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TOKYO – The race to succeed outgoing Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is intensifying, with a wave of brokering and maneuvering in late-night meetings between factions of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).
At least five former cabinet ministers have said they will compete for the top job, while three sitting ministers said they will discuss the way forward with their colleagues.
But experts say Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, 71, Abe’s loyal lieutenant, is easily the front-runner if he chooses to run.
Suga has previously said he was not interested, but he has high public recognition as the main spokesman for the Abe government since he took power in December 2012.
Still, the details of the party’s internal poll to elect the next PLD president, including when and how, remain undecided and will only be resolved at a meeting of the party’s general council on Tuesday (September 1).
But local media on Saturday floated to September 15 as a possible date for a vote to decide Abe’s successor. As the PLD forms the government, the party leader also traditionally becomes Prime Minister.
The PLD usually announces the election of its president one month in advance.
In this scenario, Diet legislators and rank-and-file members from across the country will cast their vote, but it will take time as ballots will need to be mailed across the country.
But Abe’s abrupt resignation on Friday due to an outbreak of chronic illness comes a year before his term expired in September next year.
This triggers the possibility of a simplified extraordinary election, where the deputies and representatives of the local sections of the party can vote.
The PLD now has 394 legislators in the Diet, and since each of the 47 chapters of the prefecture is assigned three votes, it means that Abe’s successor will be decided by 535 voters of the party.
While the PLD president has a three-year term, the winner this time will carry out the remainder of Abe’s term with a vote still pending for September next year.
Abe has said that he will remain prime minister until his successor is elected. The Cabinet will remain in charge, but will not be able to adopt new policies.
The victor will inherit a country that is more confident on the world stage, but beset by internal problems, including mounting debt, an economy hit by Covid-19, and a declining population.
He or she will have to oversee the Tokyo Olympics, postponed until next July, and prepare for national elections to form the government in October next year.
There is no apparent heir, leaving the field open for what the national media calls the “post-Abe” era.
Abe himself declined to give his preference, saying on Friday: “There have been many promising names and I hope the best candidate will be chosen.”
For any candidate to officially enter the fray, he must first obtain 20 nominations from the members of the PLD Diet. Although Mr. Suga does not belong to any faction, he has a lot of influence within the PLD and the government.
Five former cabinet ministers have announced their ambitions, including former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba, 63.
He regularly tops polls as the public’s PM of choice and has strong support among regional PLD members, but is less popular with lawmakers due to his frequent criticism of Mr. Abe.
Former Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida, 63, was once Abe’s preferred successor, but concerns have been raised about his lack of charisma and public presence to fill Abe’s big shoes.
Former Internal Affairs Minister Seiko Noda, 59, and former Defense Minister Tomomi Inada, 61, have said they are eager to run and would become Japan’s Prime Minister in the unlikely event that they are able to gather enough party support to prevail.
Former education minister Hakubun Shimomura, 66, now head of the PLD’s electoral strategy committee, is also seeking the highest position, but is seen as an outsider.
Meanwhile, the acting cabinet who are interested include Defense Chief Taro Kono, 57, Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi, 64, and Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, 39. .
Kono, who is popular for his candid comments and knowledge of social media, told reporters yesterday that he will “think hard about participating in the elections.”
Motegi also said that he will discuss the issue with his faction colleagues, while Koizumi shyly said: “The prime minister’s job is not something that can be done alone. Without the support of my colleagues, I cannot get to the starting point ”.
Meanwhile, Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Taro Aso, 79, stepped down and told a party faction meeting on Friday night that he will not participate in the elections.
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