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WASHINGTON – United States President Donald Trump and Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden clashed in the first presidential debate on Tuesday (September 29), just over a month since Election Day on November 3.
There will be two more debates between Trump and Biden and one between vice-presidential nominees Mike Pence and Kamala Harris.
Here are five takeaways from the debate in Cleveland, Ohio.
1. EXTREME DESPAIR OF THE DEBATE
Tuesday night was less of a debate and more of a show. Trump, 74, made most of the interruptions, speaking frequently about Biden, 77, and interrupting him with short, pointed comments and questions.
Biden, who often could barely get a word out, would occasionally lose his balance. “Do you want to shut up, man?” he said at one point, adding, “This is so un-presidential … keep barking, man.”
This would have been different for different audiences. Trump supporters are likely to view him as strong and Biden as a weak opponent who needed the moderator to defend him, while detractors of the president will call him a bully.
It remains to be seen whether Trump’s combative approach will win him over to undecided voters and suburban white women, whom he needs to win over to get closer to Biden’s leadership.
Biden’s strategy of addressing the camera at times, directly asking the audience if his life experience contradicted the miraculous pandemic recovery extolled by Trump, was very much in line with his campaign style and popular charm.
Biden was also targeted in the Democratic primary, but recovered, suggesting that personal attacks don’t work as well against him.
Still, the barrage of interruptions meant that the two men could hardly engage each other on substantive points, or delve into political discussions.
This meant that Trump could quickly go through uncomfortable moments and potential roadblocks. The debate swiftly turned over his administration’s handling of the pandemic, an area in which he has consistently received low scores in national polls, and an explosive New York Times report on his tax returns.
Biden was also unable to effectively rebut Trump when he made exaggerated claims, nor was he adamant about failing to condemn white supremacists or their lack of a comprehensive health plan.
2. THE SPECTRUM OF SOCIALISM
At the same time, Trump tried to paint Biden as a socialist, while trying to pit the left wing of the Democratic Party against Biden for not being leftist enough for them.
“They’re going to dominate you, Joe, you know that,” Trump said near the beginning of the debate, adding: “Your party wants to go socialist.”
“I am the Democratic Party right now,” Biden said.
The former vice president responded in a consistently restrained manner, making Trump’s line of attack of socialism less effective.
Over the course of the debate, Biden explicitly said that he was against withdrawing funds from law enforcement and did not support the Green New Deal.
While these aren’t positions that make you want to be on the left wing of the party, they are likely to reassure undecided voters. They are also unlikely to irrevocably alienate left-wing Democrats, who are staunchly opposed to Trump and have been campaigning for Biden.
3. PERSONAL ISOLATIONS SIGNAL MORE UGLY AHEAD
The debate sometimes boiled down to name calling and name calling.
Biden called Trump a clown, a fool and a liar, told him to shut up, and called him the worst president America has ever had.
Trump mocked Biden’s intellect and said he graduated lowest in his class. “Never use the word smart with me,” Trump said. “There is nothing smart about you, Joe.”
The debate heated up especially when Trump went after Biden’s son Hunter, whom he accused without evidence of corrupt deals. He also referenced young Biden’s drug abuse and said he was “dishonorably discharged” from the military.
Biden, who had been praising his late son Beau’s military service in Iraq, said: “That just isn’t true.”
“He’s fixed it, he’s worked on it,” Biden said of Hunter’s drug problem. “I’m proud of him. I’m proud of my son.”
4. TRUMP DOUBLES FOR CLAIMS WITHOUT ELECTORAL FRAUD FUND
When asked about the integrity of the election, Trump doubled down on his unsubstantiated claims of voter fraud, calling the election rigged and saying, “This is not going to end well.”
He said he was urging his supporters to “go to the polls and watch very carefully,” in contrast to Biden’s promise to ask his supporters to remain calm on election night. Biden also promised not to call for victory until the results have been independently certified.
Trump’s comments increase the possibility of unrest should he lose, and his supporters may not be willing to accept the election and its outcome as legitimate.
5. MOST PEOPLE HAVE ALREADY DECIDED
The debate was also unlikely to bridge the gap between Trump and Biden. Voting is already underway in many states and most people say it is determined.
Historically, polls don’t change that much at this stage either. According to a FiveThirtyEight analysis of polls from 1976 to 2012, the difference between poll results just after the first debate and at the end of the campaign averaged 2.2%.
A Morning Consult poll released Tuesday morning found that 86 percent of all voters say their position in the 2020 race was immobile, and only 14 percent said they might change their mind.
Party voters were similarly established in their ways, with 9 percent of Democrats and 11 percent of Republicans saying they were open to change. Just over a quarter of independents say they might change their mind.
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