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TOKYO: Months before announcing his resignation, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe launched a policy change that could allow the Japanese military for the first time to plan strikes against ground targets in China and other parts of Asia.
The Japan Self-Defense Forces are geared towards stopping attackers in the air and at sea. The policy change would force the military to create a doctrine to target enemy sites on the ground, a mission that would require the purchase of long-range weapons such as cruise missiles.
If adopted by the next government, the policy would mark one of the most significant changes in Japan’s military posture since the end of World War II. It reflects Abe’s long-standing drive for a more robust military and Tokyo’s growing concern about Chinese influence in the region.
The Japanese government is concerned about increased Chinese military activity around the disputed islets in the East China Sea.
“The main reason for our action is China. We haven’t really emphasized that too much, but the security decisions we make are due to China,” said Masahisa Sato, a lawmaker from Abe’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), who served as a deputy defense minister and a deputy foreign minister, said in an interview.
Japan renounced its right to wage war after World War II, which made the issue of attacking targets on land, which would involve attacks on foreign soil, controversial with its Asian neighbors, particularly China.
Abe said last month that he would resign due to his deteriorating health. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, who is seen as less aggressive than Abe but closely aligned with him, is expected to win the race to replace him as party leader and become prime minister.
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GOVERNMENT POLICY
Abe instructed top defense policy makers in June to come up with LDP proposals for the military that included a ground attack or strike doctrine.
That proposal will become government policy if it is included in a revised national defense strategy, which seems likely, according to two experts, including the Acting Secretary General of the PLD, Tomomi Inada.
Men dressed in Japanese Imperial military uniforms visit the Yasukuni Shrine on the 75th anniversary of Japan’s surrender in World War II, amid the COVID-19 pandemic, in Tokyo, Japan, on August 15, 2020 (Photo : REUTERS / Issei Kato).
“I don’t think there is much opposition in the PLD,” Inada told Reuters. “That direction does not change even with a new prime minister.”
The military can now use long-range missiles to attack ships. He believes that those plans are justified because he needs to be able to destroy the weapons that threaten Japan. The ground attack proposal is framed with the same reasoning, according to former Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera.
Therefore, proponents say, Japan’s laws will not need to change. During his eight years in office, Abe lobbied but did not achieve his goal of revising the pacifist Article Nine of the postwar Constitution.
Japan’s National Security Council, which Abe heads and includes key cabinet officials including Suga, will meet on Friday to discuss defense strategy.
American-made BGM-109 Tomahawk cruise missiles would be an option for ground attack weapons, said Katsutoshi Kawano, who until last year was Japan’s highest military officer, the Chief of Staff of the Self-Defense Forces.
Japan’s military has long been restricted to self-defense, and the country is heavily dependent on the US under a bilateral security alliance. (Photo: AFP / Brendan Smialowski)
Tomahawks can hit targets 2,500 km away. That would put most of China and much of the Russian Far East within range.
“Japan could probably be capable of attack in five years,” Kawano said. “However, a complete attack package that includes attack satellites and electronic warfare components would be much more expensive and take more than 10 years to purchase.”
Meanwhile, Japan would have to depend on the United States for intelligence and surveillance.
POLITICS
To move the proposal forward, the next government will have to complete a revised defense strategy and a medium-term procurement plan by the end of December, before the Defense Ministry submits its annual budget request.
That could meet resistance from Buddhist-backed LDP coalition partner Komeito, who fears such a move will antagonize China and threaten Japan’s war-renouncing constitution.
“It could spark an arms race and increase tension. It would be technically difficult and would require a large investment,” Komeito leader Natsuo Yamaguchi said in an interview. “This is something to think about seriously under the new prime minister.”
Even some LDP security hawks, including one of Suga’s leadership rivals, former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba, see a potential downside to acquiring long-range cruise missiles.
“What if the United States asks Japan to fire them and we don’t want to?” I ask.
