[ad_1]
CANBERRA: The outcome of the leadership elections of Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) on September 14 is a foregone conclusion and a choice in name only.
Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga is almost certain to succeed Shinzo Abe as Japan’s next prime minister on September 16.
This is a surprising change from just three months ago, when his political position was on much more shaky ground.
The factions of the PLD remain the dominant actors in the party’s presidential elections. Historically, its main function has been to elevate its leaders to the position of prime minister.
Becoming president of the PLD and prime minister of Japan has traditionally required the support of a coalition of factions that command the majority of the members of the PLD Diet.
READ: Comment: Will replacing Abe leave Japan in limbo?
READ: Comment: Japan’s longest-serving prime minister has run out of time on unfinished business
NOT A REAL CONTEST
In math, Suga, although nominally factionless, is a clear winner against this criterion, especially since the leadership vote will be closed to rank and file members due to controversial claims about the difficulty of an all-party vote.
He has the backing of five of the seven PLD factions, plus a dozen PLD MPs not affiliated with any faction. This will secure around 276 votes for Suga, representing at least 70 percent of all members of the PLD Diet.
These figures suggest that the election will not be a real contest. The September 14 poll will be designed by the old guard of the PLD, and the party’s Executive Council will deliberately disenfranchise the party’s rank-and-file members to produce its preferred result.
The newly announced PLD prefectural branch presidential primaries to elect three delegates from each branch to vote in the elections are unlikely to alter the expected outcome.
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe cheers with LDP members during the party’s annual convention in Tokyo, Japan, on March 25, 2018 (Photo: REUTERS / Issei Kato).
The latest polls also show that Suga outperforms candidates from rival factions in public opinion: he has 38% support compared to 25% for Shigeru Ishiba and 5% for Fumio Kishida.
Ultimately it all comes down to the fact that the Kishida and Ishiba factions can garner only 66 votes, or 17 percent of the LDP diet members. They seem resigned to using the election as a test to build support for their offers in anticipation of the party’s next presidential election in September 2021.
From this perspective, Suga is seen as only leading an interim administration.
READ: In the race to replace Japanese Abe, the loyal Suga emerges as a strong contender
Other potential contenders for LDP president and prime minister, Defense Minister Taro Kono, and Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, have expressed no interest in pursuing what they see as a lost cause.
Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso and a staunch Abe ally have said privately that Taro Kono “still needs more experience to become a good prime minister.” Koizumi has accused the party executive of lying about the reason for excluding the party’s rank and file from the vote.
READ: Comment: Reaching the 2021 Olympics is a victory Japan needs
A FACTO ABE ADMINISTRATION?
What are the implications of a Suga win?
First, from a political party perspective, it will confirm the continued importance of the PLD factions as key players in party presidential elections.
Second, from a Japanese government and political perspective, a Suga administration will ensure policy continuity.
Suga has not only been an avid supporter and advocate for Abe’s policies, but has also explicitly pledged to continue them, stating: “I will take Prime Minister Abe’s initiatives and do my best to carry them forward.”
Suga has stated that he will take responsibility for Abenomics and will not alter the government’s existing agreement with the Bank of Japan on monetary easing. Suga is also likely to follow Abe’s foreign policies.
FILE PHOTO: Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe (left) speaks with Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga before Suga answers questions during a session of the lower house budget committee in parliament in Tokyo, Japan, on February 20, 2014. REUTERS / Yuya Shino
This raises the question of whether Japan will end what is, in reality, a de facto Abe administration.
The fact that Suga lacks charisma, projects an image of a political official, and has modest popular appeal also suits the former prime minister. Abe’s legacy is unlikely to be overshadowed or challenged by Suga.
This could be another reason why Abe agreed with LDP Secretary General Toshihiro Nikai and Deputy Prime Minister Aso that he should switch his long-standing support for the faction’s leader, Fumio Kishida, to succeed him in Suga. .
The reality was that Kishida faced certain defeat against Ishiba, Abe’s arch rival, who has always had strong support from members of the local LDP party and who also represents a much greater long-term challenge to Abe’s legacy. .
READ: Comment: Japan really needs to improve coronavirus testing
READ: Comment: Japan’s response to COVID-19 is paralyzed by bureaucracy
MANY QUESTIONS REMAIN
Suga is adept at avoiding questions about politics and politics and avoiding accountability as a government spokesperson, including covering up and defending the indefensible scandals that repeatedly plagued the Abe administration. This begs the question: Will Suga remain Abe’s spokesperson even after he becomes prime minister?
Abe’s role beyond the PLD presidential elections is also unclear. Will you stay on the diet? Will you run things behind the scenes?
READ: Shinzo Abe from Japan sought to reactivate the economy, fulfill the conservative agenda
A more difficult question to answer is whether Suga’s government, like Abe’s, will be a Kantei-led administration.
Under this system, those recruited to the executive prime minister from the political and bureaucratic world play a prominent role in pursuing political initiatives on behalf of the prime minister, subordinating both the ruling party and the Kasumigaseki ministries in the policy-making process.
One certainty is that Abe has undoubtedly set the bar higher for the prime minister’s leadership. It will be a difficult act to follow.
Aurelia George Mulgan is a Professor in the College of Humanities and Social Sciences at the University of New South Wales, Canberra.
