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SINGAPORE – Employment and cost of living weighed heavily on Singaporeans’ minds as they headed to the polls in July this year amid the Covid-19 pandemic, according to a survey of the general election results.
Political diversity was also a key consideration among the nation’s youngest and best-educated voters.
And across all age groups, there was a drop in the proportion of people who thought the ruling Popular Action Party (PAP) was credible, while the opposite was true for the opposition Workers Party (WP).
These are some of the key findings of the Institute for Political Studies (IPS) survey that was presented on Thursday (October 1) in an online forum it had organized.
The expert group surveyed a sample of 4,027 Singaporeans of voting age using three methods: randomly using landlines, mobile phones, and online surveys, which were weighted to be representative of the national population in terms of age, gender, and race.
He had done the same after the general elections of 2006, 2011 and 2015.
In GE2020, the PAP vote percentage decreased by almost nine percentage points from the previous elections in 2015, to 61.24%.
The July 10 elections also saw the WP make another breakthrough by beating the PAP to win the Sengkang group’s constituency constituency, its second GRC.
Issues that matter to voters
As in previous polls, respondents cited the “need for good and efficient government” as the top priority on a list of 15 issues.
A new item on this year’s list that was among the top three issues was the government’s handling of the Covid-19 pandemic. Nearly nine out of 10 voters surveyed said it was “important” or “very important.”
But the top three issues that saw the steepest rise in “very important” ratings compared to 2015 were the employment situation, the cost of living, and the need for different views in Parliament.
Employment and cost of living were the focus of attention for people ages 30 to 54 in low- to middle-income households; while having greater political diversity attracted more younger voters aged 21 to 29 who hold professional, managerial, executive and technical positions (PMET).
“Both sets of considerations were developed in GE2020 but between different groups of voters,” said the IPS research team.
But the two are not mutually exclusive, said Dr. Gillian Koh, an IPS principal investigator who led the survey’s research team.
She explained: “Within the low to middle income band, respondents felt that the employment situation stemming from the pandemic challenged their sense of security.
“Some will have responded that they support checks and balances and diverse voices in Parliament and therefore may have explained the shift from support to the PAP to the opposition, but the driver was the basic issues and not (diversity politics) per se same “.
Drop in perceived credibility of PAP
Overall, the proportion of respondents who found the PAP credible fell from 93% in 2015 to 86% in 2020.
While the percentage who fully agreed that the PAP is credible was similar to 2015, those who said they simply “agreed” with the statement fell from 63% in 2015 to 57% in 2020. This is a comeback. to before 2015 levels.
The party’s perceived credibility fell across all age groups, and the drop in positive ratings was most pronounced among those with a high school education and diploma, those with low incomes, those living in one- to three-room flats of the Board of Trustees. Housing and men.
In contrast, the credibility of the WP increased among respondents of all age groups.
The rebound was led by PMET, those with post-secondary qualifications (ITE and junior college), those living in one- to three-bedroom flats, and women.
IPS noted that both PMETs and those in the lowest housing category found the WP credible, meaning it won supporters from both ends of the socioeconomic spectrum.
“There were increases (in perceived credibility) especially for the WP, compared to the previous three surveys when they had the same average score,” said Teo Kay Key, IPS Social Lab postdoctoral fellow, who is part of the survey team.
Less conservative, more in pluralistic categories and swing
Compared to 2015, the proportion of people classified as politically conservative fell by more than half, from 44.3% to 18.5%.
They are defined in the survey as those who do not agree with the need for a change in the electoral system, checks and balances, or different voices in Parliament.
Those in the swing category – defined as having mixed opinions compared to pluralists and conservatives – rose dramatically by more than 20 percentage points to 59.2%.
Pluralists, or those who want more political diversity, rose slightly by about four percentage points to 22.4 percent.
Dr. Teo called the rise in the swing category “surprising” given that one would have expected stronger growth in the proportion of pluralists amid calls for a greater opposition presence in Parliament.
“Maybe people want some kind of representation and some checks and balances, but not all the way to the pluralistic end,” he said.
“These demands may have been tempered by other governance issues, such as the need for efficient government, which is one of the three main issues (that shape voting decisions) among the three categories.”
While pluralists tend to be younger and wealthier, what stood out this year was the increase in their share between lower-income households earning less than $ 2,000 a month and those with only post-secondary qualifications.
IPS said this points to two effects occurring.
First, the constant tendency of those in the highest socioeconomic class to support political pluralism; and second, the effects of basic issues at the other end of the socio-economic spectrum, so that respondents felt that a political opposition was necessary in Parliament.
National University of Singapore sociologist Tan Ern Ser, who was part of the survey team, said the findings indicate that socioeconomic class and age are important factors in determining voters’ perceptions and concerns.
“Those in their 40s are the interleaved generation that has to care for both the young and the elderly. During Covid-19, they are the ones in danger of losing their jobs.
“Their sense of income and job insecurity may have influenced the way they voted in these elections.”
The emergence of credible opposition parties over time could also affect the way Singaporeans vote, he added.
“All things being equal, if we see that one or more of these parties gain credibility, the PAP’s share of votes will be reduced.”
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