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SINGAPORE: Yoshihide Suga is now officially the next prime minister of Japan to replace Shinzo Abe, who resigned for health reasons.
Unlike many of his cabinet colleagues, some of whom are potential future prime ministerial candidates, who may be scions of former cabinet ministers, prime ministers, and parliamentarians, the 71-year-old son of a strawberry farmer has been branded as an “unlikely leader” By international media.
BREAKING THE ELITE MOLD
Even his former boss, Abe, came from a family with a political legacy. Abe’s father was a former foreign minister and his grandfather a former prime minister.
Shinjiro Koizumi, the Environment Minister, is the son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. Taro Kono, the defense minister, is the son of the former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Yohei Kono.
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The mother of Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Taro Aso is the daughter of the iconic former post-war Prime Minister Yoshida Shigeru.
Aso is also a descendant of one of the founders of modern Japan, Okubo Toshimichi, while his wife is the daughter of former Prime Minister Zenko Suzuki and his sister, Princess Tomohito of Mikasa, is married to the Japanese imperial family.
FILE PHOTO: Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso answers questions at the annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank in Washington, USA, Oct. 18, 2019. REUTERS / James Lawler Duggan / File Photo
All of these individuals were destined for political office, while Suga was clearly an outlier.
Rather, Suga left the family farming business and became a casual worker, including a cardboard factory worker, a security guard, a low-paid newsroom assistant, and manual labor at the fish market in London. Tsukiji now closed to save money for university studies. .
To be sure, those humble roots allow him to empathize with those in the working class in Japan who are affected by the economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic and the global economic slowdown stemming from trade tensions between the United States and China.
Your profile is great for connecting with people struggling through tough global economic circumstances, who in the past have felt oblivious to the policies of Japan’s political elite.
When Suga decided to become a politician in Japan’s highly competitive liberal democratic political system, the international media reported that he visited a few hundred residences a day and tens of thousands in total in his Yokohoma district to collect votes, quickly. wearing multiple pairs of shoes in the process.
Suga gradually rose through the political hierarchy thanks to his hard work and dedication.
The new prime minister is known to have a strict and grueling regimen, starting his day at 5am every day, including a disciplined exercise program, and sometimes hosting up to three business dinners a night.
He is a self-made man, no princely legacy, no aristocratic air, no political dynasties, just an affable and no-frills “uncle” – young Japanese have affectionately labeled him “Uncle Reiwa” afterwards, in April 2019, released “Reiwa”. As the name of the new imperial era of Japan coinciding with the takeover of Emperor Naruhito.
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Suga was accused of unveiling the new imperial era in 2019, a job that earned him the affectionate nickname ‘Uncle Reiwa’ AFP / Kazuhiro NOGI
His modesty and inscrutability may give him a broader appeal among the Japanese public than Abe, who was a lightning rod for attacks by the opposition and the liberal press due to his strong and decisive leadership style.
SUGA THE CONSENSUS BUILDER
Critics dubbed him a “replacement for Abe,” as some observers saw him as a warmer seat for the next prime minister, particularly if the next election can be held next year.
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But, in the context of Japanese socio-political culture, since Japanese leaders are not expected to be illiberal strongmen or abrasive alpha leaders.
Rather, the ideal Japanese leader is a consensus builder, aggregating the interests of all stakeholders, mediating between different political factions and interest groups, and responding to the socio-political interests of Japanese society as a whole.
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In this sense, Suga is a consensus builder. His most recent tenure as Chief Cabinet Secretary, the longest in Japanese history, gives him a holistic view of Japanese politics, its political elites, and its machinery.
In fact, he has already garnered crucial consensus from political factions within his party, including the largest and most powerful 98-member Hosoda faction led by former Chief Cabinet Secretary Hiroyuki Hosoda and of which Abe is a member.
It also has the support of the 54-member Taro Aso faction, which, as the second-largest group, together with the Takeshita faction, within the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), provides a basic majority.
Suga quickly garnered the support of several leading LDP factions, even before he officially announced his candidacy AFP / Charly TRIBALLEAU
Getting the go-ahead from both factions will also help Suga gain support from big business and agricultural lobbyists that are close to him, which could be important in addressing the pandemic and economic growth.
Some factions in Japanese politics also have clear leanings toward foreign policy. While some have a close relationship with political networks in Washington, others, such as the faction of LDP Secretary General Toshihiro Nikai, have cultivated close working relationships with China.
Having such ties would give Suga greater support in foreign policy matters and greater leverage to lead Japan through the tensions between the two countries.
Suga has built a reputation for being a quiet, results-oriented leader with a low-key, behind-the-scenes negotiating style that gets the job done subtly without much fanfare and self-promotion.
Hence, the media has aptly dubbed him a “problem solver” and a “veteran shadow power”.
UNDERSTANDING JAPANESE POLICY
Only those less well versed in Japanese politics will regard Suga’s profile as a weakness.
Wary of making sharp and abrupt changes, Japanese cultural leanings do not like knee-jerk reactions and prefer gradual changes to accommodate external shocks, which in this case are the pandemic and tensions between China and the United States.
Since Suga is known as a policy enforcer, some harsh critics see him as a sycophantic Abe as well. But they may not understand the Japanese affinity for policy continuity.
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Furthermore, Abe’s policies, though criticized in Japan’s competitive and pluralistic liberal democratic system, have placed Japan in an advantageous position with manageable infection rates, comparatively low death rates, and relatively less pronounced economic decline compared to its G7 peers right now.
It is also important to note that the quality of loyalty, known as chusei, is of utmost importance in Japanese culture.
However, others who call him an “interim” prime minister, who has yet to be tested in a national election, fail to understand that the Japanese political system is backed by a highly effective and prestigious bureaucracy that enjoys broad political legitimacy with it. people and keeps things moving forward regardless of the Prime Minister’s changes.
With a strong bureaucracy behind him, Suga can focus on what he does best: forging a social, economic and political consensus among the Japanese people, institutions and organizations, while mobilizing Japanese resources to combat the current pandemic crisis.
With Suga at the helm, Japan is in good hands to go through a difficult period of an ongoing pandemic and ongoing economic challenges amid rapidly worsening US-China trade tensions.
Dr. Lim Tai Wei is an adjunct senior researcher at the East Asian Institute at the National University of Singapore.
