40-49 age group. There were similar drops among those in the low to middle income bands ($ 0 to $ 4,999 monthly income), 1-3 bedroom HDB residents, and men.

Overall, there was a drop in the perceived credibility of the PAP across all age groups.

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In comparison, the WP scored 20% in the “strongly agree” category, compared to 8% in 2015. There were increases in “strongly agree” / “agree” responses in the age group of 30 to 34 years and among the elderly. while there were also increases among PMETs, as well as those with only postsecondary educational qualifications, HDB 1 to 3 bedroom apartment dwellers, and women.

Overall, compared to five years ago, the WP saw an increase in its perceived credibility, particularly among high-level voters. However, the PAP had the highest average score and the highest percentage of those who strongly agreed that it was a credible party.

The results mean that there were proportions of respondents at both ends of the socioeconomic spectrum who found the WP credible, while the issue of livelihoods influenced support for both the PAP and the WP.

Political pluralism

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Respondents were also classified into three categories: conservatives, or those who did not agree that political pluralism has value and the need for any change in the electoral system; Pluralist, or those who agreed that there is value in political pluralism and the need for a change in the electoral system for that to happen; and Swing, or those with an eclectic mix of points of view.

Compared to 2015, the proportion of respondents in the Swing category increased from 37.8% to 59.2%, while the Pluralist category also increased from 18% to 22.4%. The conservative category saw a sharp drop from 44.3 to 18.5 percent.

The highest proportion of pluralists was among respondents from the youngest age group and the highest socioeconomic groups. But the pluralistic category also saw increases among residents in the low household income band ($ 0 to $ 1,999) and those with only post-secondary qualifications.

Thus, there were two effects: the consistent tendency of those in the upper socioeconomic class to support political pluralism, and the effects of basic issues at the other end of the socioeconomic spectrum were such that those respondents felt there was a need for political opposition in Parliament.

Professor Tan noted that while younger voters favored pluralistic views, many in the 40-49 age group, the sandwich generation, also shared these views. “(They are) the people who have to take care of the elderly and take care of the younger generations. So during this time of COVID, they are the ones in danger of losing their jobs … maybe easily replaceable. So, I think that’s where they feel a sense of job and income insecurity. And that may have affected the way they voted in this election. “

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