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NEW DELHI – As coronavirus cases continue to rise in India, only the second country after the US to cross the 5 million milestone, questions have been raised as to whether herd immunity is an option for India now .
Some epidemiologists believe that it is already occurring in small areas where high levels of infection have been followed by a weakening of the Covid-19 virus.
Others believe it is too early to predict or unpromising.
Herd immunity is usually produced by a vaccine or by natural immunity after a significant number of people are infected and then helps to block the spread of the virus.
While the concept of natural herd immunity remains unproven and even controversial due to the increased risk of mortality, recent HIV-positive surveys in India have indicated that the spread of the virus is much greater than official statistics have revealed in the India.
A seroprevalence survey conducted by the Indian Council for Medical Research (ICMR) found that India had an estimated 6.4 million infections in May, when official figures in mid-month put the number of positive cases at 85,940.
Noting this, Indian epidemiologist Jayaprakash Muliyil said that this has made a strong case for herd immunity.
“Now India has a huge population and the transmission of the virus is occurring more or less freely regardless of what is done according to our sero surveys,” he said.
“In areas with dense populations, the virus came under control when it reached between 55% and 60% (of those infected). The formation of new cases was greatly reduced. Many of the so-called containment areas of the past now produce very little. cases. “
He added: “On the other hand, many of the areas that were previously considered disease free are showing cases.”
India has done everything possible to prevent the virus from spreading, including a strict blockade to break the chain of transmission. But the gradual relaxation of restrictions with a view to preventing further damage to the economy caused the movement of people, resulting in the virus traveling to different parts of the country.
The strict lockdown has not stopped the number of viruses from rising, even as it has improved India’s health capabilities to fight the virus.
On Thursday (September 17), 90,123 new cases were reported in the last 24 hours.
India now has 5.02 million infections, the second highest after the United States, which has 6.59 million.
For now, the government is not considering herd immunity as a strategy at all. Instead, it has encouraged keeping vulnerable members, primarily the elderly and people with comorbidities, safe at home and mandated the use of masks, social distancing, and maintaining hygiene amid the resumption of economic activity. .
“We are very far from herd immunity. It is quite possible that in the days that go by, with more people infected, there may be possibilities. We are not in a position to say herd immunity at this time,” said Dr. Rajni Kant of the Council. Indian Medical Research.
“Herd immunity at this time is not a (government) strategy for coronavirus control. The current strategy is to wear a mask, following social distancing and good hygiene with regular hand washing.”
Still, there are silver lights in India’s Covid-19 fight. The country’s mortality rate of 1.64% is the lowest in the world and the recovery is among the highest with a recovery rate of 78% to 79%.
When it comes to herd immunity, the jury is also out on whether it works or not. Take Sweden, which has avoided a strict lockdown and instead emphasized individual responsibility to reduce the spread of Covid-19, in what was seen as an attempt to increase herd immunity among the population.
But the country has the fifth highest per capita death rate in Europe.
Dr Prof. K. Srinath Reddy, Chairman of the Public Health Foundation of India (PHFI) and a member of the ICMR National Working Group on Covid-19, described herd immunity as a “nebulous concept”.
“We don’t know if the threshold (for herd immunity) is 50, 60 or 70 percent. We don’t know how long immunity lasts. But relying on herd immunity as a foolproof solution that will set us free in the near future is not an expectation. very realistic “.
He noted that a lot now depends on how the virus spreads in rural areas and smaller cities. In urban parts, an increase in cases has brought challenges such as oxygen supply shortages in some parts.
“Right now we will have to wait and see what is happening in the towns and small villages. If it continues to grow, we will see greater challenges in terms of health infrastructure.”
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