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SINGAPORE – Singapore will need to tread carefully as it eases its circuit breaker measurements amid the Covid-19 outbreak, as there may still be a “big spike” of infections on the way, one expert warned.
“It is unlikely that we have exceeded our peak,” said Associate Professor Alex Cook, vice dean of research at the Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health at National University of Singapore, during an interview with The Straits Times.
“Maybe (we are) beyond the peak of the first wave of infections, but if in a period after the circuit breaker, we are not moving towards a situation where we are controlling the epidemic – (that is, where) we are leaving it remain unmitigated, so I think we can expect to have a big spike in the future. “
More than 25,000 people in Singapore have been infected with the coronavirus.
While the country’s total case count continues to rise, with hundreds of new infections reported daily, the numbers begin to stabilize. The vast majority of new cases are foreign workers living in dormitories.
China and Germany saw an uptick in infections after easing blocking restrictions.
“If we let our guard down completely and come back to life as it was … you will end up with something that turns into exponential growth in the number of infections,” said Professor Cook.
In the case of Germany, “they entered the running of the bulls before us, they left the running of the bulls before us, and they have seen a small upturn since then,” he said.
“That may suggest that they have become too relaxed … So I think we will adapt the response quite carefully in the coming months to make sure we do not relax too soon.”
Singapore’s economy will reopen in phases after June 1, with the easing of tighter measures from the switch period.
The government has said it will closely monitor the number of new infections to decide how soon more restrictions can be lifted. If the situation worsens again, the circuit breaker measurements could be restarted.
Professor Cook, an expert in infectious disease models, had previously correctly predicted that Covid-19 infections could reach 10,000 or 20,000 in Singapore in late April.
As the restrictions are eased, it will be important to keep an eye out for not only new but unrelated cases, Professor Cook added.
This is because such cases are “an indication that we may be losing infections,” he said.
When asked Wednesday (May 13) what might be the worst case scenario, he suggested that if the country did nothing to stop the spread of the coronavirus, it could see as many as tens of thousands of new infections per day.
Professor Cook said studies show that, during the 2009 swine flu (or H1N1 flu) outbreak in Singapore, about 17 percent of the adult population was infected in the first wave.
“If we include children, the figure is probably closer to 20 percent … that is, around one million people in Singapore,” said Professor Cook.
“We don’t know exactly, but the shape of the epidemic curve suggests that at its peak, around 50,000 people could have been infected daily” here during the swine flu outbreak.
Social distancing and staying home should continue, he said.
“When we get off the circuit breaker, it won’t be normal life for some time yet,” added Professor Cook.
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