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BANGKOK: A pro-democracy movement led by student groups has accelerated in Thailand in recent months, with some activists openly calling for reforms of the kingdom’s impregnable monarchy.
Tens of thousands have turned out for a show of force in Bangkok this weekend, defying the prime minister’s warnings that the nation could be “engulfed in flames” if they go too far.
This is what we know:
WHAT DO THE PROTESTERS WANT?
The protesters are demonstrating against the government of Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha.
The former army chief led a coup in 2014 and kept the kingdom under military rule for five years.
Under the military rule, a new constitution was drawn up before last year’s elections.
Prayut was chosen to lead a civilian government, a victory that analysts say was affected by the provisions of the new charter.
The protesters say the whole process was a failure and are calling for the parliament to be dissolved, the constitution rewritten and the harassment they face end.
READ: Thai protesters repeat demands for monarchy reforms at biggest rally since 2014
They also have a list of 10 demands for the monarchy, including the removal of a defamation law that protects the powerful royal family from criticism.
The law is one of the harshest of its kind in the world, carrying a jail term of up to 15 years per charge.
BECAUSE RIGHT NOW?
Discontent has been simmering since February, when leaders of an opposition party popular with young people were excluded from politics.
Many protesters say the move against the Future Forward Party was politically motivated.
A pandemic lockdown, which brought Thailand’s economy into free fall, exposed the gulf between the billionaire class and the poor.
And in June, prominent activist Wanchalearm Satsaksit, who had been living in self-exile in neighboring Cambodia, disappeared.
Savvy Thai activists on social media lit up Twitter with their demands for answers.
The online campaign spread offline in mid-July and started a wave of protests across the country, with as many as 30,000 in attendance this weekend in the largest demonstration since the 2014 coup.
Student activist Parit Chiwarak during protests in the Thai capital Bangkok on September 20, 2020 (Photo: Pichayada Promchertchoo).
WE HAVE SEEN THAI PROTESTS BEFORE. WHAT IS DIFFERENT?
It is true that Thailand has experienced a cycle of violent street protests and military coups for decades.
But in the past, the protest movements had great financial and political influence behind them.
Today’s student protesters say there is no single leader, a strategy inspired in part by the Hong Kong protests.
Daring to tackle the taboo subject of monarchy is also a novelty.
Under the constitution, royals, including the super-rich King Maha Vajiralongkorn, are supposed to stay out of politics, but they have enormous influence.
Since the king took the throne in 2016, he has made unprecedented changes, taking direct control of the palace fortune and moving two army units under his command.
At his side are the arch-royalist military and powerful billionaire clans.
A beverage vendor pushes his car past a police line as anti-government protesters participate in a pro-democracy rally in Bangkok on September 20, 2020 (Photo: AFP / Mladen ANTONOV).
WHAT IS THE REACTION?
Mixed. The student-led protests have garnered support from a wide demographic, including many from the working class.
The movement has also spread to high schools across the country, with teenagers tying white ribbons of solidarity in their hair and on backpacks.
But pro-royalist groups have held their own smaller counter-demonstrations with mostly older protesters enraged by the alleged affront to the monarchy.
Army chief Apirat Kongsompong has alarmingly warned that “hatred of the nation” is an incurable disease.
Prayut has said Thailand would be “engulfed in flames” if students push too hard, although he promised “softer measures” against protesters over the weekend.
So far, more than two dozen protesters have been arrested, charged with sedition and breaking coronavirus rules, and released on bail.
READ: Thai Prime Minister vows to keep the peace during planned anti-government protest
An anti-government protester participates in a pro-democracy rally in Bangkok on September 20, 2020 (Photo: AFP / Mladen ANTONOV)
WHAT COMES NEXT?
Protesters have called for another rally on Thursday outside parliament as MPs debate possible constitutional changes.
They also want a general strike on October 14.
But beyond that, it is difficult to predict.
Addressing the monarchy, Paul Chambers of Naresuan University says the protesters “did indeed get the genie out of the bottle.”
Historians, and even student leaders themselves, have raised the specter of an earlier student-led movement.
That ended in October 1976 in what became known as the Thammasat University massacre.
Students protesting against the return of a military dictator were shot, beaten to death and lynched by state forces and royalist mobs.
Matt Wheeler of the International Crisis Group points to the “clear pattern” of the state using lethal force against pro-democracy protesters.
“There is so much at stake for those who benefit from the status quo that it would be unwise to dismiss it,” he told AFP.
But scrutiny of Thailand by Western allies means the use of force would not be an option this time around, surmises Titipol Phakdeewanich, a political analyst at Ubon Ratchathani University.
If they crack down and the students die, “that would be the end of the legitimacy of the military.”
