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SINGAPORE – The Institute for Political Studies (IPS) on Thursday (October 1) shared the results of a poll it had conducted after the July 10 general elections.
The expert group surveyed a sample of 4,027 Singaporeans of voting age using three methods: random calls via landlines, mobile phones, and an online survey. The results were weighted to be representative of the national population in terms of age, sex, and race.
IPS had conducted similar polls after the 2006, 2011 and 2015 general elections.
These are the key findings from the latest survey.
1. Drop in perceived credibility of PAP
The Popular Action Party (PAP) is still considered the most credible political party, but the proportion of respondents who believed this to be so fell from 93 percent in the 2015 general elections to 86 percent in GE2020.
While the percentage who fully agreed that the PAP is credible was similar to 2015, those who said they simply agreed with the statement dropped from 63% in 2015 to 57% in 2020. This is a return to levels prior to 2015.
The party’s perceived credibility fell across all age groups, with a drop in positive ratings most pronounced among those with a high school education and diploma, the low-income, those living in one- to three-bedroom Housing Board flats and the men.
In contrast, the perceived credibility of the Workers’ Party (WP) increased among respondents of all age groups.
It ranked second, followed by the Singapore Progress Party, the Singapore Democratic Party, the National Solidarity Party, and Peoples Voice.
The uptick in WP’s perceived credibility was led by professionals, managers, executives, and technicians (PMET), those with post-secondary qualifications (ITE and junior college), and those living in one- to three-bedroom flats.
IPS noted that both PMETs and those in the lowest housing category found the WP credible, meaning it won supporters from both ends of the socioeconomic spectrum.
2. Increased importance of employment, the cost of living and the need for political diversity
The top three issues that saw the steepest rise in “very important” ratings compared to 2015 were the employment situation, cost of living and the need for different views in Parliament.
Jobs and the cost of living were a central issue for people ages 30 to 54 in low- to middle-income households; while having greater political diversity more attracted younger voters aged 21-29 who hold PMET positions.
The two themes are not mutually exclusive, the researchers said.
Respondents in the low-to-middle income band felt that the employment situation that emerged from the pandemic challenged their sense of security.
So some may have responded that they support checks and balances and diverse voices in Parliament because of these basic issues and not for the sake of political diversity itself.
3. The need for efficient government remains the main problem
As in previous polls, respondents cited the “need for good and efficient government” as the top priority on a list of 15 issues.
This has been a major concern since 2006, especially among PMETs and those with degrees or college education.
A new item on this year’s list that was among the top three issues was the government’s handling of the Covid-19 pandemic. Nearly nine out of 10 voters polled said it was “important” or “very important.”
Respondents who felt this topic was particularly important included those born before 1965, those from low- and lower-middle-income groups, and those with a high school education or less.
4. Less conservative, more pluralistic and undecided voters
Compared to 2015, the proportion of people classified as politically conservative fell by more than half, from 44.3% to 18.5%.
They are defined in the survey as those who do not agree with the need for a change in the electoral system, checks and balances, or different voices in Parliament.
Those in the swing category, defined as having mixed opinions compared to pluralists and conservatives, rose sharply by more than 20 percentage points, to 59.2 percent.
Pluralists, or those who want greater political diversity, rose slightly by about 4 percentage points to 22.4 percent.
While pluralists tend to be younger and wealthier, this year there was an increase in their share between lower-income households earning less than $ 2,000 a month and those with only postsecondary non-tertiary qualifications.
IPS said this points to two effects occurring.
First, the constant tendency of those in the highest socioeconomic class to support political pluralism; and second, the effects of core issues at the other end of the socio-economic spectrum, so that respondents felt that political opposition in Parliament was necessary.
The IPS research team emphasized that the poll results reflect the political concerns and preferences of the respondents, but do not say exactly which party they voted for in GE2020.
5. The Internet surpasses television as the most important platform for shaping voting decisions
The verdict is in: GE2020 was Singapore’s first internet choice.
The Internet was the most important communication platform that shaped Singaporeans’ voting decisions this year.
Next, in descending order of importance, are coverage from local television, newspapers, e-rallies, and friends, as well as family and colleagues.
In contrast, television coverage was the most influential communication channel in GE2015, followed in second place by print newspapers and the Internet.
For voters born after 1965, known as post-independence voters, the Internet played a particularly important role in shaping their decisions. He did the same with PMETs.
The younger the respondent and the higher the occupational class, the more likely the Internet was important to him or her, the researchers said.
Those who say the internet was important in providing material that shaped their vote ranked Facebook as their number one source, just as they did in 2015.
It was followed by the various platforms of CNA, YouTube, Instagram, and The Straits Times website.
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